Cobra's Market View

Hi Cobra.

I see a potential reversal today or tomorrow -- end of wave 5 is near.

If Europe closed down 3% == you figure we should have a bad close also.

Still bearish -- did not break flag channel.

To clarify more -- ES is the SP500 futures. I use the daily pivot.

11 ticks on ES. 4ticks equals one point. so 1243 pivot plus 11 ticks is 1245.75 stop on ES.

The ES pivot is actually 1243. I give it about 11 ticks -- if market maker cannot take out -- then prices will reverse and drop most likely.

dont give up yet on the bear flag -- until we take out the ES pivot. The Pivot is big resistance here at 1242.75

Any military war with any power -- would last a weekend. Greece military is weak.

A military coup is not a war with a neighbor -- but a potential civil war.
If the politics cannot function -- then you could have military control until a new goverment is formed and civil life is stable. I would hope wars on the European continent are now over.

my guess is we are in a wave 4 of minor c -- and have one more wave 5 push up to take us near 1307 SPX. Still not sure if wave 4 is a flat or if it will drop a bit?

I see potential bigger Inverse Head and Shoulder on ES with 1216 neckline. could get pullback here for right shoulder?

HI Cobra -- I am confused -- are you still saying the pullbacj should be 2 legged? Does that mean target of about 1190?

Cobra - what would it mean technically if SPY moves below the 121.5?

bonds - starting to find a bid again.

We could have a Descending Triangle reversal pattern? The open will tell us alot.

Plan is to not short until I get a reversal pattern and a move below 1128 ES

I think 1165 is about right. The money managers will not want a big selloff going into quarter end. So we should hold up in this range for a couple days -- barring any bad headline news.

Anything is possible -- you have to consider the risk/reward tradeoff. So part of it how far down do you think we will go and what is the potential upside if it comes. I dont see more than 10-15 points up on the ES.

Looks like we have a large rising wedge on ES

Thanks for your comments Cobra.