05/25/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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The chart looks missing a revisit of the low.

[JFR]

ES daily.

"Back in the saddle again ... "

Back in the same, endless trading range once again.

After a failed breakout attempt.

Hanging on the EMA 20.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Hello, bulls.

After two down days, the bulls make an appearance.

Up from 4114, catch the breath at the Pivot, on through R1, heading north.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Very nice action, this morning. Smooth. No chop. Playable as day trades and scalps.

Smooth sailing won't last.

[JFR]

Source

https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/25/investin ... index.html

New York CNN

There are just four trading days left until the United States hits its “X” day — the ominous-sounding hard deadline for the government to raise the debt ceiling or risk defaulting on its obligations, according to the US Treasury. Investors are starting to squirm.

It’s not like this took Wall Street by surprise. The US government hit its self-imposed debt ceiling back in January, forcing the Treasury to start taking extraordinary measures to keep the government paying its bills and escalating pressure on Capitol Hill to avoid a catastrophic default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has been warning of a June 1 deadline for nearly a month.

US markets have largely shrugged off talk of a default. All three major indexes climbed higher last week. And analyst notes discussing the topic have been heavily caveated that there’s a near-zero chance of an actual default. “A debt ceiling deal is a certainty and every market actor knows it,” wrote David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group on Wednesday.

But markets have experienced a vibe shift in the last 24-48 hours. The Dow plummeted more than 250 points Wednesday as investors were appeared to wake up to the reality that for the first time in US history, the government could renege on its bills. Treasury yields, which move in the opposite direction to prices, were higher as worries of a default grew.

House Republicans are insisting on spending cuts before they will agree to raise the nation’s debt ceiling past $31 trillion. Democrats argue that Congress already spent the money and must be allowed to repay America’s debt holders without an embarrassing and economically disastrous default.

Fitch — one of the top three credit rating agencies along with Moody’s and S&P — signaled on Wednesday evening that it could downgrade the United States’ perfect rating if lawmakers do not agree to raise the debt limit.

The warning is “just the latest sign that policy brinkmanship over the debt ceiling is extracting a growing price on the US economy and placing in jeopardy well-functioning financial markets that are critical to the health of the American real economy,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM LLC.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4018 ... r-hostage/

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) said Tuesday that he and his conservative colleagues “don’t feel like we should negotiate with our hostage” on a debt-limit compromise.

That is not government. It is anarchy or worse. I guess this nightmare never ends. Break up the country? Could it come to that? I think so.

[Al_Dente]

8:30 GDP Q1 [Q1 GDP Growth Revised up to 1.3% Annual Rate]
8:30 Initial Jobless Claims [Initial Jobless Claims Rise After Massachusetts Fraud Revisions]
8:30 Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 Corporate profits
9:50 Fed's Barkin Speech
10:00 Pending Home Sales
11:00 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey
4:30 PM Fed Balance Sheet

[Al_Dente]

Earnings: Thursday, May 25 - Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Ralph Lauren (RL), Autodesk (ADSK), and Costco (COST).
Earnings: Friday, May 26 - Big Lots (BIG).

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

"Crash. Boom. Bah."

[JFR]

NYSE TICK somewhat chaotic, running mostly bearish. 1 minute.

Price is looking for support, and trying to rebound.

[JFR]

NYSE TICK and ES. 1 minute.

Now we've got some chop. "Let's be careful out there."

Taking a break ...

[Cobra]

Members only update at 9:58 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/05 ... ay-update/

[Serenity]

Since 1960, Congress has increased the ceiling seventy-eight times, most recently in 2021. Forty-nine of these increases were implemented under Republican presidents, and twenty-nine were under Democratic presidents.
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-h ... bt-ceiling

[Al_Dente]

SMH has a total of 26 holdings, mostly technology stocks from the U.S. that are in the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 index.
The top 10 holdings are 65.82% of the assets.
NVDA is 15.2% of SMH (its #1 holding)
https://stockanalysis.com/etf/smh/holdings/

[BullBear52x]

Intraday: it is bullish that we have swing high. think auction at this point, looks like a fail breakout.

[BullBear52x]

On my swing setup: This morning swing high earned bulls a buy dip coupon. overall big picture we are going no where since mid April.

[BullBear52x]

Mid band clusters.

[Al_Dente]

RIP Tina Turner
Simply the Best
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SvCyFHWBUlc

[Cobra]

Maybe the low was in for today.

[BullBear52x]

Daily price action; so far two failed attempts for bulls and bears could not make a new LL either. so....day trade her out or take a vacation until the dust settled. BORING!!!!!!

[BullBear52x]

Sideways market is hard for traders, when people lost money they blame on something else other than themselves. blame it on the Fed, the government, Michael Jackson, the dog, the cat, on an on ..........I am going fishing, see you next week.