newbie_77 wrote:
strikeprice,
it may seem that 118 might be too low for a max pain @ least for the monthly. i am sure there were lot of put buying in last 2 weeks in the lower range so MM will try to jerk it up to about 123-125 @ least. to invalidate all payouts in the lower range.
Not a Max Pain number. Current Pain number. Not sure the difference though.
nothing to say, as I said doesn't feel bearish but tomorrow must be up otherwise it only proves that this is just a rebound.
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Mr. BachNut wrote:FYI. VIX option expiration is tomorrow. There are a lot of in the money calls at 30 and 27.5 strikes relative to puts. Market makers, if their their books are on the short side, may take a crack at pushing some of that out of the money late in the day/open tomorrow...like picking a ripe fruit. Just a possibility to be aware of...can't be sure.
BachNut,
Newbie here. Does that mean big money will try to keep the VIX below 27.5 (low) resulting in a green/bullish tomorrow?
Thanks for posting. I'm not exactly sure where to get the calls/puts/strike info either.
This is similar to looking at the Max Pain (the price where the maximum number of puts and calls expire worthless) for a big etf like SPY near an option expiration day. It has a gravity in that it maximises the premium kept by the option writers and minimizes the exercises to be dealt with. So, as expiration day approaches, it is not uncommon to observe a push toward this level. It is one variable in the mix.
It looks irrelevant now in light of the post Merkel/Sarkozy trading.
I get my data off of my trading software, which shows open interest numbers for options.
One more thing debossman, the VIX options settle at the open tomorrow not the close. It looks like 32.5 strike is the battleground at the moment.
well, guess that's it for today. tomorrow must be up otherwise it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound. Thank you guys, I'll see you tomorrow.
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DAMN, i need somebody come to my office and slap me in face. yesterday, my boss' secretary ordered lunch for me. when she came to my office, she saw my charts on SODA. and she asked me how to trade it. i told her to buy 47.5p, then i totally forgot it. today i am busy with some monthly transactions. right before close, she called me and ask what to do with those puts. DAMN it.
KENA, where r u. i need something to bite
The goal is not uniformity. It is understanding and idea exchange.
Cobra, when you say " it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound" ... BUT THis is what you have been saying all along , that the any rebound is sell... ? you are expecting another leg down .... to retest the lows no ?
It’s a Technical Mess All Over the World: Yamada
Yamada says "all of them have come into long-term sell signals" with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Jakarta, and a few U.S. markets. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout ... 07964.html
grachu wrote:Cobra, when you say " it only proves that so far we had was just a rebound" ... BUT THis is what you have been saying all along , that the any rebound is sell... ? you are expecting another leg down .... to retest the lows no ?
Yes, I expect another leg down but I keep looking for evidences supporting more on the upside so as to make sure my call stay on the right side. I mean we have to change according to the market, trade what we see not we believe.
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