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09/07/2013 Weekend Update

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Cobra
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09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

I don't see any useful info on all the usual weekend update, so this is just to serve as a start of clean thread.

Institutional buying and selling action chart is from stocktiming. All other charts are from Sentimentrader.
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Cobra
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1046&p=141575#p141575

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Cobra
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Cobra »


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DellGriffith
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by DellGriffith »

I run my own homebrew composite signal and I typically trade on a medium term timeframe. I use the US indicies, and overlay the gold market on that, and then factor in if the dollar is strong or weak. I find that certain patterns and correlations work better in a strong dollar economy, while others work better in a weak dollar economy.

Anyway, my composite signal is bearish. It will remain bearish this entire week. Nothing will change that. So, there's my sentiment.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

It may be this simple:

There is a multi-month rising bottoms trend line from the November low that is providing support.
There is a multi-week declining tops trend line from the August high that should present resistance.
They'll be pinching the index next week and mash the following week.
The bull bear smackdown we experienced Friday should continue, and one trend will emerge to dominate the other.
A close that breaks trend probably wins on points. A close that breaks the local high/low (marked on chart) should win by knockout.

I have conflicting signals and technical arguments for both sides, but I am tilted bearish.
I thought Friday's close was bad. The Dow, which tends to lead, closed down, and the 5 day TRIN (chart) triggered an ARMs sell warning.
Both outcomes are on the table though.

Either way, this is likely to resolve next week, perhaps in dramatic fashion as these are significant trends.
It also wouldn't surprise me if the losing trend gets a last kiss goodbye after the initial break (but don't count on it).
TRIN 9713.jpg
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quientuves
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by quientuves »

Obame can't find support in Congress to attack Syria and now:

High-Level U.S. Intelligence Officers: Syrian Government Didn’t Launch Chemical Weapons

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -chemical-

Big up on Monday?
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

MEDIUM-TERM, not intraday
The percentage of net-new highs in the S&P 500, and also the the percentage of net-new highs in the S&P 1500 start ramping up on fresh-sustainable rallys (green boxes).
That hasn’t happened yet.
That is not medium-term bullish yet.
(Rationale: The S&P is not a rock nor an island. It is only as strong as its component constituents).

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=My9I8q-iJCI

http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859
97net high percent.png
Last edited by Al_Dente on Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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rhight
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by rhight »

Hello,
My gift to the group is a couple of SPX volume studies, and a 60min, 1 month chart with notations. It is obvious that we are consolidating within a range over the past 3 weeks. And so, I am in a neutral stance. I suspect the range will be broken within the next 3 trading days, just a hunch, these consolidations don't drag on forever. The NYSI is making a bull turn from oversold, which is usually a reliable signal, but if you look back over the past 4 years, you can see that it sometimes hick-ups during messy bottoming conditions (in 2010, 2011, and 2012 for instance) (hmmm . . . do you think there's a pattern there?) Early longs were probably stopped out on those occasions.

SPX 09-06-13 Daily - 4Mo - Vol by Price.png
Last edited by rhight on Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS
uempel
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by uempel »

Short term for Monday:
5.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

Hi Uempel:
Here’s my “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart update
The only thing turning up here is SPY
These will all start climbing up if/when the bulls take over the world again…
Honestly I wish u would post here instead of pm
luv u :D
97lazy man_png.png
Last edited by Al_Dente on Sat Sep 07, 2013 3:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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DellGriffith
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by DellGriffith »

Mr. BachNut wrote:It may be this simple:

There is a multi-month rising bottoms trend line from the November low that is providing support.
There is a multi-week declining tops trend line from the August high that should present resistance.
They'll be pinching the index next week and mash the following week.
That's interesting because after this week, my own system stands a good chance of going bullish.

