Cobra's Market View

Q. How many days above the 200day sma has $xbd spent in the month of May?

A. None.

Considering that broker-dealers are often ahead of the curve, and a harbinger indicator, this is of grave concern to equity bulls.

te_fern wrote:Anyone else having to transition from TD Ameritrade to Schwab today. I guess I'll have to figure out a new screen setup and how things work!

The forced transition is hitting clients on a rolling basis. It hasn't gotten to my account yet.

Thx to AD for the sample Schwab chart.

Note the extreme underperformance of R2k and RSP today. Fear is greater there.

Intraday bears be cautious-- NYSE and Naz advancers both just pushed to a fresh HOD. IWM and SPY are both trying to break and hold above recent local highs. If they do it could be a quick rush up to longer term resistance.

BullBear52x wrote: ...we will soon see if Musk is the real deal.

Tesla stock is down 70% in a year. That has to weigh on him--or anyone--psychologically. And for someone with a big ego, it can blow up into a serious depression (or compensatory mania). I'd keep a close eye on him, if I were a shareholder.

Al_Dente wrote:"It's becoming increasingly clear Tesla is just another car company"

Just another? From a valuation standpoint it's still "3 car companies--GM + Ford + Toyota". (per Bloomberg, earlier today)

How absurd is that--even still?

There once was a superb tactician who posted on this Board, by the name of Dow Trader, who used to always remark "keep your eye on the dollar". And that was at a time when the 10-day intermarket correlations btw some measure of the Dollar Index (currency basket) and the risk asset universe...

UUP lod

brokebybernacke2 wrote:vix is RED, hello

VXN and RVX are down as well.

UUP is well off its daily high.

From Briefing.com.. "FedEx (FDX 150.04, -5.14, -3.3%) shows steep losses following reports that an internal memo indicated the ground division expects lowers volumes during holiday season. UPS (UPS 160.27, -5.32, -3.2%) trades down in sympathy. Avis Budget (CAR 179.45, +1.38, +0.8%) is the only...

Cobra wrote:Bear flag breakdown?

QQQ fresh lod. SPY, IWM not yet.

From R.Hanna (Quantifiable Edges).. Monday and Tuesday saw the best 2-day start (+5.73%) to any month since the inception of the modern $SPX in 1957. Using months that were up > 3% in first 2 day performance as the metric, to give a broader sample, looking at SPX performance going fwd the next three...

LQD at 103 is at a 4-year low. (Except for two weeks in March 2020.)

All capital gains in inv.grade corporate bonds over the last four years are gone.

UUP up full 1%. Amazing one day move for a currency, when nothing surprising took place.

Serenity wrote:It is Jeffery Hirsch who is writing his "Stock Trader's Almanac" and making predictions and money on his book.

It's a convenient way of remembering favorable and unfavorable seasonal periods.

Cobra wrote:Guess the market decided to go up.

Hm, perhaps not. Final half hour will determine.

SPY has definite LL, but QQQ and IWM either do not, or just barely..

ARKK went quickly from green to red. SPY is showing an early doji. Price is being held up by energy strength, off of Putin speech and rhetoric.

Update: Tech now strong, led by semis. Homebuilders very strong. FXI downside leader. Dollar again strong, as are junk bonds.

IWM gap fill. QQQ did not.

New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later. Keep an eye on the insurance ind...

Another excellent and timely quick-study from SentimenTrader.. On Tuesday every member of the Nasdaq 100 declined. In the past 25 years there were only 13 times this has occurred. Taking this as a buy signal for the NDX or QQQ, and holding for two weeks, the median gain upon sale would have been abo...