11/17/2018 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week had 64% chances to close up.

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department
Short term classic TA indicators and momentum had been improving, fear index is also leaning to the bullish side of late.
short term VIX suggested sideways to up in a coming days.

The candle side of things are clear that bulls are in control, Elder Impulse System and Heikin-Ashi are the two most tell of strength and weakness and the change in trend. for now up is the direction.

Internals are excellent on the bulls side, short term price action I still see 2750 is key resistance, Monday or Tuesday I hope we made it out or gap and go, will find out tonight on the futures market right? After all it's Holiday season. Peace!

[daytradingES]

I think the double top is in play -shown by the horizontal pink line.

Will they run stops above this? (Scenario A) or will they let them and go down?

(Scenario A is more likely with a higher open on Monday and Scenario B is more likely with a lower open on Monday.)

Even if we have a higher open and A plays out on Monday, I feel they will let it drop after running the stops - though probably not drop that much. To run the stops and push higher will require a very bullish tone to news.

If scenario B plays out Monday should be a down day with a low below Friday's low.

We have had 6 new daily lower lows and only two new higher highs. That should influence things in the fund managers' eyes and if there were redemption notices (on Nov 15) I think they will want to action them in the first 3 days of the upcoming week. Perhaps they don't like the prices but the prices on next week after the US holiday might be much lower. Being risk adverse, I think they would bite the bullet and do the selling before the holiday weekend.

(the problem with trying to guess their thinking is that they are "all" just kids with no memory of crashes and experience of BTD (buy the dips)