04/05/2014 Weekend Update

[rhight]

An addendum to the comments I made on fehro's chart. This chart is using OBV, a rather simple volume indicator, but others are showing a similar divergence. Comments have been added comparing the current period to the January top. This of course does not mean a reversal is imminent, the longer this game can be played, and the more distribution seen at high prices, may mean a greater correction down the road.

[xfradnex]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/holder-u- ... oAvkuTmYlQ. Look who was running the Trade commission and what he is doing now. Maybe some of his buddies are still there.

[user13]

I dont get all the hate vs HFT all of a sudden....maybe the big boys are tired of it...

[user13]

I don't usually have time to get to the board during the day and usually leave posting til the weekend.
I posted this on Wednesday after the close:
---------
"The video is my reasons why this could possibly be a high
120 TD from Oct low
+ 52.25 points on the last swing same as 7 March
4 TD on the last swing same as 7 March
so perhaps a 4 to 6 TD down and a 42-45 pt swing down.
http://screencast.com/t/Xfuzo9zPk3SA
GLTA"
-----------
So Friday's fall was gratifying for me.
(didn't make me money as I'm snowed under with taxes and have to put trading on hold - sigh.)

Swings are moves =>30pts. You can see that they are 4 to 5 trading days TD apart. Though Friday is 6TD Thursday (day 121) is really the high =5TD.
(Friday was both a swing high and low.)

Wednesday was 120 TD from 9 Oct with a 2 day orb give Mon-Fri
Fri was Venus trine Pluto (A trine is 120 degrees.)

good stuff...is that in an excel sheet?

[DellGriffith]

Spitballing here...

Still keeping in the back of my mind that a test of the 200 dma on daily SPY in the weeks ahead will get a lot of people screaming about a head and shoulders top dating back to about the first of the year. Its also interesting that gold is about 4 months more advanced into establishing its own inverse H&S.

The next couple of weeks could be where gold is about to rally hard to challenge the neckline while at the same time SPY drops big the 200 dma and then bottoms there to begin work on its second shoulder. Friday could be just the beginning of this. The setup seems good enough for me to monitor closely.

[pezhead9000]

World GDP vs Equity Prices

[pezhead9000]

Warning signs XLY vs XLP
"The S&P 500 just printed a fresh all-time closing high this past week, but the relationship between consumer stocks sent a very strong message to those watching. Money over the past 4-5 weeks has shifted considerably towards the safer consumer staples (XLP) group"

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatch ... ng-up.html

[DellGriffith]

[flumanchu]

I've done a little fine tuning for the POMO projections.

Here's the SPX projection based on POMO for the rest of the month:

Day date - - - - PROJECTION - - - - - - High Proj
Tue 4/1 - - - - 1858 - - - - - - 1888
Wed 4/2 - - - - 1851.5 - - - - - - 1881.5
Thu 4/3 - - - - 1858.5 - - - - - - 1888.5
Fri 4/4 - - - - 1852 - - - - - - 1882
Mon 4/7 - - - - 1834 - - - - - - 1864
Tue 4/8 - - - - 1827.5 - - - - - - 1857.5
Wed 4/9 - - - - 1819.5 - - - - - - 1849.5
Thu 4/10 - - - - 1813 - - - - - - 1843
Fri 4/11 - - - - 1830 - - - - - - 1860
Mon 4/14 - - - - 1837 - - - - - - 1867
Tue 4/15 - - - - 1830.5 - - - - - - 1860.5
Wed 4/16 - - - - 1835 - - - - - - 1865
Thu 4/17 - - - - 1828.5 - - - - - - 1858.5
Fri Good Friday
Mon 4/21 - - - - 1810.5 - - - - - - 1840.5
Tue 4/22 - - - - 1832.5 - - - - - - 1862.5
Wed 4/23 - - - - 1826 - - - - - - 1856
Thu 4/24 - - - - 1833 - - - - - - 1863
Fri 4/25 - - - - 1822 - - - - - - 1852
Mon 4/28 - - - - 1815.5 - - - - - - 1845.5
Tue 4/29 - - - - 1820 - - - - - - 1850
Wed 4/30 - - - - 1827 - - - - - - 1857

Above - the High Projection is basically 30 points more than the projected value - just based on observations, where I think the Primary Dealers are using POMO money from future days to support the market (they can also hold money back if they need to for a future day).

