Back to www.cobrasmarketview.com

01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post Reply
User avatar
Cobra
Site Admin
Posts: 58344
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 10:29 pm

01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Up 4 weeks in a row means 69% chances up again the next week and 81% chances higher high ahead the next week, so not bad for bulls.
3.png

Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.
Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Selective January summary:
*Apple cut revenue guidance (for the first time in 16 years)
• Macy's cut profit guidance, sending its shares plunging the most on record
• Barnes and Noble and FedEx and Delta cut profit guidance
• American Airlines cut guidance

• Job cuts at Ford Europe, Jaguar, and Blackrock. Evidently slashing employees is bullish but I can’t bring myself to color it green.
• Fed tilts a bit more “dovish”
Citigroup beat eps, missed rev
• 1/15/19 Netflix raises prices 13-18% (stock up 5.6%)
* Wells Fargo mortgage applications drop to the lowest level since the financial crisis, beat eps, missed rev
• JP Morgan missed eps

• 1/16/19 GS, BAC, SCHW, USB eps beat
* Mortgage applications increased 13.5% vs expected 23.5%
• 1/17 growth in US home prices slowed in December…the smallest annual increase since 2012 …
• MS missed

• Philly Fed Mfg increased
• Jobless claims hit five week low

NFLX beats eps consensus, but eps was lower than last year, revs below estimates
• AXP beats eps, revs barely missed the consensus

• 1/17 – 1/18 Job cuts at Nissan, State Street, TSLA.
1/18 Job cuts at Foxconn, one of AAPL's biggest iPhone suppliers… bracing for weak sales ahead.
• Industrial Production Jumps
• China promises stimulus and offers to go on a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S.

UMich Confidence down, lowest since 2016 election.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

1/18/19
PayPal will provide up to $25 million in interest-free cash advances to help federal government employees pay for food, gas and other everyday necessities, during the partial government shutdown.
“Starting immediately, PayPal is offering an interest-free cash advance up to $500, the equivalent of one week’s take home, for any existing or new PayPal Credit customers who are federal employees and are struggling to make ends meet,” PayPal CEO said.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

[Various sources include Colin Twiggs, Keystone Speculator, JPM, zh, Nomura, and Pasta]
Beware the eventual test of the December low, BUT…
Nothing matters except central banks. The central bankers are the market.
Powell got a bit “dovish.”
ECB’s Draghi hinted that their easy money policies may continue for a longer period of time.
BOJ promised to maintain its easy monetary policies with no plans to change course.
China promised stimulus and offered to go on a six-year buying spree to ramp up imports from the U.S.

But focus not only on central bank “jawboning,” and our FED potentially pausing rate hikes, but ALSO watch what the FED is doing with its balance sheet.
"By now only clueless hacks will deny that adding liquidity in the form of QE was the single, most important factor driving asset classes higher over the past decade. According to JPM, the impact of QE was ~20% of equity prices."
Conversly, “there is no denying that the shrinking of the Fed's balance sheet [QT] does affect the S&P in an adverse way.”

Most macro traders will not "fight the Fed", meaning when liquidity is added they are buying assets, and when liquidity is removed [in the WEEK that large amounts of treasurys are scheduled to mature] they are selling assets.

This is the QT [Quantitative Tightening: when treasurys mature or “roll”, the FED is not reinvesting the proceeds] schedule that traders reportedly have taped to their screens. (Go to the H1 2019 column and move down to 23-Jan, 30-Jan, etc):
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=MD0kESLk

And this is the effect of QT on the balance sheet in histogram form.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=Kui1xZeL
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
User avatar
BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 01/19/2019 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

From it is what it is department: Calling a TOP or Bottom is a fool's game.

lets look at /ES short squeeze, bears came close but only to meet with a squeeze. in TA view bullish to continue but doesn't solve the overbought conditions. my take from this is still the same, a relief rally pull back is due, I am not calling the top but the new buy from this junction is only good for day trading only, I am expecting 2600 will revisit at the least in coming week.
1.PNG

Look at short term std overbought conditions this is a bullish profit taking stop level more than a new buy point. Top of BB, Keltner channels, and $RHSPX are due for a pull back. %B may have a little more to go but I am ready for a turn as a short term trade from here.
2.PNG
And.....for the wishful thinking this is what I got. Intraday
3.PNG
daily bullish view (sorry bears, break the 61.8% I will reconsider this ;) )
4.PNG
And....for the bull or bear market if that pays, but I am really careless of major trend since I am day trade type. I posted this chart before and very self explanatory, it's bullish now
5.PNG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
Post Reply