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09/07/2013 Weekend Update

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Al_Dente
Posts: 28535
Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 2:29 pm

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

thx uempel and mr bachnut :D
members should read uempel’s xlnt explanation of BPs in Cobra’s “Trading Signals.”
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2013/09 ... g-signals/

OT
Here is some interesting quant work on the VIX (dated Aug 26)
He shows a “84% chance (1-sigma) that VIX will be at or below 14.0%” at opex, and a “97.5% chance (2-sigma) that VIX will be at or below 15.7%.” at opex.
VIX closed at 15.85 Friday.
[caveat: I have not checked the math, so, grain of salt]
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1656252 ... mc_focus_2
98quant vix_png.png
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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BullBear52x
Posts: 29516
Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by BullBear52x »

Confusing time? The internals look of how I see it.
Lots of improvements but here suggest no new high will be in just yet.
1.JPG
Intraday bulls almost made it out of the woods at end of day they were heading back in for some unknown reason
2.JPG
see what happen here when $CPCE this low of <.5
3.JPG
Not so fast Bears! the fat lady not sing yet, MOs are bullish.
4.JPG
50 DMA is clear, bulls need to push over that.
5.JPG
My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.
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TWT
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Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2011 6:57 am
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by TWT »

Friday was an extremely volatile day. The swift moves in both directions have left in the daily chart a Doji (A sign of indecision), delimiting the short-term resistance (50 d ma = 1665) and support (10 d ma = 1646). This is the battlefield that will determine if the current bounce has more business to the upside (Target range 1670 – 1685) or if bears resume the downtrend off the August peak with another down leg.

I will be watching the slope of the green line (3 d ma), which now is positive for clues of when the expected next directional move will begin

The pattern off the August 28 low is a mess of overlapping waves. Probably it is not done yet.

I can guess that price might be unfolding either a 11-wave pattern (TZZ) in which case the current pullback off last Friday´s hod should hold at the rising trend line should or it should not breach the 50 h ma = 1646 (It coincides with the 10 dma) or a Zig Zag in which case price is now unfolding a wave (B) pullback which must not interrupt the sequence of higher lows from the August 28 short term bottom hence a drop below 1640.59 would jeopardize the short-term bullish case

Bulls will encounter a tough resistance in the range 1667 (Downward slopping 200 h ma) – 1670 (0.5 Retracement - August 26 lower high).

There is a remote chance that 1670 could become the neckline of an Inverted H&S. An extremely bullish pattern that would allow price to revisit the August high.
Attachments
SPX DAILY.png
spx 60 min.png
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rhight
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Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2011 10:31 am

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by rhight »

Mr. BachNut wrote:
uempel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Hi Uempel:
Here’s my “Lazy Man’s Bullish Percent” chart update
The only thing turning up here is SPY
These will all start climbing up if/when the bulls take over the world again…
Honestly I wish u would post here instead of pm
luv u :D
97lazy man_png.png
This chart by Al_Dente tells the whole story, no need to look much further: market is slowly deteriorating and SPX is trying to save itself (presumably by pushing up a few large caps or by pushing up the etf SPY, I have not yet looked into the precise numbers)
The low TRIN reading over several days is consistent with that view.
I'm sorry, I must have missed something. A low TRIN is consistent with which view?

This is what I see; NYUPV has been 1.5 to 3.5 x NYDNV for 4 days, and NYADV has been > NYDEC for the same period, hence the low TRIN. SPXA50R has turned sharply up. Bullish Percentage always seems to lag bull turns by 4 days or so. On the face of it, all of that has to be considered bullish as far as a possible change in int. trend goes (3 w to 3 mo). Right? The fly in the ointment is low volume and bearish weekly momentum (although near bull support), and event risk on the horizon. The volume by price study I posted earlier seems to indicate that most longs are still holding. Even though VIX is still above its 20DMA, CPCE doesn't seem to indicate much concern. This may indicate that there will be enough dip buyers to make another attempt at a high. I'm neutral now, but hope to position in which ever way the wind blows. I'm concerned that the ingredients are there for a bull trap. If we can hold a close or 2 above the 50dma, then we may be on our way back up for a bit. Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of these interpretations.

A monster gap above resistance on Monday morning would be the easiest way for the Bulls to claim the advantage. 60 min momentum is overbought and about to turn, yet 15 min momentum is oversold and about to turn. Is that the formula for a pop-n-drop? One thing to note is that ADX DI- is still greater than DI+ on the Daily, 60 & 15 min time frames. Look for all these to realign when / if a new bull trend emerges.
Swing to Intermediate SPX Analysis - multiple time frame - Daily & 60 min time and price cycle analysis.
Usually trade SSO / SDS
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Auole
Posts: 174
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2011 3:03 am

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Auole »

Great bunch of charts everyone, special insight and clarity medal to rhight. Here's a lion's hug to y'all for helping me to learn daytrading nearly 2 yrs now. http://youtu.be/NLB_u695wTg
My little contribution is just a different view of about the same. I am still seeing similarities to the June 19th pattern. Different picture on the 4 hr. My gut says there may be another down turn but with the i-day up efforts it seems to really be trying to attempt a small bull run. Bout the same on gold; GDX has completely ignored gold's last 2 small up days and thus again my gut says some retrace forthcoming. /GC is on an 8 hr time frame to see what the 'other global 2/3' does with the intermediate red line in market forecast indicator tonight.
ESdy7septcob.png
ES4hr7septcob.png
GC8hr7septcob.png
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Al_Dente »

RHIGHT
This is excellent stuff:
"""NYUPV has been 1.5 to 3.5 x NYDNV for 4 days, and NYADV has been > NYDEC for the same period, hence the low TRIN. SPXA50R has turned sharply up. Bullish Percentage always seems to lag bull turns by 4 days or so. On the face of it, all of that has to be considered bullish as far as a possible change in int. trend goes (3 w to 3 mo).””” etc

But then you always post excellent stuff (no joke)
THANK YOU
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
daytradingES
Posts: 2245
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:46 am

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by daytradingES »

gann stuff in investors lounge
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1032&p=141604#p141604
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
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xfradnex
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Joined: Fri Sep 09, 2011 12:14 pm

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by xfradnex »

Is the next hump big or small?(started off small) :? :o 8-)
Attachments
Untitled.png
Flip that coin.