Notice the high projection for Monday is 1864 - near where we are today.
However, the high on Thu (4/10) is 1843 and a low of 1813. I had projected 1820 for the middle of this coming week. My guess is from Monday to Thursday this week the market will start falling pretty much right out of the gate, and then bottoming around Wed / Thur.

End of the month projection is still 1790 for April - based on POMO.

The number above is different (1827) because it's based on the Max Amount available each day, which totaled is more than 30 billion.

If the ECB does not come thru with QE and the Fed Tapers again, the market will be going down quite considerably this summer...

POMO - the only thing holding this market up.

.

[tsf]

I've done a little fine tuning for the POMO projections.

Here's the SPX projection based on POMO for the rest of the month:

Day date - - - - PROJECTION - - - - - - High Proj
Tue 4/1 - - - - 1858 - - - - - - 1888
Wed 4/2 - - - - 1851.5 - - - - - - 1881.5
Thu 4/3 - - - - 1858.5 - - - - - - 1888.5
Fri 4/4 - - - - 1852 - - - - - - 1882
Mon 4/7 - - - - 1834 - - - - - - 1864
Tue 4/8 - - - - 1827.5 - - - - - - 1857.5
Wed 4/9 - - - - 1819.5 - - - - - - 1849.5
Thu 4/10 - - - - 1813 - - - - - - 1843
Fri 4/11 - - - - 1830 - - - - - - 1860
Mon 4/14 - - - - 1837 - - - - - - 1867
Tue 4/15 - - - - 1830.5 - - - - - - 1860.5
Wed 4/16 - - - - 1835 - - - - - - 1865
Thu 4/17 - - - - 1828.5 - - - - - - 1858.5
Fri Good Friday
Mon 4/21 - - - - 1810.5 - - - - - - 1840.5
Tue 4/22 - - - - 1832.5 - - - - - - 1862.5
Wed 4/23 - - - - 1826 - - - - - - 1856
Thu 4/24 - - - - 1833 - - - - - - 1863
Fri 4/25 - - - - 1822 - - - - - - 1852
Mon 4/28 - - - - 1815.5 - - - - - - 1845.5
Tue 4/29 - - - - 1820 - - - - - - 1850
Wed 4/30 - - - - 1827 - - - - - - 1857

Above - the High Projection is basically 30 points more than the projected value - just based on observations, where I think the Primary Dealers are using POMO money from future days to support the market (they can also hold money back if they need to for a future day).

Notice the high projection for Monday is 1864 - near where we are today.
However, the high on Thu (4/10) is 1843 and a low of 1813. I had projected 1820 for the middle of this coming week. My guess is from Monday to Thursday this week the market will start falling pretty much right out of the gate, and then bottoming around Wed / Thur.

End of the month projection is still 1790 for April - based on POMO.

The number above is different (1827) because it's based on the Max Amount available each day, which totaled is more than 30 billion.

If the ECB does not come thru with QE and the Fed Tapers again, the market will be going down quite considerably this summer...

POMO - the only thing holding this market up.

.

Thank you very much, flumanchu. Your direction forecasts have been pretty good so far.

[daytradingES]

I've done a little fine tuning for the POMO projections.

