Cobra's Market View

Rambling BachNut today... The NYMO cycle has finally confirmed DOWN. The benchmark at the up cycle high is SPX 3905.42. The model gives good odds for trade to occur at or below the benchmark by the time the downcycle ends. However, from time to time, these benchmarks get stranded for a few cycles, b...

FYI The VIX just closed the last outstanding open down gap from August. The August and April VIX lows are close. So, one can wonder how much drop may be left in VIX. It remains well within a declining channel. I am inclined to believe that a break of the declining tops line will be a notable thing w...

The NYMO cycle remains UP, but the cycle high appears to be in. NYMO continues to make a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, but has also remained solidly positive. The model remains UP until we start getting negative NYMO closes. Price found resistance this morning at the declining tops line. Ti...

The NYMO cycle is UP, but the high may be in. We have been making a series of lower highs and lower lows, but until the oscillator goes negative, the model stays up as this action could be corrective rather than reversal. We have now hit the Upper Turn Zone twice and the response to each has been pr...

BachNut Bonus chart today. VIX is cycling down from the September high. We closed an open gap today, but there are two more below. The gaps below are in the neighborhood for historical VIX lows this year. With OPEX on deck for November, Vol sellers could give SPX bulls some energy to keep climbing. ...

Mr. BachNut with a late in the week report... The NYMO cycle is UP. We are back in the Upper Turn Zone (UTZ). As you may recall, NYMO in the UTZ is a possible pivot time when things can change... or not. Watch for confirmation of blast off or a switch to consolidation or reversal over the next few d...

The NYMO cycle is UP. However, last Friday's NYMO high looks like it could be the high for this cycle. Time will tell. As the model benchmarks price high/lows to NYMO high/lows, higher price highs from here could accrue potential downside energy if they are not accompanied by higher NYMO highs. We s...

The NYMO cycle is UP. As I write, we are flirting with the Upper Turn Zone. Visits to the Upper Turn Zone signal to be on watch for a change in character. Sometimes things keep surging, but around here is where you can see a consolidation or a turn occur. So... Upper Turn Zone can be helpful for tim...

Not much to say today. The NYMO cycle is UP. NYMO has been making a nice series of higher highs and higher lows. Price has cleared all nearby open gaps leaving just one below and a collection pretty stranded above. The NYMO visit to the Oversold Zone in September offered an edge for price to travel ...

Shorter than usual post today. Short on time. NYMO cycle is down, but there is a huge positive divergence. We hit the lower Turn Zone at the open after CPI and now approaching the zero line. :shock: We only have one nearby open gap up at SPX 3744.52. We have edge to take a trip to the middle keltner...

Well, the NYMO cycle appears to be UP, but we are still lacking two positive closes to confirm. We are below the zero line intra-day. The 9/12 NYMO high was an oversold squeeze that faded. It is conceivable that yesterday's high was too. The 9/26 low was extreme and near impossible to beat. So, by d...

The NYMO cycle remains DOWN. At 27 days, this is a very long cycle. We have returned to the Oversold Zone for a second time and have made lower NYMO lows eliminating what had been a positive divergence. To have two Oversold Zone hits in such a short time indicates serious dumpage going on. Multiple ...

Just a quick update... NYMO hitting the lower Turn Zone this morning. Also, we have big positive divergence with price making lower lows but NYMO well above prior low. Perhaps a tradeable low develops in the days ahead. Price has broken the rising bottoms line. Bad. There is a down gap or two not fa...

The NYMO cycle is technically still DOWN. We got a sharp rally from the Oversold Zone but only one positive close. The model calls for two closes to declare a cycle change. That said, NYMO is holding up pretty well after yesterday's bloodbath. A rally from here could readily confirm an up cycle or w...

I know a trader who is profitable with a 35% win rate. Most of what he says doesn't pan out. What matters is how much you make when you are right against how much you lose when you are wrong. In the spirit of full disclosure, my overall win rate across all my trading is 53%. Basically a coin toss. ...

Cletus is why i dont post here anymore. 8-) I value all the posts here, only the one said I told you so....when wrong, the poster gone missing only to get back with the same message I told you so. I learned so much from this board, what I post here right or wrong it is my way to give back and keep ...

Needing to be right is an ego thing. Comparing mind can get in the way of good trading. I know a trader who is profitable with a 35% win rate. Most of what he says doesn't pan out. What matters is how much you make when you are right against how much you lose when you are wrong. Sharing ideas and vi...

BachNut Bonus Chart... We have been in a VIX up cycle for 18 trading days. Typically, VIX finishes a climb in 20 days or less. Mr. Market can do what he wants though. There's no reason this can't run longer. We have spent most of the last eight days between 25.3 and 27.7. At the moment, we are at th...

Mr. B with not much new to report. NYMO cycle is DOWN but has posted a low in the Oversold Zone. So, the cycle low may be in but NYMO has to get positive to confirm an up cycle. Trade in the oversold zone offers an edge for a trip to the middle keltner band at some point. We have made lower lows sin...

Mr. B is still on vacation and flat, but we have some interesting NYMO news this morning. We are well into a down cycle, and for the first time in a long time, NYMO has tanked into the "Oversold Zone." A close somewhere in this neighborhood puts edge (not a guaranty) for a trip to the midd...