Cobra's Market View

One thing I noticed about any large previous drawdown is that any pullback of actual size was always preceded by a divergence in a number of different market leaders: None of these market leaders are showing any sort of indication of weakness, at all. In fact, the outperformance of IWM to both SPY ...

strangest Fed day in awhile, the normal rules of thumb did not seem to apply today.....was it a pause before attempt at 4000 strike next few days?

thank you all for the input

day after President day used to most negative trading day in Feb.....

Maybe retailers pile in again and ES spike back to overnight highs haha

Al_Dente wrote:Put buying right out of the gate, easing now
Note how extreme the put buying was in the VXN (QQQ) options (black dash). That is also easing a bit.

216vix vxn.png.jpg

great chart, thanks

jan27 selloff.png possible cup and handle here, if above 3933 on 5 min? next few days watching this nonconfirmation in nyad and volume, could be similar to jan 27... [img]file:///C:/Users/Tim/Downloads/trade-2020/SFG/jan27%20selloff.png[/img] from this page https://stockcharts.com/public/1169350/te...

tim-follows wrote:with low open interest in puts, the immediate ES retrace up will be sharper and farther from dealing hedging with each pause to the downside in ES, be wary of selling new lows for that reason

just like this bar here!

seems less possible of maybe another leg down to 3913ish?

with low open interest in puts, the immediate ES retrace up will be sharper and farther from dealing hedging with each pause to the downside in ES, be wary of selling new lows for that reason

upvolume holding in, but broad participation is lagging, and that Pop ahead of fedtime did not solicit new buying it seems, feels still heavy

feels like a good day for trend day down, wait to see what Europe does and if there is no decent pop into FedTime.....huge ES call open interest at 3950 limits upside I believe, plus OI in puts below here is very low, down to 3920-ish in next 2 hours? or a grind up toward 3948 first?

Bullish percent index shows maybe material and energy sectors are a little too hot. Hmm, energy sector? Really? Why material sector is so hot? Inflation? regarding material sector, according to Bespoke recent "Pro vs Con" newsletter, housing starts not peaking, which always occurs prior t...

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also, tendency for spy to consolidate +/- 7 points around the 89 day ema for a week or two

re Daytrading, hahaha....first half of last week was low volume upticks overnight, then heavy selling near cash closing. Cobra 's SentimenTrader charts for Seasonality, http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/seasonality-by-month-and-day/ show a 70% probability of positive close on 2nd may trading day (butt...

Al_Dente wrote:Advance-Decline Percents and High-Low Percents
Daily

44percents.png

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Thank you.

FYI, Volume adv/dec for small caps made new lows for this downmove....seems like smalls have been leading in the downmove

Weekend indices traded unchanged to down 1.5%, now consolidating minus 1% before futures open Sunday night. Great article, scroll down to chart, similar patterns when markets end down January, AND also take out December lows.....we could be in an SPX range of 1800/2000 to 2800/3000 for many months. ...

. Extremely interesting interview video (from March 3, 2020) regarding the mechanics of the market sell-off: https://player.vimeo.com/video/396693602?start&end&wmode=opaque&loop=0&controls=1&mute=0&rel=0&modestbranding=0#t= . yes! Thanks QED, fascinating perspective on i...

So much for using cheap flights to grab a caraf of beaujelais on the Seine...Paris all cafe bar resturants closed :oops: Great video from Northman, Watch the end closely regarding election-year tendency. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/damage-not-theoretical-its-deep-global-pervasive Now, our toug...

might look a bit too political to intervene on a sunday night, waiting for first domino of corporate default perhaps

Futures look to open down 2% soon, weekend futures traded down 2.5 to down 1% all weekend, the trump - bump placating speech Saturday did seem to elicit 1% shortcovering on Saturday