Cobra's Market View

Cobra wrote:morning hourly hollow red. it should work this time now.

Market just loves those hollow reds these days and also GREEN Daily candles!

-D

Some fairly quick & dirty employment data analysis:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

-D

Cobra wrote:morning hourly hollow red. we have 2 unfulfilled hollow red already, it should be a record.

LOVE your stats!

Definitely an interesting one.... do they all eventually get filled or are their some from 2009 - 2013 still unfilled?

Thanks,

-D

Unless this is end of Q cosmetics to gain big bonuses...as far as everyone is bullish, I don't really believe that's the case. Look at our board here, most of the people are waiting to short or already short...who is long on this forum? Good observation - the Ticker Sense bears are up to 46%. Stock...

uempel wrote:2002 analogue:

20160.png

20020.png

Thanks for providing the reminders on the analog.

As just commented - Wednesday post opex was the BIG down days in March 2014 and March 2015.

-D

Just for awareness on today. There were March opex tops in 2014 (opex Friday) and 2015 (Monday post opex). In both years, there were decent pullbacks that ended on the last Thursday of March, which also happened to be the Thursday post opex. This year the last Thursday is not for another week. I wil...

Thanks for posting...

It is definitely one to remember.

-D

p.s. Tuesday post FOMC was also when we topped in November....

uempel wrote:Update on the 2002 analogue:

20022.png

20166.png

Another study as I had the time.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03 ... ay-update/

-D

1st touch of EMA20 in 2+ hours usually is buy. I'm in wait and see mode as again lots of people are shorting. Yes, I think everyone decided in Jan / Feb that this was the year to SHORT! and it did work for 6 weeks.... since then OUCH! The persistent bull has returned... or has it.... I remember thi...

Hourly sell signal in the midcaps.

Just posted the historical info here:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03 ... ay-update/

-D

Post the March Opex / FOMC preview earlier today...

Post FOMC is almost always the turn time.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03 ... bb-bottom/

-D

There is some potentially useful info in the comment I posted here about the end of Feb and early March.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... -breakout/

-D

Not now, but the Feb preview has some relevant bigger picture points.

My previews will be more occasional until we have a better sense of how this bear will trade.

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/

-D

Given the less than strong turning points edge for tomorrow's FOMC, the preview is just posted here: https://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points-2/denalis-turning-points-2016/ Bottom Line The market is challenging and has changed character. It is best to keep your risk under control and be f...

Cobra wrote:possible double bottom. if this still is the past mad cow then the low was in for today, let's see.

The past MAD COW? I think we can safely say that that one has been put to bed - which is not a bad thing --- just will take time for all of us to adjust....

-D

Keep in mind that the market is in a highly volatile state these days. We could swing from 188 to 195 in a day and that would be normal for what we are in. It could look awfully bearish for a couple hours and then furious buying comes in later. Could not agree more. The character of the market has ...

Happens quite a bit - 5th time since last January. Jan, April and December 15 bottomed on the day. August was obviously the Monday after.... September was the start of a move lower.

-D

superxy wrote:today is monthly OE，gap down so big，any previous OE day like this？


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Eddie wrote:If this is still a bull market, price should start impulsing higher soon.

Given the high was last May.... I sense it is no longer a bull..... maybe not a true bear yet, but certainly a market that is in transition.

-D

AMAZING Market! I made a post early in the am that might give some additional perspective here - read only when you have the time: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/01142016-market-outlook-bottomed/ The character of the market has definitely changed! I looked back at large UP Thursdays on the day...

NYDEC at Extreme just under 2700. Typically this is followed by market reversal. Except when I go long, Then all bets are off. :D :roll: amazing how that p bar that showed up yesterday at 189.17 was hit today. I saw it, noted it, but really did not expect it to get nailed! really extraordinary. -D