11/02/2013 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

II is a little alarming now, too many people are bullish. The sample size is low though.

[Cobra]

AAII is a little too high as well.

[Cobra]

institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming still shows divergence.

[Cobra]

Smart money covered a little bit but still hold large short (meaning the danger isn't over).

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1102&p=146638#p146638

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1109&p=146640#p146640

[KeiZai]

Just a quick sector overview, from what I see I think one more wave up is missing (before some kind of meaningful pullback is possible), I dont see impulsive structure down anywhere atm but I will take closer look on sunday

Here are some simple charts till then

Homebuilders are tricky ones, triangle or topping process?

[DellGriffith]

bb breaches: how to guess the low?

The pattern seems to be price challenges a trendline that can be drawn close to just outside the lower bollinger band. Sometimes it goes way beyond the lower bb. But every one I looked at going back years has challenged one of the trendlines.

[uempel]

DellGriffith, don't let your bearish bias close your eyes: SPX is still above the blue trend line which was pierced two weeks ago. And don't forget that BPSPX has not yet signalled a reversal. Friday at the close odds for more downside next week were roughly 51:49, so far not very attractive for players who want to make money on the long run. Gambling is great, but let's wait for better odds

[uempel]

Just a quick sector overview, from what I see I think one more wave up is missing (before some kind of meaningful pullback is possible), I dont see impulsive structure down anywhere atm but I will take closer look on sunday

Here are some simple charts till then

KeiZai, my charts show the markets slightly above critical levels, but not below BPNYA, BPSPX and aapl too, they all sing the same song. Weakness next week would definitly end the bull party , but at the moment I don't see no bearish signal...

Daily BPNYA histogram

Weekly BPNYA candles

Daily aapl

[DellGriffith]

Thanks for the advice Uempel! Always love the fresh perspective!

[uempel]

Thanks for the advice Uempel! Always love the fresh perspective!

And I don't want you to go broke

[stlwater]

DellGriffith, don't let your bearish bias close your eyes: SPX is still above the blue trend line which was pierced two weeks ago. And don't forget that BPSPX has not yet signalled a reversal. Friday at the close odds for more downside next week were roughly 51:49, so far not very attractive for players who want to make money on the long run. Gambling is great, but let's wait for better odds

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It is what it is.

[DellGriffith]

I suspect "Big Red Candle Day" will arrive on some near-future breakdown on uempel's trendline. Maybe a gap down plus big red candle.

[Al_Dente]

“warm and fuzzy” GS suggests “…that its junior bankers not work on the weekend.”
http://management.fortune.cnn.com/2013/ ... Markets%29

“Wall Street is losing talent to tech companies, many of which offer starting salaries on par with those offered by investment banks.”

[Al_Dente]

I’m looking for a bit more of a short-term pullback.
Then, like it or not, we will be entering the holiday retail buying season.
With gasoline prices down, consumers will have more money to spend (it’s a given; don’t argue this).

This “Librarian” has a math equation that translates the gasoline savings into retail ammunition.
Could one of you math genies please figure this out, and share/post your findings in “easy” English?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1794362 ... view&ifp=0

“When real wages for average consumers are stagnant, economic growth in one sector often has to come from declining sales in another.”

[BullBear52x]

The human animals are born with curiosity, herd mentality is great. to see what are other people do not what they think I think $NYMO or $NAMO are a great tool. Price and patterns are good but how much more on each direction? this is when MO comes in handy for longer term like daily time frame.

A short term will give a cleaner price range.

Longer view as far as sentiments MO is doing a good job.

[user13]

I think this run up turns out to be a big false breakout. Just like 2009 was a false break down. It might coincidence with he exact time of the last bull market too.

[uempel]

DellGriffith, don't let your bearish bias close your eyes: SPX is still above the blue trend line which was pierced two weeks ago. And don't forget that BPSPX has not yet signalled a reversal. Friday at the close odds for more downside next week were roughly 51:49, so far not very attractive for players who want to make money on the long run. Gambling is great, but let's wait for better odds

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It is what it is.

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Of course 1775 was resistance, of course there was a reversal signal last Thursday. But this market is tricky and and momentum looks bullish. The linear chart shows strong support at SPX 1750 (down 0.62% from Friday's close), the log chart shows strong support at SPX 1742 (down 1% from Friday's close). Why open up shorts when market is only 0.6 - 1.0% above support, heh

Long ellipse chart shows that similar top-signals occured in March/July 2011 and May 2013. Those three patterns do not suggest an immediate rush into shorts. And let's not forget that seasonality signals strength.

A switch to shorts makes sense A) If SPX 1740 doesn't hold, B) if SPX doesn't manage to climb back over 1775 in the next few days, C) if Bullish percentages deteriorate further and fall below crucial levels - in that case the market looks bearish

Long term ellipse chart with highlights March/July 2011 and May 2013

[TWT]

$CPCE: The 10dma is displaying a warning