06/24/2011 Intraday Watering

[thanos]

newbie alert!!! Hi Everyone...great board! Check out my pics at http://www....... LOL!! just kidding.

Look at the weekly chart http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p ... 8270502566 Morning star forming. Could be bullish if next week confirms with an up week!

[99er]

SPX
Okay.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_5318.html
Wider channel it is.

Have a great one folks!

[uempel]

Last update for today, I'll be back for the close:

[Anaconda]

SPX
Okay.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/06/spx_5318.html
Wider channel it is.

Have a great one folks!

You too!

FYI - shooting star voided unless we end day at near lows.

[uempel]

newbie alert!!! Hi Everyone...great board! Check out my pics at http://www....... LOL!! just kidding.

Look at the weekly chart http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p ... 8270502566 Morning star forming. Could be bullish if next week confirms with an up week!

"Thanos, a derivation of Thanatos, the personification of death and mortality in Greek mythology" - I hope you're not bringing the debt crisis to this blog

[HK88]

The problem with the bearish outlook is that it needs a trigger. It implies some kind of event, either with Greek debt or someting completely differrent, an unexpected incident. If this does not occur the market might keep on muddling through at this level, as the corporate results ain't that bad (yet) and the dollar is weak (and internationally operating companies are making tons of money).[/quote]

Interesting that you would say this, given the rich history of market moves which were not precipitated by any events whatsoever (even though pundits always come up with their reasons afterwards). Just for kicks, you should look into the study of socionomics. Whatever your view of Prechter, et al, the research they've done is quite fascinating on the subject of event-driven market moves. vs mood driven ones.
Cheers,
A[/quote]

I tend to agree with Umpel. I guess what he is trying to say is that big guys will try to hold the market here (if they cannot move it higher at least) as long as they can justify it. After all, their bonuses depend on it. In the absence of more negative economic data or a contagion in Europe or missed earnings, what is the rationale to take the market down, everything is almost priced in. On the other hand, July is on the horizon, which has bullish seasonality.

[agnosia]

I see a huge bear flag in the forming.

yep, good call cobra... wow, glad i took these last couple of weeks off. what a clusterf*%%$ !

bear flag target is 1294 - ((1346-1254)*.5) = 1248

[Anaconda]

The problem with the bearish outlook is that it needs a trigger. It implies some kind of event, either with Greek debt or someting completely differrent, an unexpected incident. If this does not occur the market might keep on muddling through at this level, as the corporate results ain't that bad (yet) and the dollar is weak (and internationally operating companies are making tons of money).

Interesting that you would say this, given the rich history of market moves which were not precipitated by any events whatsoever (even though pundits always come up with their reasons afterwards). Just for kicks, you should look into the study of socionomics. Whatever your view of Prechter, et al, the research they've done is quite fascinating on the subject of event-driven market moves. vs mood driven ones.
Cheers,
A[/quote]

I tend to agree with Umpel. I guess what he is trying to say is that big guys will try to hold the market here (if they cannot move it higher at least) as long as they can justify it. After all, their bonuses depend on it. In the absence of more negative economic data or a contagion in Europe or missed earnings, what is the rationale to take the market down, everything is almost priced in. On the other hand, July is on the horizon, which has bullish seasonality.[/quote]

I understand your point and you are, of course, free to go with your feelings. The historical evidence (regarding socionomics) suggests events are not necessary to precipitate a market move - that's all I'm saying. However, for the record, I have yet to see a 5th wave down since the May 2 high. We have 4 clear waves so far. Therefore, whether we get it on Monday, or later in the week, I think we see new lows very soon.
A.

[Cobra]

OK, i believe I've scored again. this 3rd leg is very critical, whether we'll have the end day rally will depends on how strong this is. For now I believe we'll have an end day rally.

[StrikePrice]

One post, one chart from me today.

The next 2hrs is likely more boring than the last two. The power players had lunch and went to the Hamptons.

The path down looks way easier than the path up. If the market can take the path of least resistance I's expect at least another test of the lows or lower as many here are looking for.

