09/02/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 55% chances to close up, 75% chances to make a higher high. So more up.

[te_fern]

Over the holiday weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

[JFR]

SPY daily.

5 days on the bounce.

EMAs all positive, and in the right order.

About to push the Bollinger up.

Volume light on the bounce.

MACD up, crossing zero.

Sto at the top.

Flat, forming a base.

Bottom on August 18.

Higher highs. Many higher lows.

Not confimed uptrend yet for this trader. Day trades only.

Just in my opinion.

[theRASPYone]

Looks like there is a potential gap fill approaching too. I noticed it a bit late like always!
Thanks for the charts and posts to all.
Nice call on the big up move on Tuesday. I wish I partook.
Cobra, you are referring to us as humans! Have you become a robot!?
Perhaps you are becoming a master trader in tune with the market, and how illogical, and counterintuitive it is. I still think its mainly manipulated overall rather then anything counterintuitive. In my opinion.
Well, thanks for sharing the stuff you do.

[Cobra]

The forum will be shut down tonight for the upgrade.

I don't know how long the upgrade will take, hopefully I can finish tonight.

[tsf]

Abby Joseph Cohen often liked to say US market is the only game in town.
Today, per Bloomberg:
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/sputtering- ... -1.1966440
Sputtering Europe and Jittery China Add Bull Case for US Stocks
Stagflation risks mount in Europe, China in deflation
US stocks set to beat Europe for eighth time in last decade

Europe’s stagflation crisis and a property downturn in China are flashing a familiar message:
for equity investors, there is no real alternative to the US stock market.

With four months left of 2023, returns on the S&P 500 boast about an eight percentage-point lead over the Stoxx Europe 600.
The index is on course for its eighth year of outperformance in the past decade, as the artificial intelligence buzz overshadows economic
recession fears and pricey valuations.

What's more, the Federal Reserve's policy-tightening has cooled inflation while managing to keep the economy growing at just over 2%
Data Friday reinforced that soft-landing picture, showing a pick up in labor hiring and a slight slowdown in wage growth.

“US stocks are the place to be,” said Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc, who recommends using any S&P 500 pullback to buy.

[Cobra]

Hmm, seems the upgrade went smoothly, now seems done.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

from the evil site, with lots of graphs, a second opinion on inflation
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/the ... ft-landing
I have seen several articles over the last couple of weeks (when I have had internet). My personal summary-

1. Government uses a lagged figure for owners equivalent cost and the rents components in their CPI monthly. If they were using current, rather than 6 month old figures inflation would currently be running under 2% .
2. Fiscal policy has continued to push more money into the system faster than the Fed is draining it.
3. Banks still have lots of cash to lend and are continuing to lend so the Fed has not slowed that.
4. Banks have not raised rates as quickly as the Fed.
5. Fed has a long way to go reducing their balance sheet.
6. US Treasury is not issuing much, if any, new long term debt they are funding the deficits with short term money.

When will Fed reverse course? Big threat is the CRI (Commercial Real Estate Investment) ticking time bomb. Reportedly 70% of that debt is held by banks. The loans have a five year call and they are lumpy on the maturities. The issue is that you cannot justify the balance given current valuations and rents. So a potential banking collapse where the Fed will be forced to step in.

[te_fern]

McClellon Indicator turned last week!

[te_fern]

High Yield is still hanging in there...

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Happy labor day! for that lets look at the employment data, on the employment side of things, it is flashing recession.

Daily entering sell the rip but not yet trigger, swing setup is still in a buy, Megaphone top. bulls can not stop here.

Intraday: Friday closed with a negative price action, down Friday the weakness should follow through the following trading day. same playbook, keep it simple. Peace!