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04/21/2018 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 2 weeks in a row means 78% chances higher high ahead the next week.
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victorm
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by victorm »

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that's how TMS looked at the end of the year, pointing to a some kind of crisis coming as previous lows in history shows almost 100% recession...
that's how TMS looked at the end of the year, pointing to a some kind of crisis coming as previous lows in history shows almost 100% recession...
victorm
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by victorm »

and that is how it looks like after couple month, money coming into the US from overseas due to favorable tax changes approved near the end of last year.
... and that's mean inflation and big inflation. Gold, commodities, stocks should rally I guess at least to half 2019th
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

orca.png.png
“Mobius says there’s a 30% correction coming for U.S. stocks”
“…the market is waiting for a trigger to tumble …”
“Mobius, who predicted the start of the bull market in 2009, has concerns that any fall would be amplified by the increasing use of exchange traded funds, which account for nearly one-half of all trading in U.S. stocks. His fear is ETFs would trigger further drops once markets fall.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mark- ... =rss&rss=1
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Summary of zh/wsj report on subprime lending:
“…there is no logical reason why in a economy as strong as this one [with 4% unemployment], subprime delinquencies should be soaring.”
These days, with big banks allegedly shunning subprime, only the small shady “non-banks” are specializing in subprime, BUT THEY BORROW FROM THE BIG BANKS, then lend out high-interest to their subprime borrowers. In this way, the big banks have been masking their massive subprime exposure.
No problem, until the slim shadys start going bankrupt or shutting down. Three already have, leaving big banks on the hook for “hundreds of billions…”
According to FDIC reports, bank loans to nonbanks lenders have soared, and here are the top contenders:
Wells Fargo: $81 billion, up from $13.4 billion in 2010
Citigroup: $30 billion, up from $4.1 billion in 2010
Bank of America: $30 billion, up from $2.8 billion in 2010
JP Morgan: $28 billion, up from $10.4 billion in 2010
Goldman Sachs: $22 billion
Morgan Stanley: $16 billion

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... to+zero%29
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
victorm
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by victorm »

Al_Dente wrote:
orca.png.png
“Mobius says there’s a 30% correction coming for U.S. stocks”
“…the market is waiting for a trigger to tumble …”
“Mobius, who predicted the start of the bull market in 2009, has concerns that any fall would be amplified by the increasing use of exchange traded funds, which account for nearly one-half of all trading in U.S. stocks. His fear is ETFs would trigger further drops once markets fall.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mark- ... =rss&rss=1
Mobius is wrong this time...
Banks are doing well, up and up we go...
How come, most corp reports shows all is good but so many analysts saying market should tumble?
Market love to confuse many and send people into wrong direction...
Clueless
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Clueless »

victorm wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
orca.png.png
“Mobius says there’s a 30% correction coming for U.S. stocks”
“…the market is waiting for a trigger to tumble …”
“Mobius, who predicted the start of the bull market in 2009, has concerns that any fall would be amplified by the increasing use of exchange traded funds, which account for nearly one-half of all trading in U.S. stocks. His fear is ETFs would trigger further drops once markets fall.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mark- ... =rss&rss=1
Mobius is wrong this time...
Banks are doing well, up and up we go...
How come, most corp reports shows all is good but so many analysts saying market should tumble?
Market love to confuse many and send people into wrong direction...

victorm, you just proved that Mobius is correct when he says a "30% correction" is coming.
Do you remember how the economy, banks and corporations were doing in 2009 when the market bottomed? If you can answer that question it means Mobius is correct. You just painted a nice picture in agreement with his forecast.

At the top of bull markets there is complacency because folks start thinking nothing can go wrong. The economy is strong with low unemployment and corporations are doing well. That is when trouble comes.
On the other hand, at the bottom of bear markets, nothing can go right. The economy is horrible, unemployment is high and corporations are doing bad.
Which do you think is happening at the moment?
victorm
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by victorm »

Clueless wrote:
victorm wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:
orca.png.png
“Mobius says there’s a 30% correction coming for U.S. stocks”
“…the market is waiting for a trigger to tumble …”
“Mobius, who predicted the start of the bull market in 2009, has concerns that any fall would be amplified by the increasing use of exchange traded funds, which account for nearly one-half of all trading in U.S. stocks. His fear is ETFs would trigger further drops once markets fall.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mark- ... =rss&rss=1
Mobius is wrong this time...
Banks are doing well, up and up we go...
How come, most corp reports shows all is good but so many analysts saying market should tumble?
Market love to confuse many and send people into wrong direction...
victorm, you just proved that Mobius is correct when he says a "30% correction" is coming.
Do you remember how the economy, banks and corporations were doing in 2009 when the market bottomed? If you can answer that question it means Mobius is correct. You just painted a nice picture in agreement with his forecast.

At the top of bull markets there is complacency because folks start thinking nothing can go wrong. The economy is strong with low unemployment and corporations are doing well. That is when trouble comes.
On the other hand, at the bottom of bear markets, nothing can go right. The economy is horrible, unemployment is high and corporations are doing bad.
Which do you think is happening at the moment?
Market swallows any negativity the very next day and move on like nothing happened. That's not a behaviour prior "plange" (though, it depends how dip one consider a plange)
Market was squeezing but release is about to start. Until everyone at work, shopping, Tim Hortons start talking how they make money on stocks - we will not see any significant negative moves.
Load your truck, especially with gold and marijuana. I try first time a weeded candy, man, I felt so good and strange..., this things are going to be big when legalization come in June/July. I'm loaded. Look at this hidden monster under cucumber and tomatoes, http://villagefarms.com/wp-content/uplo ... -22-18.pdf
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Re: 04/21/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Trades with cats »

Bob Farrell's 10 rules. If you are not familar, these have been around for a long time and are universally quoted.
Interesting how many apply to today's situation. ;)

1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction
3. There are no new eras — excesses are never permanent
4. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names
8. Bear markets have three stages — sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree — something else is going to happen
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
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