Cobra's Market View

Bullish moon cycles have started and last until roughly when the Fed meeting takes place. We also have October coming which is the start of the annual bullish seasonality that lasts until April or so. The markets collapsed days after The Snake said “this bull has legs”. Cletus said the opposite. Now...

The rebound was entirely predictable but the one issue for bulls is NYMO being so deeply oversold, the odds favor a positive divergence that has to form before we can really launch. That means in the coming week we will probably see a lower close on SPX. However, there are rare occasions when it is ...

A sharp correction was expected and predicted by Cletus, but I can admit to not expecting a straight line down with few pauses. In any case, we are reaching some oversold levels on the McClellan Oscillator, so a bounce could happen any time, but it is looking increasingly like this correction could ...

Cletus Open:

1) More up. 2 consecutive unfilled futures gap down on Sunday night will be filled - all of them
2) Buy the dip after major distribution day (friday) good for a 2-3 day bounce

more up, no pullback

(Straight talk!)

Surprise, surprise. Cletus was right

MORE UP. The Sunday night futures gap hasn’t filled. At least a counter trend rally can reach that.

I'm still calling for a rebound here. Sunday night futures gap fill remains unfilled. Doesn't matter how low they take it because I am 100% confident that gap fills, just a matter of waiting for it. That's called a "breadcrumb" and the big boys always leave a few behind to communicate wher...

A little oversold today. Expect a bounce. Moon cycles are still bullish until first couple days of Sept. Plus we have an unfilled gap now on the sundays future open that must be filled. Should be a bounce in the next week and selling is no longer viable.

Does the bull have legs or is just sick? Critically injured by Spanish matador

Bears aren’t done yet. Might get price recovery at some point but this correction will extend. No positive seasonality until October.

Cletus was right…again

An article worth reading to anyone who has "suddenly" become a market bull 15% off the lows (rather than at the lows): https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/httpsrealinvestmentadvicecomsp-3500-year-end-if-qt-continues For more detail on why QT is expected to accelerate, not decline: https://ww...

Bulls have a problem. Cletus is not bullish anymore. That is their problem.

Cobra: “This bull has legs”

Cletus: “This bull is about to have its legs cut off”

May the best analyst win

Market participants who were bearish at 3,650 are now bullish at 4,300. Those who were bullish at 3,650 are now turning bearish. Which side to choose?

Skeptic's Perspective On This Rally: 1) The slowdown in CPI is due to a recent crash in commodities. Natural gas has now rallied and is nearing new highs for the year again. Oil has taken a sharp leg up of late. Were these trends to continue, the CPI would likely rebound. Grains are barely off the l...

I’ve ridden up a number of investments since the lows and have taken profits on some. Part of my reasoning is more timing over taxes etc but I also believe the market is likely to pull back. Maybe not this week but soon. That ViX under 20 is the big red flag to me. Until proven wrong whenever the vi...

Cletus Open: 1) Vix is up this morning and < 20. This is a warning sign (if we assume bear market conditions are valid). 2) bonds are down signaling that the smart money doesn’t totally buy the CPI flattening as a sustainable condition 3) some possibility we have to revisit the lows before the end o...

The VIX has now fallen below 20. That was the area where the market might run into some headwinds. After the bullishness of today and probably into tomorrow, the market has a chance at pulling back. If the Vix can't stay below 20 for very long, the bear is still very much alive. If the Vix collapses...