Here's the SPX projection based on POMO for the rest of the month:

Day date - - - - PROJECTION - - - - - - High Proj
Tue 4/1 - - - - 1858 - - - - - - 1888
Wed 4/2 - - - - 1851.5 - - - - - - 1881.5
Thu 4/3 - - - - 1858.5 - - - - - - 1888.5
Fri 4/4 - - - - 1852 - - - - - - 1882
Mon 4/7 - - - - 1834 - - - - - - 1864
Tue 4/8 - - - - 1827.5 - - - - - - 1857.5
Wed 4/9 - - - - 1819.5 - - - - - - 1849.5
Thu 4/10 - - - - 1813 - - - - - - 1843
Fri 4/11 - - - - 1830 - - - - - - 1860
Mon 4/14 - - - - 1837 - - - - - - 1867
Tue 4/15 - - - - 1830.5 - - - - - - 1860.5
Wed 4/16 - - - - 1835 - - - - - - 1865
Thu 4/17 - - - - 1828.5 - - - - - - 1858.5
Fri Good Friday
Mon 4/21 - - - - 1810.5 - - - - - - 1840.5
Tue 4/22 - - - - 1832.5 - - - - - - 1862.5
Wed 4/23 - - - - 1826 - - - - - - 1856
Thu 4/24 - - - - 1833 - - - - - - 1863
Fri 4/25 - - - - 1822 - - - - - - 1852
Mon 4/28 - - - - 1815.5 - - - - - - 1845.5
Tue 4/29 - - - - 1820 - - - - - - 1850
Wed 4/30 - - - - 1827 - - - - - - 1857

Above - the High Projection is basically 30 points more than the projected value - just based on observations, where I think the Primary Dealers are using POMO money from future days to support the market (they can also hold money back if they need to for a future day).

Notice the high projection for Monday is 1864 - near where we are today.
However, the high on Thu (4/10) is 1843 and a low of 1813. I had projected 1820 for the middle of this coming week. My guess is from Monday to Thursday this week the market will start falling pretty much right out of the gate, and then bottoming around Wed / Thur.

End of the month projection is still 1790 for April - based on POMO.

The number above is different (1827) because it's based on the Max Amount available each day, which totaled is more than 30 billion.

If the ECB does not come thru with QE and the Fed Tapers again, the market will be going down quite considerably this summer...

POMO - the only thing holding this market up.

.

1. Is the 1827 if they use all the money each day and 1790 what you expect it to be based on what you expect them to use?

2. If yes to #1 and if the market goes to 1790 by end of April, would that mean they could ramp it back to 1827 by using accumulated POMO money?

Thanks.

(Also thanks for sharing - its interesting to see another way to look at things. Lots of interesting stuff on this board.)

[flumanchu]

The POMO schedule list a range of how much they expect to purchase on a particular day. For example:

Thu, Apr 3, 2014 Fri, Apr 4, 2014 $0.90 - $1.15 billion

To calculate the projection, I use the max amount, so for the day above that would be 1.15 billion. If you add up all the max amounts, it comes to 33.3 billion, which is more than the $30 billion they scheduled for the month. So, some days are really more and some days are less, in the end the total for the month is supposed to be $30 billion, but I have no idea at this point the exact amounts. I might have to see if I can get that info and incorporate it into the projection.

Anyways, End of the month should be right around 1790. From what I've seen, they can always borrow from future days to ramp it up unexpectantly. However, it all averages out in the end and the index come back down closer to the projected amount. Case in point, I projected 1852 for this past Friday since the schedule came out, and really didn't think we'd get close based on how high they were holding it. However, eventually it has to normalize and the indexes dropped back closer to the Projected Amount. Like I said, Monday's top amount is 1864 - The TRUE projection amount is 1834 - it can always go lower than the TRUE projection amount but eventually finds equilibrium around that number. So, Monday they could hold it around 1860, but if they do, a drop will be coming to equalize at get it down closer to the projected amount.

Hope that makes sense.

.

