Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com |
There're some chances the low was revisited overnight by futures (you can see beautiful double bottom on ES), so now only 51% chances of revisiting the low.Trades with cats wrote:As Cobra has reminded us many times the new low is revisited
Late July 2011
13% drop, 4 false breakouts, then lower low 1st week October
then recovery to new highs
Early May, 2012
8.71% drop , recover a third, lower low, recovered 5%
then higher low early June and on up from there
Mid Aug 2015
11.27% drop, 6% recovery, higher low, higher bounce
drop to between two previous lows, 10.2 % recovery by mid-October
14.3% drop early December, 7% recovery mid-January
double bottom late January then off to new highs
More infrequently the following happens-
A quick drop to correction territory (10 to 20%)
a solid bounce back, then a drop to new lows within 7 days
Followed by a sickening drop into a new bear market
price change is % of high
25-Aug-87
Days 18 10 7 4
Price Change -7.79 5.65 -5.7 -28.51
16-Sep-29
Days 14 4 7 22
Price Change -10.08 7.5 -7.6 -42
26-Jan-18
Days 9 22 7
Price Change -10.16 7.96 NA
Paraphrased from
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/com ... o-be-alert
Personally, I find this sort of thing interesting reading. But two data points is
pretty skinny and we would need a solid 7.4% decline in three days. So it
isn't realistic unless the bus crashes off the bridge.