Cobra's Market View

NYMO cycle remains down. We had a dip into the Turn Zone in late April, bounced to the zero line May 4 and are now back in the Turn Zone. Double dips like this are rare. Anecdotally, the rise out of the second dip turns into a full fledged NYMO up cycle. Think NYMO double bottom. So, bulls may have ...

Just a few quick BachNut comments: Bears managed to tag the lower keltner band yesterday at 4062.98 confirming a bear bias until further notice. That said, the lower band may have been a good buy spot for a reversion to some mean if a bounce is developing. The 200 MA is now resistance. There has bee...

Mr. B checking in. The NYMO cycle is DOWN. Yesterday, we closed in the lower Turn Zone. So, bears should be on watch for a low of some kind in the days ahead. NYMO is up today. So, perhaps the cycle low is in, but time could tell otherwise too. Price closed the last open down gap this morning. That ...

BachNut checking in after a nice respite. The NYMO cycle is down. It ticked up yesterday in spite of price ticking down providing a positive divergence that perhaps signaled today's action. Perhaps a low has been set for a new up cycle, or perhaps the market is just ready for a corrective bounce to ...

Mr. B is flat and not trading due to preoccupations with other matters. The chart is interesting at present. So, worth a post. NYMO cycle is up and in the upper Turn Zone. The upper turn zone doesn't offer an edge but signals one to be alert. Sometimes it marks a high into a reversal, but it can als...

Mr. B reporting in. Since we entered this High VIX war zone, I have left the NYMO model alone. It continues to coil around the zero line and thrusts offer no edge for initiation of a new trend. In fact they have been more representative of pushes to a support or resistance level leading to reversal....

It occurs to me that I never pointed out that this RSI divergence also seems applicable to the NASDAQ.
We almost got the tag last week. Unfinished business?...

A tag of the two year moving average, perhaps around SPX 4000, is looking more plausible than it used to.

The NYMO cycle is DOWN. We have a nasty saw tooth pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Pricewise, we have three gaps above and none below other than stranded gaps from last year. The 200MA, middle keltner band and a declining tops line are all converging around SPX 4450-4500. As we now have a fail...

The NYMO cycle is still coiling around the zero line. At the moment there is a pretty solid positive divergence with price making new lows for the month but not the NYMO. Someone is doing some buying out there. The behavior over the last few weeks has been unusual as well as erratic. Pricewise we ha...

NYMO is still coiling about the zero line. If I were dogmatic about the model, I would be flipping the cycle status every few days. :roll: The chart labeling is left as if we are in an up cycle until there is more clarity. NYMO is looking a bit perky this morning, but let's see how things close on t...

The NYMO cycle remains unclear. We continue to coil around the zero line. However, this morning we are making a lower low after making a higher high. So, a down cycle may have begun. Pricewise, we have two gaps above. None below. The nearest one missed closing on Thursday by half a point. Treacherou...

Al_Dente wrote:Inverse H&S on IWM
cyan target is 220
60m

Thanks Al. It's nice to have a target.

Taking a look at the VIX chart, there are down gaps at 19.96 and 19.19. Since shorting volatility became a thing, spikes above 20 have tended to to and fro their way back down to eventually make a low below 18. We are presently in one of those downward moves. Next week is OPEX and VIX futures expira...

Used to have to wait and wait until Friday for your post. Now you are posting more frequently. I LIKE THAT. THANKS MR. BACH :D Thank you Mr. D. As a long time Cobra fan, I try to visit once a week to see what you guys are up to and toss on a note. Ideally, NYMO has something to say or offers some e...

The NYMO cycle is unclear. :roll: It spiked into positive territory last week only to quickly fall back below zero. I am treating the action as if we are in an up cycle even though we have the last three closes below zero. The initial upthrust was very overbought having moved from deep in the turn z...

The NYMO cycle remains down though I think the cycle low is in. It popped above zero at the open this morning but has since slipped below. The surge over the last few days is either a corrective move to the zero line or the start of a new up cycle. Bulls need to get two closes above zero to confirm ...

It's probably not a good sign that the 200MA appears to have offered zero support.

While the index is making fresh lows on the day, the VIX is below its morning high.

I believe we have a divergence here...

Mr. BachNut wrote: There is also a big gap from the July low waiting to be filled at SPX 4258.49.

Gap closed.
Quite a day we are having.