01/09/2023 Live Update

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Count looks OK but I must assume (Hat tip to Pasta Boss for BBB) that this a squeeze counting on retirement money coming into the market from automatic payroll systems. I say that because Fed has not backed off yet. In the past when they back off and the 3 month 10 year rates return to normal (usually fast) that is because the Fed is cutting like crazy to stop the recession they just caused.

[BullBear52x]

First swing buy set up triggered. What is time frame of your trade? intraday: sell the rips.

[Al_Dente]

Remains to be seen if SPY can hit that inverse H&S target, cyan
30m

[merryme]

Remember there were trapped longs who have probably dumped by now. Waiting to see the next structure develop.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

The opportunity to reduce gas prices by drawing down the strategic reserve is essentially over. So that will reduce supply by about a million barrels a week. China has authorized back to normal (more or less) imports of crude for their refiners to fuel the re-opening of the economy and of course to export refined products to bring in dollars.

Bulls are saying this is a great opportunity to buy. Bears are saying US demand is going to drop like a rock as the economy tanks. Bears say China will not go back to what it was pre-covid for some time. What hasn't been written is that Biden Administration has increased taxes on oil starting now.

On the longer term bull side Russian production is dropping. Traditional OPEC is unable to pump enough to meet their own quotas, Biden's attempt to get Venezuelan and Iranian crude through other that back channels has failed so far. But Treasury Secretary Yellen has not backed off on saying no new money for US drillers and his interior department is doing everything they can to end production on public land. At the same time move to electric cars is stumbling along with all new car sales.

My personal thought is that all the green policies of the Biden Admin have been an existing oil well owner's best friend and we have two plus years at the minimum before Washington could go back to Drill Baby Drill and bring down prices.

[BullBear52x]

Make it or fake it. show me the money or bear we go....

[Cobra]

Consolidation, breakdown is more likely.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

What Cobra said!
3910 looks pretty empty. And the ledge at 3915 is clear support.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Sorry, posted an old chart.

[BullBear52x]

Think auction, a failed breakout will be ugly fast.

[Al_Dente]

Same 30min chart posted earlier
It uses bolinger 34,2
The RED BOXES show that as soon as it extends above the BB and starts pulling back, that drop can be small or BIG... but drop it does

[jademann]

I sold my SPXU for a nice trade and am now flat. Will look for new opportunities tomorrow.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:33 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/01 ... ay-update/

[merryme]

TEXTBOOK retest. No breakdown from here allowed.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/01 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Tuesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374