03/02/2013 Weekend Update

[TWT]

Weekly Technical Analysis

http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/03/0 ... ysis-0303/

[KeiZai]

Nice charts BB and others

Here is my monthly view on apple, likely bounce is coming soon but I am not sure this stock will ever break the all time highs

Weekly aapl is here: (last pic) viewtopic.php?f=2&t=837&p=119699#p119699

Dollar index : big resistance ahead

Older chart, not sure if this just overshoot or start of the something uber bullish but I am still playing with the bearish count until triangle is holding (first chart)

Euro : I am looking to buy for at least +350pips

[KeiZai]

$CCI is not looking so healthy here, bad for commodities.

The attachment 2.JPG is no longer available

The attachment 3.JPG is no longer available

The attachment 4.JPG is no longer available

Agree this is the most bullish count I can see there, others are quite bearish

[KeiZai]

Bond market update

Last two charts: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=830&p=118469#p118469

10Y

Bunds

[KeiZai]

Yahoo : Time to take profit and see what happens there, corrective pullback is a buy again for me

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=716&p=102244#p102244

[KeiZai]

BKX

[jademann]

Saw this and thought the POMOs had stopped!

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo/ ... /index.cfm

Here is the correct link (I think) althought they are not spectacular.

http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_o ... edule.html

[StudentBill]

Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?

My take is that it is best to see events like that, data releases, Fed Meetings, as possible pivot points for the market or stock, whatever. You should be prepared for an effect either way but not bias yourself one way or the other. When TA people say "New doesn't matter" I think they need to explain further. Obviously the news can move markets but they are correct that a trader should not try to front run the news with a specific outcome in mind. My opinion FWIW...

[KeiZai]

Eurostoxx : wishy washy forever It's starting to be big mess, this is most likely short-term outcome for me

O: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=839&p=120135#p120135

Chill out time Enjoy the w/e

[taggard]

Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?

My take is that it is best to see events like that, data releases, Fed Meetings, as possible pivot points for the market or stock, whatever. You should be prepared for an effect either way but not bias yourself one way or the other. When TA people say "New doesn't matter" I think they need to explain further. Obviously the news can move markets but they are correct that a trader should not try to front run the news with a specific outcome in mind. My opinion FWIW...

you mention two key ideas . (1) a trader should not try to front run the news with a specific outcome in mind. and (2) you should be prepared for an effect either way--but not bias yourself one way or another. this is pretty much how one should be all the time.

the problem is the number and type of events that influence market action--we have news--political events-- forced shortcovering at various times of the day--seasonal factors and so on that are to me like news events. on one hand it's totally valid to note they have effects--but in actual trading this is surprisingly hard to use. since you have to respond after the news and in the way the market takes the news. so the focus shifts from the news to the traders mind

if one can approach these pivots with an empty mind and act very quickly--then they could be of value--no matter if they are news seasonal market internal based--but if you put a gun to my head (and it always feels like somebody when you are messing around out there) i would argue that internal preparation of the trader is of more value than knowing pivots. as is seen frequently in the odd case of everyone having the same data and for whatever reason (would love to see more discussion of this) only a few traders making great use of it. or put yet another way--everything is in the price action if we can only calm down and see it. in effect you are describing the state i should be in all the time.

specifically "news doesn't matter" (to me) refers to the idea that "it's not the news release--it's the meaning attributed by the market--as defined in price action just after the release--that matters"

you bring up interesting points/good luck with your trading

[Al_Dente]

Perma-bull just sold all but one holding and went to cash (last Thursday, 2/21).
Here’s why:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1233351 ... view&ifp=0

[Al_Dente]

Two drivers of a potential SPX continuation rally would be:
1) an increase in margin debt
2) bonds need to go down to fuel a continuation SPX rally (investors would sell bonds and buy stock with the proceeds).

I can’t chart #1 on a regular basis. If you can, please share a reproducible chart with open settings, thanks.
We can all chart #2 by watching $UST (or its ETF proxy TLT), or the reciprocal $TNX yield (TBT is its proxy ETF). You all have great TLT charts.

Or you can go overkill, and obsess over what the “punditocracy” keeps calling the “Great Rotation” (selling bonds and buying stocks in 2013),
and look at it with an international eye across various asset classes.
I currently see rotation out of developed and emerging-market bonds AND INTO U.S. bonds, but you are welcome to disagree:

[caveat: this is a percentage-performance chart, and it will look very different depending on your start date]
[hat tip: chart inspired by capitalspeculator]
[also: vote snake sunday: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859]

[jademann]

I have found the last 10 days trading very confusing so I simplified it and now I see a topping pattern similar to last sep/oct.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... 5940886729

[StudentBill]

Does it make sense to only consider technical charts and not to also consider the real world fundermental effects such as the sequestration failure this weekend?