Legal note:Don't believe anything I say above. You may lose yourA$$..
My chart has Daily Elders (Close, High, and Low), MA-2, CCI, and ATR for each stock; all color coded.
daytradingES
Posts: 2245
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:46 am

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by daytradingES »

quientuves wrote:Obame can't find support in Congress to attack Syria and now:

High-Level U.S. Intelligence Officers: Syrian Government Didn’t Launch Chemical Weapons

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -chemical-

Big up on Monday?
Seems that something on zerohedge isn't evidence one way or another (this whole article can be total fabrication). Can one seriously believe that the writer of the article has access to "high CIA officials"? How could a "high CIA official" leak something like this and keep their job?. "red flag operation used for thousands of years" and commonly known as “plausible denial.” smells suspicious..) -it's like the Simpsons episode where Homer is Mr X... :D

In this day of satellite surveylience (sp?) there should be photos of a missile launch against Damascus -that's what obama should release if he has them...
--------------------------------------------------------

Aside from all this catering to mass media news noise:
1. We are at the half-way point and a good place for a fall - so I would say big down day could come very soon.

2. "The past week has seen some holding off or putting off, but as Mars completes a square-off aspect with Saturn early Monday morning the brakes come off." - local paper astro column.
Educational only and not trading advice (EO&NTA) :)
Good trading to all
User avatar
Mr. BachNut
Posts: 2688
Joined: Thu Feb 24, 2011 2:28 pm

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by Mr. BachNut »

rhight wrote:
Mr. BachNut wrote:
uempel wrote:
Al_Dente wrote:Hi Uempel:
This chart by Al_Dente tells the whole story, no need to look much further: market is slowly deteriorating and SPX is trying to save itself (presumably by pushing up a few large caps or by pushing up the etf SPY, I have not yet looked into the precise numbers)
The low TRIN reading over several days is consistent with that view.
I'm sorry, I must have missed something. A low TRIN is consistent with which view?

This is what I see; NYUPV has been 1.5 to 3.5 x NYDNV for 4 days, and NYADV has been > NYDEC for the same period, hence the low TRIN. SPXA50R has turned sharply up. Bullish Percentage always seems to lag bull turns by 4 days or so. On the face of it, all of that has to be considered bullish as far as a possible change in int. trend goes (3 w to 3 mo). Right? The fly in the ointment is low volume and bearish weekly momentum (although near bull support), and event risk on the horizon. The volume by price study I posted earlier seems to indicate that most longs are still holding. Even though VIX is still above its 20DMA, CPCE doesn't seem to indicate much concern. This may indicate that there will be enough dip buyers to make another attempt at a high. I'm neutral now, but hope to position in which ever way the wind blows. I'm concerned that the ingredients are there for a bull trap. If we can hold a close or 2 above the 50dma, then we may be on our way back up for a bit. Please correct me if I'm wrong on any of these interpretations.

A monster gap above resistance on Monday morning would be the easiest way for the Bulls to claim the advantage. 60 min momentum is overbought and about to turn, yet 15 min momentum is oversold and about to turn. Is that the formula for a pop-n-drop? One thing to note is that ADX DI- is still greater than DI+ on the Daily, 60 & 15 min time frames. Look for all these to realign when / if a new bull trend emerges.
A low TRIN is bullish. However, a very low TRIN over a few days doesn't appear often and can serve as a warning. You get it under the following circumstances:
1) an over-bought bounce in a high volatility market (not the case now).
2) the initiation of a bull trend when up volume really cranks (could be the case now but we haven't had much of a correction).
3) an over-bought or weak rally where the number of advancing stocks gets thin relative to the advancing volume (i.e. a few large caps pushing up the index).
Scenario 3 can be cured by a sell-off or a consolidation.
So, while a low TRIN is bullish, a low 5 day TRIN is a caution flag. You should include it in the bull trap ingredients you are concerned about but that is about it.
fehro
Posts: 22880
Joined: Fri Sep 02, 2011 2:06 pm

Re: 09/07/2013 Weekend Update

Post by fehro »

daytradingES wrote:
quientuves wrote:Obame can't find support in Congress to attack Syria and now:

High-Level U.S. Intelligence Officers: Syrian Government Didn’t Launch Chemical Weapons

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/20 ... -chemical-

Big up on Monday?
Seems that something on zerohedge isn't evidence one way or another (this whole article can be total fabrication). Can one seriously believe that the writer of the article has access to "high CIA officials"? How could a "high CIA official" leak something like this and keep their job?. "red flag operation used for thousands of years" and commonly known as “plausible denial.” smells suspicious..) -it's like the Simpsons episode where Homer is Mr X... :D

In this day of satellite surveylience (sp?) there should be photos of a missile launch against Damascus -that's what obama should release if he has them...
--------------------------------------------------------

Aside from all this catering to mass media news noise:
1. We are at the half-way point and a good place for a fall - so I would say big down day could come very soon.

2. "The past week has seen some holding off or putting off, but as Mars completes a square-off aspect with Saturn early Monday morning the brakes come off." - local paper astro column.
This seems to have the most in depth info that I've seen:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/09/nu ... -on-syria/
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