Cobra's Market View

New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later. Keep an eye on the insurance ind...

Another excellent and timely quick-study from SentimenTrader.. On Tuesday every member of the Nasdaq 100 declined. In the past 25 years there were only 13 times this has occurred. Taking this as a buy signal for the NDX or QQQ, and holding for two weeks, the median gain upon sale would have been abo...

Another excellent and timely quick-study from SentimenTrader.. On Tuesday every member of the Nasdaq 100 declined. In the past 25 years there were only 13 times this has occurred. Taking this as a buy signal for the NDX or QQQ, and holding for two weeks, the median gain upon sale would have been abo...

marcueus2 wrote:ECB rate hike by 75 bp, will be interesting today.

Surprisingly, Dollar (UUP) is actually higher by about 2/3 of 1% in the pre-market.
Perhaps a classic case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" regarding Euro strength on the back of the rate hike. The adjustment decline happened yesterday.

From R.Hanna:

"Selling in the days leading up to FED days has often been met with relief rallies on the day. Confidence heading in has often disappointed." He often updates his classic studies on this, on his site.

https://quantifiableedges.com

Daniel wrote:$XBD lod, $VXN hod. This is bearish for the rest of the day unless it reverses.

XBD now off its lod, but VXN is still pressing its high.

From Briefing.com "The July Consumer Confidence reading was 95.7 (Briefing.com 96.4) versus the prior revised reading of 98.4 (from 98.7) and the June New Home Sales totaled 590,00 (Briefing.com 670,000) versus the prior revised total of 642,000 (from 696,000)." Since this econo-weakness w...

$XBD lod, $VXN hod. This is bearish for the rest of the day unless it reverses.

1. More up on the indices 2. Crude is running with room to run higher At the OR-15 the indices are weaker, with QQQ leading to the downside. SPY and IWM are also at the low of the 15-min range. Perhaps a good spot for a low-risk long, expecting a rangebound day today. XLE is again the rs leader. Fi...

JFR: "SPY 5 minutes. Price action. The bulls take the day." Indeed. But a word of caution: "The historical stats this week are strongly bullish on Wednesday (81%) and Thursday (71%) this week. The next bearish leaning day is opex on Friday at 38% green closes." -Stock Trader’s Al...

The VIX is currently holding just below a confluence of its 50day sma and its 20day sma. Since I posted that, SPX has moved to near its lod, but the VIX is almost exactly where it was. This is a "no-fear" pullback, despite the magnitude of the actual pullback of the NDX and QQQ from the s...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-of-the-five-fingers-of-death-are-squeezing-world-output-economist-warns Do you like scary movies? How about scary headlines? Ha ha That image is a treasure, JFR. Yet another sentiment-sign of a possible significant bottom here--along with the other recent wash...

JNK fresh lod
..but still a daily inside bar. And still within that controlling wide-range bar of June 15.

Credit spreads are what bond market traders always keep their eyes on.

Watch fear, resistance at mid BB now it's time to pay attention to VIX and VVIX. The VIX is currently holding just below a confluence of its 50day sma and its 20day sma. At the same time, QQQ, SPY, and IWM are performing their respective native dances around their (strongly downslope) 20day sma. No...

XLE is sitting just above the 200day sma/40week sma, which is now in the $66 range. The lower bollyband, on a weekly chart, would be about $3 below that. The weekly low on XLE was 69.50, and a level of former resistance and now support from February is around 68. If this recent decline continues, an...

MSFT hod. XHB hod. A relatively unchanged spx day has been rare lately, and such days are good for studying sector diffusion.

Strong today: XLK, KRE, IYR, XHB, FXI

Very weak: XOP, XLE,XLU, EWZ

also.. AAPL now also hod

Also, tech-heavy indexes have little energy in them, so very recent energy weakness isn't weighing them down.

arzaccess wrote:Noticed that NYFANG and ARKK did not make new lows.

ARKK has shown intriguing relative strength for several weeks now. I'm keeping it on my watchlist.

The SNB 50 basis point hike was a big shocker. That's what drove the bond and equity futures into abject panic overnite yesterday. The Swiss National Bank NEVER panics. The expectation was for no hike, rates unchanged. Yet they gurgitated up a 50 bipper. This signalled in 16pt font: Now IS the time ...

jaguar6992 wrote:I believe SPY goes ex today.

Yes.