Cobra's Market View

Have posted my May preview here:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/05 ... ay-update/

Today or tomorrow should be the ST low days - If not, then the market could have some problems.

-D

Here is the FOMC preview.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/


I think the most interesting point is the one at the very bottom about the tendencies in to early May.

-D

Long time without a 10 min buy signal - study I have never done before.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

Definitely something to be aware of in your positioning.

-D

An update on my opex preview

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

I was WRONG - the persistent bull is ALIVE and WELL!

-D

In reply to a question, I provided a bit more of a view here http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04152016-intra-day-update/#comment-2625677307 Bottom line - things are still unclear - If SPX had closed down at least 6pts today, then the scenario probabilities would be clearer... Interestingly, only...

USO ca LOD, likewise XOM. SPY is not following oil tick for tick today, so far. it only follows it tick for tick when Oil is going up...... :roll: Actually it only follows tick for tick when it does. It's a periodic and intraday kind of thing. A 'fashion', one might say. It happened with the Euro, ...

USO ca LOD, likewise XOM. SPY is not following oil tick for tick today, so far. it only follows it tick for tick when Oil is going up...... :roll: Remember Oil peaked on 22-March and trended down till 5th of April.... while the SPX bottomed on the 24th, rallied to the 1st, bottomed on the 7th and r...

Just a little research on what has happened during the opex period after trend days higher on opex Wednesday.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

D

K447 wrote:

Denali92 wrote:...
Cobra's site always gets it shortly after I publish....

What site is your primary publishing location?

Pug was nice enough to create space on his site, so all of the previews go there.

https://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-tu ... ints-2016/

D

Opex preview was posted in the next day edges. The opex bollo band study is there - pretty interesting to see what has happened when we did what we did yesterday with respect to the upper bollo. All of my stuff is also available here with a slight time lag https://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turnin...

I was hoping to post my April opex preview this morning. Alas, given today's move, I decided that I needed to do some new research on surges during opex to or above the upper bollo band. As this research is important (and was on my To Do list, but not done), I will complete it and publish the previe...

... as the end of the week was Thursday, the 24th of March ... Are there posted seasonality charts for 'first trading day of week' and 'last trading day of week'? As opposed to Mondays and Fridays... http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/chartbook/227908289; COBRA has everything when it comes to st...

Just thinking out loud here... the last WEAK ending to a week this year was Friday, Feb 5th employment day.... in fact, there have only been two RED last day of the week (as the end of the week was Thursday, the 24th of March) candlesticks this year. Note: Both times we bottomed briefly on the Monda...

Denali, thank you for the posting yesterday; With the moves last Friday and yesterday, this has not been a straightforward April so far. ... http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04072016-intra-day-update/ Happy to try to help with providing the history.... Market is volatile and not normal right no...

Cobra wrote:the rebound shall have small legs.

Shorts covering due to fears of a Yellen rip from 5:30pm .... but with Volcker there, I am sure he will keep things in perspective.

-D

5 of the last 6 months, we have made new lows for the month as we approach opex week.

Did not happen in March, but it was close.

Here are the details and more

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

-D

I have NEW found respect for the power of seasonality and April 1st! Since 2007, there have only been 2 Gap downs on employment day of greater than 10 pts that closed in the GREEN. 2-Oct-15 - Major bottom on the Tuesday before - opened down 24 closed up 29 5-Dec-08 - Major bottom that day and a 100p...

One other thing to note - MID and RUT really tracked oil while SPX did not .... so MID and RUT may show more pronounced strength or weakness depending on crude....

I sense we will know a lot more next Tuesday once the seasonality is out of the way...

-D

I would disagree that they tend to be wrong - other than bullish 1st of April seasonality.... you have the general April tendencies supporting you. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03312016-market-outlook-test-ema20/ My work definitely says a correction for a few days .... the challenge of April...

The persistent BULL is impressive! From the analysis I showed here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04012016-intra-day-update/ The gaps have never been filled! Must admit I could see the gap being faded.... but gap fill? Did not seem likely given the history of SPY gap downs from a high RSI. of...