[daytradingES]

The POMO schedule list a range of how much they expect to purchase on a particular day. For example:

Thu, Apr 3, 2014 Fri, Apr 4, 2014 $0.90 - $1.15 billion

To calculate the projection, I use the max amount, so for the day above that would be 1.15 billion. If you add up all the max amounts, it comes to 33.3 billion, which is more than the $30 billion they scheduled for the month. So, some days are really more and some days are less, in the end the total for the month is supposed to be $30 billion, but I have no idea at this point the exact amounts. I might have to see if I can get that info and incorporate it into the projection.

Anyways, End of the month should be right around 1790. From what I've seen, they can always borrow from future days to ramp it up unexpectantly. However, it all averages out in the end and the index come back down closer to the projected amount. Case in point, I projected 1852 for this past Friday since the schedule came out, and really didn't think we'd get close based on how high they were holding it. However, eventually it has to normalize and the indexes dropped back closer to the Projected Amount. Like I said, Monday's top amount is 1864 - The TRUE projection amount is 1834 - it can always go lower than the TRUE projection amount but eventually finds equilibrium around that number. So, Monday they could hold it around 1860, but if they do, a drop will be coming to equalize at get it down closer to the projected amount.

Hope that makes sense.

.

Thanks. So to get to 1790 that would mean that there is a necessary amount each day to "hold it in the air" and that they POMO projected amounts are less than that - is that correct?

[daytradingES]

Here a little something on 20 day price channel.

I'm not sure if I can draw a conclusion but I think that the high% in the range would have to get to 37% or less (1860.75)
and the low to 0% (1834.00) before it will stop falling? ES numbers

[pezhead9000]

COTS Timer - Commercial hedgers are S&P Bearish
"Friday's COT data shows the commercials at 1.32 standard deviations below my moving average in their net position as a percentage of total open interest."

http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/2014/04/c ... avily.html

[pezhead9000]

Now, for something different: Point and Figure - Wyckoff Method
"Again, heres where we watch volume. If a move shows volume, its typical that it is the beginning of something to change, if this is occurring during a decline. The key here is simply to watch the amount of volume. Any change from prior volumes during the same time period is a key something is up. If the volume decreases, it merely indicates that selling is now drying up, and not really even wanted at the lower price. Volume increases as the price of the option goes up, as more are willing now to pay up."

[flrtrader]

Now, for something different: Point and Figure - Wyckoff Method
"Again, heres where we watch volume. If a move shows volume, its typical that it is the beginning of something to change, if this is occurring during a decline. The key here is simply to watch the amount of volume. Any change from prior volumes during the same time period is a key something is up. If the volume decreases, it merely indicates that selling is now drying up, and not really even wanted at the lower price. Volume increases as the price of the option goes up, as more are willing now to pay up."

Pez,

Im not making heads or tail from your chart. But Im not a pnf guy. Might you share your TA? I think reading your comments you see 184 in the near future?

Thanks

[flumanchu]

The POMO schedule list a range of how much they expect to purchase on a particular day. For example:

Thu, Apr 3, 2014 Fri, Apr 4, 2014 $0.90 - $1.15 billion

To calculate the projection, I use the max amount, so for the day above that would be 1.15 billion. If you add up all the max amounts, it comes to 33.3 billion, which is more than the $30 billion they scheduled for the month. So, some days are really more and some days are less, in the end the total for the month is supposed to be $30 billion, but I have no idea at this point the exact amounts. I might have to see if I can get that info and incorporate it into the projection.

Anyways, End of the month should be right around 1790. From what I've seen, they can always borrow from future days to ramp it up unexpectantly. However, it all averages out in the end and the index come back down closer to the projected amount. Case in point, I projected 1852 for this past Friday since the schedule came out, and really didn't think we'd get close based on how high they were holding it. However, eventually it has to normalize and the indexes dropped back closer to the Projected Amount. Like I said, Monday's top amount is 1864 - The TRUE projection amount is 1834 - it can always go lower than the TRUE projection amount but eventually finds equilibrium around that number. So, Monday they could hold it around 1860, but if they do, a drop will be coming to equalize at get it down closer to the projected amount.

