10/26/2013 Weekend Update

[jack black]

US dollar Weekly long long term

I believe that dollar moves will determine stock action in the near term. What your chart is not showing is how dollar and euro are siting at BB on MONTHLY charts. Last time that happened it was end of April 2011 and that triggered major reversals in all assets.

[jack black]

These two manage money and details their thinking. He is not always right but good overview
http://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogspot.ca/

If anyone has favourites aside from Cobra I wouldn't mind hearing about them.

I like Tiho from shortsideoflong, but he's a bit a permabear lately.

[Royal Flush]

Latest NYSE Short Interest Report
Worthy of note:
106% increase in shorts for the short-spy vehicle SH (shorting a short vehicle is a long-spy bet)
163% increase in semiconductor shorts using XSD instead of SMH
53% increase in Russell shorts using IWN instead of IWM
51% increase in UVXY shorts
46% increase in XIV shorts
etc…
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

I cannot understand why there is a "51% increase in UVXY shorts" when the VIX is very close to the level at which it has bottomed over the last 7 months. If you understand it would you please explain it ro me?

[Al_Dente]

I cannot understand why there is a "51% increase in UVXY shorts" when the VIX is very close to the level at which it has bottomed over the last 7 months. If you understand it would you please explain it ro me?

UVXY has gone from 47 to 23 in the last three weeks. The UVXY shorts bet on a VIX decline (and SPY rise) and made 24 points in three weeks, not bad.
They haven’t covered much, suggesting they believe VIX could re-test the low in the 12 zone (or lower) as SPY makes a final push higher. The dream of the spy-bulls is for VIX to decline to 11.04, besting the low of 14 march, which was the last time the VIX actually confirmed the bull market.
With 3x juice the UVXYs will be the first to cover when SPY starts going south.
BUT NOTE: the 46% increase in XIV shorts implied bear-spy…….so…..
[Caveat: the NYSE si report lags by 2 weeks, stale, but it’s the best we’ve got]
Thanks Royal: I know you were looking for a better answer, this is too simple for you, but that’s all I’ve got for now.
[edit: ps: I LOVE your chart]

[chocobee]

Latest NYSE Short Interest Report
Worthy of note:
106% increase in shorts for the short-spy vehicle SH (shorting a short vehicle is a long-spy bet)
163% increase in semiconductor shorts using XSD instead of SMH
53% increase in Russell shorts using IWN instead of IWM
51% increase in UVXY shorts
46% increase in XIV shorts
etc…
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... tml#shortD

I cannot understand why there is a "51% increase in UVXY shorts" when the VIX is very close to the level at which it has bottomed over the last 7 months. If you understand it would you please explain it ro me?

vvishsc.png

The data is as of October 15th

[Royal Flush]

Thanks Dear Al , I think the fact that the si report lags for 2 weeks explains a lot. Many of those shorts could have covered by now.

[stlwater]

My charts

Also interesting all touches of the dashed red trendline occured over weekends... same trendline touches on /ES, over weekends.

Close up

Might explain why so much hedging. based on the market action as it nears rising resistance, seems there are some itchy trigger fingers there. Wouldn't take much to trigger selling me thinks.

[stlwater]

Friday's post:

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1100&p=145825#p145825

Update:

[knock]

could COT data lag behind? I recall the gold COT data is only dated 10/4.

The info this weekend is a little alarming. Smart Money record short, institutional accumulation distribution divergence persists and both AAII and II are very bullish.

The chart below show Smart Money record short, despite all the problem seems gone: No debt ceiling problem anymore and QE seems forever. Why those guy still want hedge?

[stlwater]

Tagged...

Cleaner view

[gappy]

If anyone has favourites aside from Cobra I wouldn't mind hearing about them.[/quote]
http://www.safehaven.com/article/31590/ ... g-term-ewp

gold.PNG

[TWT]

$USDJPY: An impulsive up leg should open the door to more strength ahead

[TWT]

$ES_F (Globex): Last thrust following a Triangle ?

[stlwater]

/ES hits it's rising trendline. Will SPX get its turn?

[TWT]

$ES_F (Globex) maybe one more marginal higher high