05/20/2017 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institution buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation this week. I prefer to see distribution going up more the next week otherwise we could just be in a range.

[Cobra]

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll here: viewtopic.php?f=9&t=2472

[Cobra]

No stock picks for the next week. Here's the strong stocks count:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=2474

[Al_Dente]

BofA notes the risk of “tech mania”
Tech flows as a % of AUM (assets under management)

And Hedge Funds aren't even bothering to turnover:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAN8vyNWAAAdKT4.jpg

[Al_Dente]

Jean-Michel Basquiat painted this in 1982 and sold it to a private collector for $19,000.00, and it has remained in a private collection since 1984.
It sold at Sotheby’s Thursday night for a record-breaking $110.5 million, the highest sum ever paid at auction for a U.S.-produced artwork.
(Note that this occurred in an art market that was reportedly going soft, but not according to symbol: BID).
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/ ... a-u-s-arti

[Al_Dente]

“The market is underpricing tail risk today."
[Sandy Rattray, the guy who co-invented the VIX index, in a conversation with GS, Thursday].

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM weekly
The last time the classic “Stock/Bond Ratio” was this high, indicating that stocks were overvalued compared to Treasurys, was late 2007

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM HISTORY, weekly:
What did the banks know and when did they know it?
When the SPX topped out in October 2007, it is worth noting that the banks had already topped out months earlier (roughly: $BKX and KRE topped in Feb, XLF topped in May).
There was one little divergence in 2011 which preceded a little drop in SPX, and then SPX kept powering higher (due to QE). And note that it took a long time for banks to “catch up”.
Now there’s another divergence in the banking sector, and banks have a choice: drag the SPX down a notch, or catch up.
Percentages, weekly:

[Al_Dente]

For the bulls:
Friday the TRIN “…fell to 0.544, suggesting bulls exhibited near panic-like behavior.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock- ... =rss&rss=1

[fehro]

LONG TERM weekly
The last time the classic “Stock/Bond Ratio” was this high, indicating that stocks were overvalued compared to Treasurys, was late 2007

The attachment 521stock bond ratio.png.png is no longer available

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

IRX 13- week Treasury still near multi year highs,

[QED]

LONG TERM HISTORY, weekly:
What did the banks know and when did they know it?
When the SPX topped out in October 2007, it is worth noting that the banks had already topped out months earlier (roughly: $BKX and KRE topped in Feb, XLF topped in May).
There was one little divergence in 2011 which preceded a little drop in SPX, and then SPX kept powering higher (due to QE). And note that it took a long time for banks to “catch up”.
Now there’s another divergence in the banking sector, and banks have a choice: drag the SPX down a notch, or catch up.
Percentages, weekly:

521banks.png.png

.
In 2007, $TNX (lower panel) also had negative divergence with the $SPX and had a positive correlation with the banking sector ... as it does in 2017.

.