01/09/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to cobra@cobrasmarketview.com.

=============================================================================================================================================================================

Broke out of the range, haven't touched the EMA20 for awhile so bias is up.

[BullBear52x]

Monday, gap up and flat boring all day is its signature, let see how this will hold up. buy dips. as overbought as it is, bear market rally can be deadly to bears.

[BullBear52x]

$VIX is up also, things that make you go Hmmm

[jademann]

I always thought that when VIX is green AND the SPY is green its a good time to short..
Its worked many times for me..

[JFR]

ES daily.

Breaking out of the base, which it has been in for 14 days. Above the EMA 20. Blue sky above.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Helluva move up on Friday. Today it is up to R1.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:20 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/01 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Up to R1, where it finds some resistance.

[Cobra]

A breakout here would be an early sign of an uptrend day.

[BullBear52x]

Fib Fan, since 2008 bottom. bulls will have a hard time this year.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histo ... =home-page

Some excerpts from the article ...

Historical data shows there is a high chance that the U.S. stock market may record a return of 20% or more this year after the three major indexes closed 2022 with their worst annual losses since 2008, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors.

Fundstrat’s head of research Tom Lee said stock-market investors are more likely to see a year of positive returns than a flat year after stocks performed badly in the previous year.

In the 19 instances of a negative S&P 500 index SPX, 0.87% return year since 1950, over half of those years were followed by the large-cap index gaining more than 20%, according to Fundstrat’s data. Only two of those years were followed by a flat year with a return ranging from 5% to negative 5% .

Global ‘disinflation’ underway

Lee and his team think the U.S. inflation will undershoot the Federal Reserve and markets’ consensus by a wide margin in 2023.

Wage gains are set to slow

“Despite what look like ‘strong’ jobs markets, leading indicators already suggest wage gains are set to slow,” Lee said.

The employment report on Friday showed wage growth was less than expected in December in a sign that inflation pressure could be easing. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and increased 4.6% from a year ago, slightly less than expected and down from 0.4% a month earlier.

However, payroll growth, though it decelerated in December, was still better than expected, a sign that the labor market remains strong even as the economy faces rising headwinds from the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, slipped to 3.5% from 3.6%.

Equity (VIX) and bond volatility (MOVE) to fall sharply

Equity and bond market volatility is likely to fall sharply in 2023, in response to a fall in inflation and a consequently less hawkish Fed, said Lee and his team. “Our analysis shows this drop in VIX is a huge influential factor in equity gains, which would further support over 20% gains in stocks.”

The CBOE Volatility Index VIX, 1.89% was off 6.4%, at 21.03 on Friday, while the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE Index, a gauge of implied bond-market volatility, was last at 119.53.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Trying for a breakout.

[BullBear52x]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histo ... =home-page

2023-01-09_07-26-45.png

Some excerpts from the article ...

.

When was the last time Tom Lee ever go bearish in his career?

[BullBear52x]

3965 is key resistance on /ES, time to take profit there.

[BullBear52x]

Dips will be bought intraday, and to maintain positive price action, we need to close above the red line.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histo ... =home-page

2023-01-09_07-26-45.png

Some excerpts from the article ...

.

When was the last time Tom Lee ever go bearish in his career?

Not so many bears, compared to bulls, it seems, amongst the "oracles of Wall Street."

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Moving on up, trying to lock in the breakout above R1.

[BullBear52x]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histo ... =home-page

2023-01-09_07-26-45.png

Some excerpts from the article ...

.

When was the last time Tom Lee ever go bearish in his career?

Not so many bears, compared to bulls, it seems, amongst the "oracles of Wall Street."

None, He is buy side. nothing wrong with that as long as we recognize that the author is permabull.

[JFR]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/histo ... =home-page

2023-01-09_07-26-45.png

Some excerpts from the article ...

.

When was the last time Tom Lee ever go bearish in his career?

Not so many bears, compared to bulls, it seems, amongst the "oracles of Wall Street."

None, He is buy side. nothing wrong with that as long as we recognize that the author is permabull.

Those writers have to be bullish, methinks. Gotta be optimists.

This trader does not really care which way the market goes, but I prefer it to be smooth and orderly. Down market brings value plays, and shorts. Up market is no doubt easier to play.

I think you pretended to be a permabear for a while there. Ha ha.

[BullBear52x]

Those writers have to be bullish, methinks. Gotta be optimists.

This trader does not really care which way the market goes, but I prefer it to be smooth and orderly. Down market brings value plays, and shorts. Up market is no doubt easier to play.

I think you pretended to be a permabear for a while there. Ha ha.

[/quote]
I am "only price pays" if I am bearish this is top. Haha, but no sell will wait for dip buy first to see if buyers are serious to hold this up today.