09/28/2013 Weekend Update

[Zane]

futures are now live, any thoughts?

[daytradingES]

futures are now live, any thoughts?

I had a dream last night of a big crash.
In the dream I was sitting beside another trader and a big red bar was forming (no LT on one of plastic with waiters and drinks! ) I said:
"This thing is going to Fall!!"

Opening bar this evening is a big gap down.

(see Cobra's first post about short positions)

[Cobra]

Futures gap down now consolidating at Fib 50%. I read it as H&S Top, targeting Fib 61.8% at 1659ish.

[daytradingES]

Futures gap down now consolidating at Fib 50%. I read it as H&S Top, targeting Fib 61.8% at 1659ish.

I see 1661 as the next hold (over Mon-tues) with probably some news manipulation
"temporary bill averts funding crisis" ,,blah, balh
a move up to shake out bears and then for 1661 to fail and 1642.25 as the nest possible place to hold.


For Monday lots of quick moves up and down on "news" lots of stop running

[fehro]

SPX 60m.. break the green trend line look for lower levels/ open gaps.

[Out of Bounds]

Snog on the /ES is augering in.
Will update tomorrow at some point. Holding fully short.

[Xian]

Cribbed form WaPo:

SHUTDOWNS OF MORE THAN 10 DAYS:

— 1976 Shutdown:

From Sept 30 to Oct. 11 under President Ford. S&P 500 goes from 105.24 to 101.64.

— 1977 Shutdown:

From Sept. 30 to Oct. 13 under Carter. S&P 500 starts at 96.53 and ends at 93.46.

— 1978 Shutdown:

From Sept. 30 to Oct. 18 under Carter. S&P starts at 102.54 and ends at 100.49.

— 1979 Shutdown:

From Sept. 30 to Oct. 12 under Carter. S&P goes from 108.56 to 104.49.

— 1995-1996 Shutdown:

From Nov. 14 to Nov. 19, 1995, under Clinton, the S&P goes from 592.30 to 600.07. And from Dec. 15 to Jan. 6, 1996, the S&P goes from 616.92 to 616.71.


During Ronald Reagan’s presidency from 1981 to 1989, shutdowns were a fairly regular occurrence and the government faced a funding shortfall on eight occasions. However, none of those lasted more than three days and many of them occurred over a weekend. Since stocks don’t trade over the weekend and the shutdowns were brief, investors had little reaction back then.

Under the Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter administrations, when the government was shut down for 10 days or more, the average decline for the stock market was more than 3 percent during closures.

Under Clinton the market went up during the shutdowns.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

Brief shutdowns ain't a big deal, I think what you're seeing tonight is people waking up from the fantasy that in a couple of weeks a debt ceiling resolution is a sure thing.

FWIW, GOP has enough votes to pass a "clean" bill and will probably have enough time to do it before midnight tomorrow. Despite what you may be seeing in the press, and it's true there are no backchannel negations going on, a shutdown ain't a sure thing. (even though it probably is )



PAGING COBRA: If this post makes people fight, please delete it right away. (I posted similar early Sat morning when the writing was on the wall, then thought better of it and deleted)

[jack black]

Heavy loses in Asian equities tonight. Gold is holding nicely, but silver is sliding slightly.
Looks like I should be able to close XLF shorts tomorrow and perhaps double up on miners?

[Out of Bounds]

Cribbed form WaPo:

SHUTDOWNS OF MORE THAN 10 DAYS:

PAGING COBRA: If this post makes people fight, please delete it right away. (I posted similar early Sat morning when the writing was on the wall, then thought better of it and deleted)

Facts are facts. Why would anyone fight?

[Xian]

Cribbed form WaPo:

SHUTDOWNS OF MORE THAN 10 DAYS:

PAGING COBRA: If this post makes people fight, please delete it right away. (I posted similar early Sat morning when the writing was on the wall, then thought better of it and deleted)

Facts are facts. Why would anyone fight?

I'm with you OOB. Just D.C. talk and all that, you never know. Wish to bring no disharmony to the board.

How were the keys w/ Mrs. OOB?

[TWT]

SPX:

Daily Hammer candlestick. Despite price has reached the target box delimited by the Fibo. retracements, I remain sceptical that the pullback off the September 19 high has run its course. However we cannot rule out a short-term bounce which should have an upper limit at 1709.67

Short-term EWP:

In my opinion we have two potential patterns:

1. Ending Diagonal. Barring a truncation it needs one more lower low (Caveat: the wave iii of the assumed ED is marginally larger that the wave i)


2. Triangle: We should see an impulsive decline off last Friday´s gap down. The theoretical target is located at 1667

This scenario should conclude the corrective pattern from the September 19 high.

[TWT]

$ES_F (Globex): The thrust following the Triangle

[TWT]

$XLF: Could this down leg be the wave (E) of a Triangle ?

[Out of Bounds]

Cribbed form WaPo:

SHUTDOWNS OF MORE THAN 10 DAYS:

PAGING COBRA: If this post makes people fight, please delete it right away. (I posted similar early Sat morning when the writing was on the wall, then thought better of it and deleted)

Facts are facts. Why would anyone fight?

I'm with you OOB. Just D.C. talk and all that, you never know. Wish to bring no disharmony to the board.

How were the keys w/ Mrs. OOB?

Fantastic. Great food and weather. The pool was sparkling and so was the wine.

[Out of Bounds]

For those of you interested in weather phenomena. here is a picture of a waterspout we saw Saturday.

[Fieldydwb]

Where?