Cobra's Market View

Last 3 months are starting to look more like a broad head and shoulders pattern on Daily SPY if resolving as such it would only result in a ~ 10% drop as per ta rules, nothing really earth-shattering. A Trump election could extend the down move with more vehemence which would be a generational buyi...

Last 3 months are starting to look more like a broad head and shoulders pattern on Daily SPY

Daily SPY:

outside of a couple gyrations, SPY has been stuck in a trading range for about 3 months. This still appears to be a correction tho, and we're still in a very stubborn wave C down.

intraday SPY buy signal cancelled now....

I'm suspicious that SPY will rebound big. Intraday SPY is on a buy signal in fact in my system.

A big drop just isnt supposed to happen today or tomorrow. this is supposed to be window dressing. something big must be up.

The question in my mind is should i short the close on friday for a gap down monday? Usually the market does something to kill the idea but well see!

Probably not much movement today nor friday due to quarter end. Maybe downtrend resumes monday

Daily SPY:

Ok, looks like the answer was ew had to fill the gap by going back up at least SPY 216. Now we should continue to our wave C down target and future are down...

Ok so the plan is fill the gap to SPY 216 and THEN go back down and search for the end of wave C down.

My bearish brain says its a double top so short here and ride it down to SPY 212.
My bullish brain says lets fill the gap and go to 216.

I was actually happy to see the big rally after hours because I thought that would be a great short with an eye on some wave C bottom. Of course, it gave back all the gains before the open.

OK you know the drill usually the way the market corrects is in an ABC pattern. We obiously did A down and B up. B up terminated in a false buy signal on the MACD bullish cross. Now were doing C down. Look for C down to terminate in a big down day on a huge volume spike. That should be the place to ...

intraday SPY:

still adrift....

Intraday SPY:

Market opened with a sell signal. That got cancelled but there is no buy signal. We're adrift!

Daily SPY: I can confirm with the close that the MACD bullish cross is NOT valid and should not be bought. It was close but the buy signal got averted with today's action. A list of recent VALID MACD bullish crosses: 1. WIN July 1st, 2016: SPY goes from 208.60 to 215.60 2. LOSS January 28th, 2016: S...

Intraday SPY:

Today was crap.

intraday SPY:

Sell signal cancelled but no buy signal.

My intraday system is on a sell signal ATM... Maybe ill update that as we go along for today only.