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My trading chart view of the overnight action. Once again the European time zone crowd had a really great opportunity part way through their day. The way the market has been I wonder if they will stick around or just start their weekend early.
On eight of the last ten days, IWM has touched or pierced its upper daily bolinger band…
That’s unusual.
Today, intraday, it is at a potential double top.
If you peek under the IWM kimono, you will see that small-healthcare stocks, PSCH, have been the biggest contributor to this smalls rally (PSCH is up +26% YTD compared to IWM up +6.28% YTD).
(In other words: If it weren’t for trump’s recent gift to the medical/pharma cartel, IWM would be in trouble).
Trivia: healthcare is about 16% of IWM
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Pasta Boss, now that is enlightening. The media has been trying to herd retail investors into IWM claiming it is all about the rotation out of large caps because of the dollar. That hasn't set well with me especially given how very very small the small cap trading volume is compared to the large cap indexes.
Are we going to test that 9 am (Eastern) low? Or are they just bear baiting before the big push up? Lots of fresh shorts out there to squeeze I am guessing.
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Trades with cats wrote:Pasta Boss, now that is enlightening. The media has been trying to herd retail investors into IWM claiming it is all about the rotation out of large caps because of the dollar. That hasn't set well with me especially given how very very small the small cap trading volume is compared to the large cap indexes.
At this point everyone has gotten the memo about the outperformance of the smalls, so it’s now all about followers piling in.
FWIW:
YTD percent
All smalls plus IWM (cyan) and SPY (purple) for comparison
Small health is in ORANGE way up there
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
So on twitter today a different way to play the dollar. From someone I am unfamiliar with Eric Balchunas
"More evidence of calm before EM ETF bloodbath is traders (EEM) are bailing now, and allocators (IEMG) while not yet leaving haven't added inflows at all for 20+ days straight.."
This makes some sense to me because for several years the ' be a smart guy' types in the media have been pushing Ma and Pa Kettle to put their 401K in emerging market debt funds. Of course they never relate what happens when a recession kills your economy and a dollar rally delivers the coup de gras. Brazil seems to be a good current example.
Regarding the smalls outperformance
If you glance at the last ten days PERCENTAGEwise
U can c exactly how much the rest of the gang has to catch up……. not too bad really ............ still some higher lows there.....
(smalls are cyan, and all health, XLV, is orange)
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Bounce stumbling on yesterdays close. All those foreign time zone traders must have closed their shorts before the New York open. Oh well good luck finding fresh longs on a Friday in May.
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