Cobra's Market View

Major move down in the dollar yesterday... where did all that money go? not into stocks... but into bonds. That's why stocks didn't do well yesterday, and bonds did. Big red flag. This rally is fugazi - finished topping up adding additional shorts over the past three trading sessions.. final add rig...

SPX up 40 handles +1.10%

VIX also up today +2.63%

Each point the SPX goes up is getting more and more expensive. You know what that leads to.

jademann wrote:Apparently, the last week of October is usually weak.

especially on mid-term election years, and even more so when there is a new democratic party in power

have been adding more short positions as my indicator approaches 50, will add more here until it tops out and comes down... and that's when the market will dive to either a higher low, or a lower low relative to 3500.

steeeaaaaady...

... meanwhile, UVXY hinting at what's to come... shot straight up right out of the gates on open and not looking back.. you know what that means

let's see if the VIX breaks out of this descending wedge today... it is looking like it wants to

VIX not playing along, about to turn positive for the day... can't recall too many times the VIX is positive on a day the SPX goes up 100 points, but I do remember what tends to happen after. loading up more shorts as we go higher here into the weekend close: Screenshot 2022-10-22 at 3.05.23 AM.png ...

Screenshot 2022-10-22 at 12.56.50 AM.png tagged 3740, this should be the top of the day - if we convincingly break above the rising wedge and also break above the declining RSI while while VIX correlation declines, then it will be time to flip long. until then, things are still lined up for the flu...

VIX now forming a falling wedge... the setup is near complete now

my momentum warning got triggered ( > 50%) - the flush down is about to happen...

VOLD divergence on the SPY... u what that also means... ciao

Over the years, I have learned not to go against certain seasonality setups... santa claus rally is one of them.

Last week of October dump is the other.

Continuing to keep shorts until then, and may flip long once November starts.

Rejection off the descending channel's top range:

VIX broke the trendline: ES at the top of the channel: BUUUUUUT we are entering last week of Oct, which is the worst week seasonality speaking so,,, you know what that means:

CBOE QUICKIE The VIX 40 Level https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A19eKEXoIzU Good perspective, it could be the case that we don't get over 40 on the VIX. Things are relative though, so it all depends on what expectations are and what unfolds. We'd need to have a crisis IMO for the VIX to spike - usual...

VIX daily is looking like it wants to setup an ascending triangle... so far, it refused to break the rising trendline even with all the market gains lately, a signal I've been carefully watching.

RISING WEDGE Break can be in any direction but is downward 60% of the time. https://thepatternsite.com/risewedge.html I've always wondered about bulkowski's info on this... other material i've read indicate it's predominantly bearish at >80%... there are different types which could be part of the r...

ES has broken the rising wedge... (4hr view) while the VIX trendline continues to hold (daily view)

bulls trying real hard to save the trend line.. which one will break first? daily VIX? or hourly ES?

usually, the longer time frame wins..

One more I'll share with you folks... on the ES we tagged many resistance points.. so y'all also know what means. I keep my charts plain and simple, I don't like noise. Peace.