Cobra's Market View

Just a reminder that if the market manages to finish up today the trading markets short setup will be triggered. It does not mean a trend reversal, but it usually works in my experience. I hope it triggers because Monday tends to be ugly as the coronavirus numbers from the weekend come in.

I'm worried today can turn into a very ugly day to force the politicians to get something done

I live in the UK now (actually self-isolating with my family at home having symptoms of covid-19 but can't test it). Watching the government approach of going open-eyed into a catastrophe was excruciating. I'm glad they did the U-turn, I'm just not sure they did it within time. I'm actually coming t...

Since the start of March the market always opens opposite to its final hour.

given the close, I wonder if another circuit break tomorrow morning.

on October 10th 2008 BPSPX reached its all-time low of 1.6. It is currently at 1.6. The magnitude this time is way bigger, dropping to this value from 12, while then it dropped from 3.6.

Cobra, or anyone else, do you know if there is any edges to market going down big but TRIN<1?

Haven't we been here before?
Monday is crucial. likely some pullback, if it closes below MA50 a backtest is very likely. If it manages to hold above than this time is different.

January opex is bad for bulls:
https://twitter.com/QuantEdges/status/1 ... 69824?s=20
A short profit factor of 3.4, with 75% chances of lower close.

Hi Cobra,
Do you have statistics for vix down 9-10 days in a row?
Forgive me if this was already asked.

I wanted to point you to this guy:
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/comm ... 110214.php
He has an excellent weekly summary, and his research argues for limited upside from here until the end of the year.

So you thought you can gain from the contango in vix buying an inverse vix etp? Well think again.the inverse vix success is the cause of their tragedy today, as the volatility of volatility increases.

I've got a short signal on XIV based on xiv and vix 5d correlation: xiv vix correlation 31 may 2014.png in the past 3 years there have been 6 instances (I count instances with a short period of time between them as a single instance) where the 5d correlation exceeded 0.3. all of them led to correcti...

the naaim survey showed extreme bearish sentiment this week which should support short term bounce in the market. most other indicators suggest the market has further to fall in the intermediate term. one important observation: a bounce from oversold NYMO conditions always reach at least the top BB ...

the XIV correlation to $vix indicates it's time to take profits soon: xiv vix correlation.png the way i use it: close longs when correlation crosses -0.75 to the upside, initiate short when it moves down below -0.5. if the market closes here we're exactly at the border. one can wait for the lower hi...

AAII survey shows bears fell 11.3 points to 23.8 and bulls surged a similar amount. in Investors intelligence survey bulls rose modestly but bears fell to 20.8. upside is limited from sentiment point of view.

I don't know if anyone showed this here before, but $vix and XIV correlation provided a nice exit point from the market since XIV's inception: I believe a moving average on the correlation will probably provide the best signal, but i don't have a stockcharts account.

a lot of people miss this last point regarding the relation between government deficit and public savings as drivers for profit margins. since deficits are going down, and savings are already very low, only revenue growth could drive profit growth. but where would that revenue come from in this envi...

Cobra, is it possible to post the Credit Suisse fear barometer?

the AAII survey had one of its wildest swings ever this week: bulls went from 35 to almost extinct 19 and bears went from 26 to skyrocketing 54. this result was not mirrored by the II survey which barely moved but can explain where did the fuel for the recent rise came from. on a longer time frame e...