The flip side of course is that the Bulls have gapped up when faced with all kinds of resistance. We've had so many gap opens in the last 2 weeks it's like this morning opening was a real rarity nowadays. I guess I'll say I'm leaning Bullish because I see a gap up more likely than a gap down.

Have a great weekend everyone!

[uempel]

Hi Cobra,

on the daily chart for SPY, does it like ascending triangle (from 6/7 till now)? so more down side? thank you

I see a huge bear flag in the forming.

The problem with the bearish outlook is that it needs a trigger. It implies some kind of event, either with Greek debt or someting completely differrent, an unexpected incident. If this does not occur the market might keep on muddling through at this level, as the corporate results ain't that bad (yet) and the dollar is weak (and internationally operating companies are making tons of money).

Interesting that you would say this, given the rich history of market moves which were not precipitated by any events whatsoever (even though pundits always come up with their reasons afterwards). Just for kicks, you should look into the study of socionomics. Whatever your view of Prechter, et al, the research they've done is quite fascinating on the subject of event-driven market moves. vs mood driven ones.
Cheers,
A

Well, there are better books about behavioural finance than those by Prechter. Prechter is a great salesman, he reminds me of the Tea Party or of Karl Marx: a very ideological outlook which has a 38.2% rapport with reality...

[Cobra]

hmm, good, someone has already informed us where the rebound target is. not necessarily today though...

[Cobra]

remember if this is the last push down, it doesn't have to be a lower low, so again, critical here.

[jamesmith]

Hi Cobra,

on the daily chart for SPY, does it like ascending triangle (from 6/7 till now)? so more down side? thank you

I see a huge bear flag in the forming.

The problem with the bearish outlook is that it needs a trigger. It implies some kind of event, either with Greek debt or someting completely differrent, an unexpected incident. If this does not occur the market might keep on muddling through at this level, as the corporate results ain't that bad (yet) and the dollar is weak (and internationally operating companies are making tons of money).

Interesting that you would say this, given the rich history of market moves which were not precipitated by any events whatsoever (even though pundits always come up with their reasons afterwards). Just for kicks, you should look into the study of socionomics. Whatever your view of Prechter, et al, the research they've done is quite fascinating on the subject of event-driven market moves. vs mood driven ones.
Cheers,
A

Well, there are better books about behavioural finance than those by Prechter. Prechter is a great salesman, he reminds me of the Tea Party or of Karl Marx: a very ideological outlook which has a 38.2% rapport with reality... :lol:

can you recommend a good book on behavioral finance? Thank you. :)

[BBFinance]

The problem with the bearish outlook is that it needs a trigger. It implies some kind of event, either with Greek debt or someting completely differrent, an unexpected incident. If this does not occur the market might keep on muddling through at this level, as the corporate results ain't that bad (yet) and the dollar is weak (and internationally operating companies are making tons of money).

Interesting that you would say this, given the rich history of market moves which were not precipitated by any events whatsoever (even though pundits always come up with their reasons afterwards). Just for kicks, you should look into the study of socionomics. Whatever your view of Prechter, et al, the research they've done is quite fascinating on the subject of event-driven market moves. vs mood driven ones.
Cheers,
A[/quote]

I tend to agree with Umpel. I guess what he is trying to say is that big guys will try to hold the market here (if they cannot move it higher at least) as long as they can justify it. After all, their bonuses depend on it. In the absence of more negative economic data or a contagion in Europe or missed earnings, what is the rationale to take the market down, everything is almost priced in. On the other hand, July is on the horizon, which has bullish seasonality.[/quote]

bear markets do not start on bad news. More often than not, bear market sell off starts on good news and good sentiment.

[Cobra]

if we see H1 on the current bar, that'd be very tricky, i have no idea it should be long or not, my instincts tell me, yes, but I won't trust a snake.

[agnosia]

inverted h&s on the dollar (dx) hourly chart.... will bring us up over 77 resistance.. which means market is going DOWN.

[99er]

Got USD?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XFmYfDILVoQ/T ... dollar.JPG

h/t Jesse's Cafe American

[Couldn't resist.]

[Cobra]

H1 indeed, let's see how snake instinct works...

[soku]

damn this is so boring. i draw a box of 1265-1268 before lunch. now we r still there?
on daily chart it is a line!