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12/15/2018 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Down 2 weeks in a row the next week has 63% chances to close up.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Today IWM broke below its February low
In so doing, it joined the transports, financials, industrials, the buybacks etf (PKW), e-commerce (DJECOM), semiconductors (and probably some others)
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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Cobra
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Al_Dente wrote:Today IWM broke below its February low
In so doing, it joined the transports, financials, industrials, the buybacks etf (PKW), e-commerce (DJECOM), semiconductors (and probably some others)
big caps usually are the last to fall.

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Al_Dente
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
te_fern
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by te_fern »

I was just looking at Health and man did it give a head fake. It lost the gains in the circle (green bars) in just 2 days (blue bars). Hard to move that fast in my long term account...
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tsf
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

SentimenTrader @sentimentrader

According to the Backtester, when Ma & Pa have gotten this despondent,
tech stocks rallied an average of 29% over the next year.

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tsf
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by tsf »

Jeff Saut,
Raymond James Chief Investment Strategist
40-year veteran of Wall Street with an knack for market timing calls a bottom in stocks

The stock market has reached a bottom following a tumultuous 10 weeks, longtime strategist Jeff Saut says.

The U.S. economy is not going to slow as much as expected
and earnings will be strong next quarter.

"The trick is not to be the hottest stock-picker, the winning forecaster,
or the developer of the neatest model; such victories are transient.
The trick is to survive."

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/13/raymond ... ter%7Cmain

https://www.raymondjames.com/pandopartn ... t.htm#head



Volatility is dominating the investment landscape,
but as Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam reminds us,
several positive factors remain.

Bottom line: The balance of economic and fundamental dynamics we analyze suggest
the current market sell-off presents a buying opportunity
for investors with a long term investment outlook.

https://www.raymondjames.com/pointofvie ... ntstrategy
debaser
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Re: 12/15/2018 Weekend Update

Post by debaser »

BullBear52x wrote:I am not trading but seeing something worth mention. ever heard of Wyckoff theory? see low volume bear trap, we are in C phase of it now I think. never thought they will pull it on the main index, individual stock I see it all the time. well,looks like a Wyckoff accumulation to me. can't wait to trade next year. Peace!
Last week BullBear52x posted the above idea of a Wyckoff pattern on the indexes which made me look into it a bit more. As shown in chart below we may have just seen the "spring" part of the pattern last Friday:
Wyckoff SPY 2018
Wyckoff SPY 2018
(The declining volume over the course of the pattern is thought to be indicative of supply being absorbed.)

I also found a similar Wyckoff pattern on SPY in September 2011 (so I guess they have pulled it off on the index before?):
Wyckoff SPY 2011
Wyckoff SPY 2011
In addition to the Wyckoff pattern, there are other similarities between now and Sept 2011: SPY/VIX divergence (SPY made a lower low while VIX made a lower high during the "spring") and relative weakness of QQQ turning into relative strength vs. SPY over the course of the Wyckoff pattern.

How this pattern could play out: a flush-type move on Monday morning to suck in the late-to-party shorts, followed by a V-shape bounce later in the day or Tuesday. Then roughly following the dotted line over the course of December, with the extreme ramp in Phase D of the graph being caused by a short-squeeze (as per McElligott: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12- ... ast-upside).
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