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05/24/2018 Market Recap

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Cobra
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05/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

Bigger ascending triangle (dashed blue line) so still up is a little more likely than down. But if tomorrow morning down again, it'd be 3rd time charm, I wouldn't expect the morning down to be bought again.
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Cobra
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Re: 05/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

The trading log below is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense. I speak loud about what I think how the market would go in the next dozen of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible. Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's part of the game. If I always have a good day, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world, so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.


Overall, I was right on the breakdown then sharp reversal up and right for waiting for ema20 test but my mind still was on the downside even I said broke through of ema20 would mean bears were over so I missed the long trade today.


The open looked like a range day, so no plan to trade today (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254674#p254674).

I wasn't prepared for the sharp down. By here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254694#p254694), even I realized I might be able to short (I actually didn't even think about a short), it's already too late because it's near the yesterday's low now which should be a potential support . Additional info: The chart below shows the best short setup of the day, at which time I had no intention to trade at all. It's not a mistake FOR ME (arguable for others maybe, I'll remember to check again later). I'll keep the reason for now, I believe some traders have similar rules as of mine here.
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2.png (24.8 KiB) Viewed 1264 times
Breakdown usually leads to sharp reversal (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254704#p254704) and indeed (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254706#p254706).

So the next point to watch is whether the ema20 could stop the rebound (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254708#p254708).

Ironically, by here, I forgot my comments earlier: If broke through ema20 then bears were over. Instead, my focus was on 3 push up which sometimes works sometimes don't (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254725#p254725).

Since my mind was on 3 push up therefore preoccupied by a pullback so by here it's too late to long (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254735#p254735). The comment actually meant I had no guts to long now although I did believe the bias was up. I should be more honest the next time.

I knew the pullback would be bought (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254745#p254745).

Looked like a double top (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254749#p254749) but I'm always skeptical, so a question mark here and the breakdown was met again by sharp reversal up (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254754#p254754) and now up was a little more likely then down since it's the 3rd touch.

The breakout (green arrow) was met by a reversal down as well. It's not just common on the breakdown, the breakout more often is fake too, just the reversal down usually won't go far, bulls would then try again soon, unlike the sharp reversal up after a breakdown, the up can be up and up and up, no chances to escape.
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Cobra
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Re: 05/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by Cobra »

It was not a 3 push up actually, see green arrows. Bull bar got larger and larger on each push up so the up momentum wasn't weakened at all. Too bad, my mind was still shocked by the morning sharp down so I found hard to believe the trend was reversed.
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nikman
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Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 1:20 am

Re: 05/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by nikman »

Thanks Cobra!! Amazing commentary 2 days in a row! Very helpful for everyone who is paying attention to how you analyze the market using the 5-minute chart. Long time members of this board know very well the definition of your 3-push up... the "up" becomes smaller and smaller with every iteration. Even I forgot that part. :-)
daytradingES
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Re: 05/24/2018 Market Recap

Post by daytradingES »

Cobra wrote:
I wasn't prepared for the sharp down. By here (viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2894&p=254694#p254694), even I realized I might be able to short (I actually didn't even think about a short), it's already too late because it's near the yesterday's low now which should be a potential support .

The chart below shows the best short setup of the day, at which time I had no intention to trade at all. It's not a mistake FOR ME (arguable for others maybe, I'll remember to check again later). I'll keep the reason for now, I believe some traders have similar rules as of mine here.
Hi Cobra thanks for the market summaries.

Yes I have similar rules. The first plunge took most of the range I expected for the day and as you say it was too close to yesterday's low. One wants to short but it's too late, the reward:risk is no longer there. (From the complete reversal at the end of the day one can see how dangerous a short would be.)

The first plunge was -16.25 pts (ES) in just 16 mins and the bounce only 7 mins. Though there was a second downleg there was no need for it to be.

I think we all benefit from your insights.

Keep up the great work! :)
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
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