Cobra's Market View

Cletus open:

1) Nothing new since yesterday
2) Gap needs to be filled at 397 (roughly 3,970 SPX) at minimum so there is still upside possible but the market is trapped between 2 gaps

Cletus open:

1) Possibly going to fill the double gap at 369 before the rally resumes
2) Still on the stated path
3) Tech is strong today due to falling rates. This is something to watch.
4) Bearish moon cycles won out over bullish holiday seasonality. Bullish moon cycles resume next week.

Cletus Close:

1) Holiday effect might finally be kicking in as stocks rise
2) If so, the rally should last into next week when the seasonality breaks less bullish
3) Whole month of July is bullish. August and Sept are very bearish
4) Double gap at SPY 397 will be filled sooner or later

Cletus open: 1) 1 of 3 "double gaps" has now filled with at least 1 at 397 left to fill, there is also one down at the lows according to stockcharts 2) Holiday seasonality is normally bullish. That hasn't materialized but can at any moment. 3) Cycles point to an early morning rally at some...

A larger H&S bottom could materialize here still on this pattern. The alternative bullish scenario would be a double bottom that moves straight to the double bottom price target. Note: The market's pattern lately has to been to sell off ahead of Fed meetings and rally after, so perhaps no launch...

This visual shows all the recent "gap over gaps" where the market gapped over a previously unfilled gap. The very low one only is on stockcharts and doesn't appear on my charting platform as a gap over gap, and that might have to do with opex and ex-dividend or something, but I am not sure...

Cletus open:

1) gap down over a previous gap - again! Don’t expect that not to fill either so at least that upside is eventually guaranteed just as 397 on SPY is guaranteed
2) If bears can trend today I assume we go right to the lows at 3,650, maybe get a double bottom but that isn’t a sure thing

Cletus close notes - a little early but I've seen enough at this point: 1) Bulls did not really do much in terms of reversals. A re-test down to 3,650, although it's hard to believe with pessimism so high, appears to be approaching a higher odds scenario 2) Retail pessimism is through the roof so I ...

Cletus open notes: 1) H&S bottom pattern looks canceled because this pullback started much too early for that bull case. 2) Maybe a retest of the low to gap fill but still don't think any major leg down has started 3) Holiday seasonality is now the bull's best chance to rally back up to fill the...

Cletus close notes: 1) Buyable dip, no change in outlook. Last chance for bears to get out of their shorts before holiday squeeze starts 2) Unimpressive move lower to re-test the lows and do some gap filling. The open gap at 397 on SPY means any area here is buyable without fear of longer term losses.

Cletus open notes:

1) Unlikely bears find relief as we inch closer to the 4th of July holiday
2) Bias is up
3) Gap remains unfilled at 397 on SPY, so not thinking about any profit taking or short positions yet
4) The notion of a lower high here is, of course, absurd

Dip buying was correct

~Uncle Cletus

Cletus open notes: 1) Bullish cycles conclude roughly mid-week, but since there is the upcoming holiday and bullish seasonality, I would say at minimum next week is probably the first opportunity for a short (and we'll see what actually happens) 2) The SPX remains on the exact path as outlined for t...

Cletus close notes: 1) SPY is closing in on the double gap around 397. One way or another, that will fill. Things are certainly pointing in the direction of eventual continuation of the up move here today and further upside 2) The rally is expected to stop even under my bullish scenario around 4100 ...

Bonus Notes:

1) A bear market rally would typically terminate with the VIX falling below 20. Long ways to go for that.
2) Today did gap over a gap so it might not build into a trend day, but will probably still close up

Cletus open notes: 1) NQ has already broken past a key resistance so other indices might follow today or later next week 2) Market is very "gap happy" right now, gapping over gaps on a regular basis. This is good and bad news for bulls. The market is doing cleanup work on some upside gaps ...

tough close for a bear...should have listened to uncle cletus

Cletus close note:

1) More up, bears don't have any push power
2) Holiday effect of 4th of July is going to make it very hard for bears to get anyone to sell this market

bears have been unable to take control today, making is fairly unlikely they will break it lower - I would guess we're breaking higher today. Cycles on NQ also point to at least one more up cycle.

Cletus open notes: 1) decent gap up but didn’t clear yesterday’s range so an uptrend day is not guaranteed 2) bias is still up, unfilled double gap at 397 with another week or two of bullish moon cycles 3) bears have a big problem - 4th of July - one of the best performing of all the holidays, so go...