Cobra's Market View

Huge reversal in 10 year bond, not sure equities can keep ignoring what bonds are saying.

If it wasn't friday, seems like a reversal is at hand. VVIX at HOD

ccash04 wrote:Bond yields telling the story, equities have to eventually pay attention, SPY seems like it ought to be 1% lower at least.

Bonds still selling off, 10 yr pushing 4.05%

Bond yields telling the story, equities have to eventually pay attention, SPY seems like it ought to be 1% lower at least.

Low volume meltup? Unless volume picks up just seems like it will drift higher though dollar strong, smalls weak, treasuries weak... seems like SPY should be down but no volume so just levitate until volume comes.

VVIX at HOD and VIX not down that much, VVIX has been perking up, so owning some puts or VIX calls not looking bad.

Think this continues up pretty quick until upper BB just above 418

There won't be a rebound until we waterfall lower, IMO. support is at 4135 overnight low.

Dollar strong, bonds weak weak, market should be well off surprising it is holding in there. smalls being up so much makes 0 sense to me

Bonds not playing along at all, think this can be sold into today, particularly qqq but even spy. Looking for a weak close.

Dollar up, Rates Up, Stocks also up... seems suspect, I am playing for a rug pull, hoping to retest 393 but it is just hope

I know semis are getting crushed but given moves in Bonds surprised to see the nasdaq down so much

Their QT is not really QT in the old sense where they are actively selling just letting securities mature. If they actively sold their MBS holdings not sure there would be a market anymore or interest rates for mortgages would be north of 10%.

10 yr testing 4.0% if it goes below that, hard to see a sustaining sell along with dollar weakness today.

trying to catch knives with calls is not fun, that being said seems overdone in short term given dollar not surging and credit spreads not widening. They are not confirming move down.

Seems like this selling is overdone, Dollar is lower, long end bonds recovering losses, support holding, VIX slightly falling... risk/reward skews higher today i think

Everyone is looking at the same green shoot. :D in my humble opinion, if this (markets in general) does not rocket up up today, this is last day to get out. Apple FINALLY broke down and has a ways to go, and QE restart test is a bit meh in britain, not good. Godspeed to anyone living in FLA. Second...

TLT just not getting anything going, hard to see tech really take off without long end bonds getting a bid

Everybody and their cousin is expecting a re=test of the FOMC range low. Wondering if the rule that if everybody expects it the market does something else may apply here. I'm curious to your source of everybody? I haven't seen any mention on any boards. Might be possible though! Futures Trader 71 i...

For me hard to get bullish until VIX spikes, also bonds getting offered hard again long end testing 52 week low