Maybe both of us are pointing at the week after next as the critical point.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

97forty yrs.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
uempel
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by uempel »

Al_Dente wrote:Hi Uempel:
Here’s my “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart update
The only thing turning up here is SPY
These will all start climbing up if/when the bulls take over the world again…
Honestly I wish u would post here instead of pm
luv u :D
The attachment 97lazy man_png.png is no longer available
Al_Dente, for your eyes only :D
99.png
johnnywa
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by johnnywa »

quientuves wrote:Obame can't find support in Congress to attack Syria and now:

High-Level U.S. Intelligence Officers: Syrian Government Didn’t Launch Chemical Weapons

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -chemical-

Big up on Monday?
I doubt it new horror videos on cnn,international community behind strikes
jack black
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by jack black »

I think the attack will happen regardless. Gas attack is just an official explanation.
IMHO, there are only 2 good reasons for USA to start a war:
A. Saudis gave an ultimatum: go in or they stop oil export.
B. Israelis have proof that Iranians have a nuke and they have to be attacked while they are distracted by Syrian involvement.

Not sure which. Scenario A would be good news, I guess.
uempel
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by uempel »

Al_Dente wrote:Hi Uempel:
Here’s my “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart update
The only thing turning up here is SPY
These will all start climbing up if/when the bulls take over the world again…
Honestly I wish u would post here instead of pm
luv u :D
97lazy man_png.png
This chart by Al_Dente tells the whole story, no need to look much further: market is slowly deteriorating and SPX is trying to save itself (presumably by pushing up a few large caps or by pushing up the etf SPY, I have not yet looked into the precise numbers)
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

uempel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Hi Uempel:
Here’s my “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart update
The only thing turning up here is SPY
These will all start climbing up if/when the bulls take over the world again…
Honestly I wish u would post here instead of pm
luv u :D
97lazy man_png.png
This chart by Al_Dente tells the whole story, no need to look much further: market is slowly deteriorating and SPX is trying to save itself (presumably by pushing up a few large caps or by pushing up the etf SPY, I have not yet looked into the precise numbers)
The low TRIN reading over several days is consistent with that view.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

DellGriffith wrote:
Mr. BachNut wrote:It may be this simple:

There is a multi-month rising bottoms trend line from the November low that is providing support.
There is a multi-week declining tops trend line from the August high that should present resistance.
They'll be pinching the index next week and mash the following week.
That's interesting because after this week, my own system stands a good chance of going bullish.

Maybe both of us are pointing at the week after next as the critical point.
I am not sure Mr. Market will wait to show his cards. I would be prepared for clarity next week.
The following week though will have excitement as the FOMC taper meeting, OPEX and S&P Futures expiration will be on tap.
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Mr. BachNut
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

jack black wrote:I think the attack will happen regardless. Gas attack is just an official explanation.
IMHO, there are only 2 good reasons for USA to start a war:
A. Saudis gave an ultimatum: go in or they stop oil export.
B. Israelis have proof that Iranians have a nuke and they have to be attacked while they are distracted by Syrian involvement.

Not sure which. Scenario A would be good news, I guess.
It does seem as though there is some hidden strategic imperative motivating this thing at this point in history.
Either that or we have truly become the bad guys, perhaps both.
The Syrians have not attacked us or one of our allies. It is not U.S. doctrine to attack countries that do evil things to their own people (at least I don't think it is...).
We have been meddling in the destabilization of Libya and Egypt and made a hash out of Iraq and Afghanistan (not to mention other activities).
There are a lot of connecting dots here. I am reminded of that scene in Lawrence of Arabia where he gathers the tribes together, in Dasmascus I believe, to organize and chaos ensues.
Very tough to put together a winning trade in this neighborhood.

Sorry in advance for non-trading related post... :oops:
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DellGriffith
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by DellGriffith »

We entered a mini strong dollar economy recently, particularly in 2012, because the US attained safe haven status. People were afraid to invest in Europe as they slid into recession. So investors fled to dollars.

But now the European economy is seen as recovering, while the US begins to taper which could put downward pressure on the US economy. These twin events could make investors feel overexposed to dollars, so I expect we're entering another weak dollar economy period. It could also weigh on US equities for a while.

Bear setups simply didn't work for quite a while as everyone fled to dollars. Maybe we'll see the reverse and bull setups just won't work for a while as everyone flees dollars. I do suspect bears may win in the US in the upcoming months while everyone rebalances to the new economic climate. We'll see.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
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