Hope that makes sense.

.

Thanks. So to get to 1790 that would mean that there is a necessary amount each day to "hold it in the air" and that they POMO projected amounts are less than that - is that correct?

The 1790 End of April was based solely on $30 billion POMO for the month. I've readjusted the projection based on an Average for the POMO each day which gets it very close to the $30 Billion (appr 29.8 billion). Here's the POMO Projection for April based on the Average POMO / day:

PROJECTION BASED ON AVG POMO / DAY
-------------------------------------------------
Day date = = = = = = PROJECTION = = = = = = High Proj
Mon 31-Mar
Tue 4/1 = = = = = = 1858 = = = = = = 1888
Wed 4/2 = = = = = = 1850 = = = = = = 1880
Thu 4/3 = = = = = = 1855 = = = = = = 1885
Fri 4/4 = = = = = = 1847 = = = = = = 1877
Mon 4/7 = = = = = = 1829 = = = = = = 1859
Tue 4/8 = = = = = = 1821 = = = = = = 1851
Wed 4/9 = = = = = = 1812 = = = = = = 1842
Thu 4/10 = = = = = = 1804 = = = = = = 1834
Fri 4/11 = = = = = = 1818 = = = = = = 1848
Mon 4/14 = = = = = = 1822 = = = = = = 1852
Tue 4/15 = = = = = = 1814 = = = = = = 1844
Wed 4/16 = = = = = = 1816 = = = = = = 1846
Thu 4/17 = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Fri Good Friday= = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Mon 4/21 = = = = = = 1791 = = = = = = 1821
Tue 4/22 = = = = = = 1809 = = = = = = 1839
Wed 4/23 = = = = = = 1801 = = = = = = 1831
Thu 4/24 = = = = = = 1806 = = = = = = 1836
Fri 4/25 = = = = = = 1793 = = = = = = 1823
Mon 4/28 = = = = = = 1786 = = = = = = 1816
Tue 4/29 = = = = = = 1788 = = = = = = 1818
Wed 4/30 = = = = = = 1792 = = = = = = 1822

You can see this gets it pretty close to the 1790 figure (1792 instead). So, the PROJECTION for Monday is 1829. However, they could keep it up / hold it to around 1859 (the high projection) - however, if they do hold it up at 1859, they are borrowing POMO from future days and eventually they run out of money and the market falls since the cash is not there to support it. If they held it to 1859 on Mondy, it would fall harder the next few days as there's already less POMO to support the market (projection is falling) and they've already used the money from those days. So, for example, if they held it at 1859, a more dramatic fall would take place as market needs to get to the PROJECTION number - say 1804 on Thursday.

Please remember, these are all just observations. However, as much as I've looked at this, it just seems to work out over a few days to a week eventually.

.

[user13]

I am guessing this is why they let HFT go public, they are focusing on dark pools now...

"But whether or not high-speed trading is sinister, revenues for these firms have been declining for years: in 2013, they were about $1 billion, after peaking at around $5 billion in 2009, according to estimates by Rosenblatt Securities. If, as Lewis says, these traders are doing nothing more than ripping off the rest of the market, it's a shrinking problem."

http://news.yahoo.com/dark-markets-may- ... 0AXubQtDMD

[pezhead9000]

Now, for something different: Point and Figure - Wyckoff Method
"Again, heres where we watch volume. If a move shows volume, its typical that it is the beginning of something to change, if this is occurring during a decline. The key here is simply to watch the amount of volume. Any change from prior volumes during the same time period is a key something is up. If the volume decreases, it merely indicates that selling is now drying up, and not really even wanted at the lower price. Volume increases as the price of the option goes up, as more are willing now to pay up."

Pez,

Im not making heads or tail from your chart. But Im not a pnf guy. Might you share your TA? I think reading your comments you see 184 in the near future?

Thanks

PnF basics
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... pnf_basics

Wyckoff Method
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... rket_analy