My take is that it is best to see events like that, data releases, Fed Meetings, as possible pivot points for the market or stock, whatever. You should be prepared for an effect either way but not bias yourself one way or the other. When TA people say "New doesn't matter" I think they need to explain further. Obviously the news can move markets but they are correct that a trader should not try to front run the news with a specific outcome in mind. My opinion FWIW...

you mention two key ideas . (1) a trader should not try to front run the news with a specific outcome in mind. and (2) you should be prepared for an effect either way--but not bias yourself one way or another. this is pretty much how one should be all the time.

the problem is the number and type of events that influence market action--we have news--political events-- forced shortcovering at various times of the day--seasonal factors and so on that are to me like news events. on one hand it's totally valid to note they have effects--but in actual trading this is surprisingly hard to use. since you have to respond after the news and in the way the market takes the news. so the focus shifts from the news to the traders mind

if one can approach these pivots with an empty mind and act very quickly--then they could be of value--no matter if they are news seasonal market internal based--but if you put a gun to my head (and it always feels like somebody when you are messing around out there) i would argue that internal preparation of the trader is of more value than knowing pivots. as is seen frequently in the odd case of everyone having the same data and for whatever reason (would love to see more discussion of this) only a few traders making great use of it. or put yet another way--everything is in the price action if we can only calm down and see it. in effect you are describing the state i should be in all the time.

specifically "news doesn't matter" (to me) refers to the idea that "it's not the news release--it's the meaning attributed by the market--as defined in price action just after the release--that matters"

you bring up interesting points/good luck with your trading

Thanks. I think you are correct that you should always be totally aware and in that ready to act state, that is ideal. But for someone who might not be really day trading or have access to charts or accounts all day long being aware of possible time based catalysts for market action and creating a plan,for either bull or bear outcome, might be a good strategy.

[Al_Dente]

Bespoke
“Key Asset Class Performance In February And YTD”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1237801 ... view&ifp=0

[wayne0708]

Harapa,
Thanks for the charts. they look good but I still dont know what you mean without
1. what the axis are plotting ....... and/or
2. a few words to explain whether I should buy hold or sell according to whether I see green red or crossover.

This comment applies to the most of the charts posted here unfortunately.. and even if you post it once that doesnt mean we all know what it means going forward..

harapa I reread your post about how VIX determines direction .. Friday VXX was green yet the markets up!

Excellent comments
Totally agree with you that there are so many chart gurus on this board, or at least that what they think they are after posting some charts.
My words of advice for you, please don't waste your time trying to read their charts, most of them are garbage. If their charts are any good they wouldn't be here posting them for free
Like you I like TAs and charting very much, and I have spent enough time here to learn that there are only a handful of folks here really know charts and know the responsibility of posting meaningful charts. Usually they are the ones with simple charts and with enough texts to tell us what their charts want to tell us.
Most of descend or creditable chartists are listed in public stockcharts. I hope my post save you sometime in the future and use that time do your own charts. With enough time and dedication, I am sure your charts will serve you better and very likely will have more meaning than most here.
Good luck and enjoy charting

[taggard]

Thanks. I think you are correct that you should always be totally aware and in that ready to act state, that is ideal. But for someone who might not be really day trading or have access to charts or accounts all day long being aware of possible time based catalysts for market action and creating a plan,for either bull or bear outcome, might be a good strategy.

As always what works for you is what's best. but long or short term--it's fractal. when i started back in the 90s i was never in front of a screen and traded options blindly over days to months (all in semis esp amat) using a cell phone (with bad reception) and memorizing one chart at the start of the day. i used a live broker--really nice people did great work. the whole thing was hysterical as semis were up and down in cycles during the 90s and i was leveraged to death--with no technical understanding of charts or of options. important to note the cycle nature since many could think a bull makes for easy trading. so here i am out out in the woods or at the beach trying to deal with this lady in sf who is linked to new york to trade san jose stocks-gotta love it.

and i actually % made more money faster doing this for the most part sitting in front of screens. i also lost more money doing this but net net was miles ahead. Second the issue continues to be where do you draw the line--i think sure fed releases would fit your standard. would options ex fit them? or do we use time of day time of week time of month time of season or time of year. i am totally not trying to be a jerk here--i am seriously asking these questions in an attempt to address the core issues. well worth some time to most traders. there is no question that stuff (news etc) impacts price--it just harder than it looks to figure out how to use it (only as always in my opinion).

thank you good luck with your trades

[Al_Dente]

A look inside JPMs wealth management business

[Conflict-of-interests and pushing in-house products are business-as-usual on Wall St.
Plus, these products are “designed by expert asset managers” … (cough).
The article does not state, but I can almost guarantee, that the commission payout to brokers for selling in-house products far exceeds the payout on the sale of other products.]

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/03/02/ ... h_20130303

[Mr. BachNut]

SKEW update.

SKEW correction warning remains in effect. Two weeks remaining on latest signal, but it may be a dud.
Looks like we got a false start on a correction last week.
Interestingly, SKEW rebounded from the dip early in the week suggesting that the option market bears did not run to their caves but reloaded.
SKEW is now back above the moving average and there is a clear rising bottoms trend (though no new high weekly close).
So, this suggests that the table is still being set for a down move to come.

We are at an interesting juncture because the action of the last week provided a variety of technical evidence to support both bulls and bears IMO.
Confusing and conflicting signals are on the rise. Trade is working to take money away from both sides of the market.
In this context, I think the message of the SKEW chart is not a question of "if" but "when".
SKEW can continue to work its way up trend, which builds more energy for the downmove, but this particular signal may expire in the process; or things can get going.
With OPEX in two weeks, I have a hunch things may wait until that is done, but we'll just have to see how it goes.

It is somewhat interesting that the strong 1st quarter rallies of 2011 and 2012 each produced 2 duds before striking. Perhaps we get that again this year.
Sorry this data point can't be more precise on "when" a move is to get going... but you've got Cobra and other setups for that.

[Al_Dente]

Gold Committment-of-Traders still short
But if you could overlay your $GOLD chart on this, you might see that the COT level (large speculators) is in the same zone that produced the gold rallys/bounces last year (?), namely:
15-29 may 2012
24 july 2012
14 aug 2012

Can anyone post Gold COT (CMX) with $GOLD or GLD on the same chart (above, below or overlaid). Thanks

COT source link: http://www.dailymarkets.com/commitment-of-traders/