10/22/2013 Live Update

[Mr. T]

"We're never going down again!!!!"

[simpletrader]

“I decided to look back at all nights following times where ES closed at a 50-day day in the day of an employment report.”
“The stats here certainly seem to favor the bears.”
http://overnightedges.com/1691/nights-a ... ment-days/

bear is going to win

[Cobra]

still strong, so looks like lower high is impossible today. here's the updated guess.

[Al_Dente]

“I decided to look back at all nights following times where ES closed at a 50-day day in the day of an employment report.”
“The stats here certainly seem to favor the bears.”
http://overnightedges.com/1691/nights-a ... ment-days/

bear is going to win

his stats are for overnight ES only

[taggard]

[quote="uempel"]Looking at that steep green channel and thinking of all the buying going on - my guess is always that it's either A) machines or B) some huge funds which don't want to tell their investors that they missed out. I can't imagine somebody else playing the long side now without waiting for a correction...

well the dumb money is always last. and here you have the logical sort of up into jan thing getting touted to death. you have the idea that in nov to jan you get 401k retirement money. So some people who maybe would normally be more careful are counting on this end of the year stuff. the whole confluence of opinion out there with (1) they will pass whatever bills at the last second because they have to (2) the fed (even more under yellen) will no way do anything until after the feb date for the new budget etc. and finally it's a fact that spy broke out of the formal bear at whatever say 1575 to 1600. so even on a longer term (certainly not how you have posted) it seems "logical" to get in there.

to me the rough part is to watch this continued fed chatter. one of the first things you learn about TA is that the length of the trend is an issue. the length of time we have believed that the fed will do anything so we can just get long and not even think about entry points is getting fairly mature (esp with the rate of change these days). the problem isn't actually the idea of the fed--it's the idea that everyone is buying into it this late in the belief cycle.

so i guess my take to your near vertical channel lines is that it's a clue. good luck with the trades

[BullBear52x]

Intraday = sell the rip

double top is still possible for bears since MACD is bearish crossed.

[MrMiyagi]

aapl

[taggard]

add on--i have to say people on the board--including my very rare post--seem fairly negative. i have not been reading that much but it seems like the last move up there has been a less positive take than usual on a move of that sort.

[SigmaEcho]

Looking at that steep green channel and thinking of all the buying going on - my guess is always that it's either A) machines or B) some huge funds which don't want to tell their investors that they missed out. I can't imagine somebody else playing the long side now without waiting for a correction...

00.png

wow steep channel.

imo, its always machines

[MrMiyagi]

nflx

[MrMiyagi]

!!!!! POWER HOUR !!!!!

[wayne0708]

100% measured moved for a small and quick short play. Please don't call me crazy

[wayne0708]

100% measured moved for a small and quick short play. Please don't call me crazy

[gappy]

Maybe a long area really short term on crude @ 97.75/ 98.20

for who intends to long crude on a medium term I will wait for 93/94 area ... for information only (I still think crude gonna go below 90)...

Recent divergence world oil/wti. Not sure what to think, Mideast problems vs protectionism of wti. Trade balance pressure vs petrodollar. Something about to give. If things really hit the fan in any of many possible bubbles, I will long FOL.

oil.png

Be long refiners? Check charts for VLO, PSX, etc.

If the market tanks, they will too. Just a waiting game I guess.

refiner.PNG

glty.

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. double top area?.. or just another ascending triangle...

[fehro]

VIX 15m... bear flag?... sitting on support....

[uempel]

Since October 9th market has risen 6.7% Somebody certainly knows the statistics, but to me this seems kind of exceptional, i.e. on the 9th the market was not at some kind of long term low.

[wayne0708]

Since October 9th market has risen 6.7% Somebody certainly knows the statistics, but to me this seems kind of exceptional, i.e. on the 9th the market was not at some kind of long term low.

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Go short for a day or 2 uempel for a short revenge against them bulls

[gappy]

add on--i have to say people on the board--including my very rare post--seem fairly negative. i have not been reading that much but it seems like the last move up there has been a less positive take than usual on a move of that sort.

Maybe just a lot of skepticism sailing into unknown Ponzi new dynamics. QE pump = fed fear, fear of what? Well yeah, political loss of grip, but this agenda, is a little above and beyond. Conspiracy world now.

[Cobra]

we're here. but I admit the original guess is pointless at this stage.