07/19/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more distribution than accumulation but it doesn't reflect today's huge up, so maybe after day it's more accumulation, but still we're still pretty much at the all time high, so with distribution close to accumulation certainly is not a very good sign. I read it as a minor problem though.

inst b sella.png (15.03 KiB) Viewed 3362 times

Smart money shorted a little bit, nothing bad yet, so still more up?

I see nothing on AAII. More bulls but I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now it's far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1362&p=166965#p166965

[Cobra]

Preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&p=166967#p166967

[merryme]

Two BULLISH reversal candlestick patterns noted by Tom Bulkowski regarding: GLD

1) Hook Reversal http://thepatternsite.com/HRD.html

2) Open-Close Reversal: http://thepatternsite.com/HRD.html

[tsf]

I believe that Harapa is still a board member of Cobra's excellent forum. I hope it's ok to provide this info here.
Harapa has done his weekend update of model signals during his vacation.
I've found some of Harapa's signals of value, so I put together a summary for my own use:

Updated after July 18 close

Short-Term
Real-Time Momentum for ES: Neutral_Sell ES
VIX Term Structure for SPY: Bullish for SPY
Short-Term Trading setup for SPY: Long SPY

Intermediate
Models Composite for SPY: Long SPY
Bull Bear Model for SPY: Long SPY (all arrows up and green)
Volatility Derived Model for SPY: Exit Long SPY
Credit Dynamics Model for SPY: Long SPY

Trading Tools
Predict direction of SP500: Hourly and Daily Bearish for SPY
DASH BOARD Long-Term (daily): 80% Long SPY
DASH BOARD Swing (hourly): in Cash
DASH BOARD Short-Term (5-min): Long SPY
Market Trend Spotter with $TICK: Sell SPY
$TRIN as Predictor of stock market direction: Buy mode (all arrows up and green)


GLTA and pray for more calm and peace in the world.

[fehro]

$GOLD daily.. held 50d.. didn't quite tag 200d.. seems to be holding cyan downtrend… still in between… needs to break up over pink neckline of a invs H&S of sorts.. and confirm… otherwise could be in a descending pink triangle. Not a pretty weekly candle, thin blue triangle on the weekly more of a valid pattern than the possible H&S. $GOLD weekly/montlhy

[fehro]

Weekly/Daily Treasuries CHART - FVX 5yr (red), TNX 10yr (yellow), TYX 30yr(green) SPX.. divergence forming.. 30yr, 10yr heading down as 5 yr heading up

[daytradingES]

this past week
ES


explanation of chart
http://screencast.com/t/267UyW4ulJq

[fehro]

http://www.forex-tribe.com/Learn-About- ... tterns.php a cheat sheet of sorts of chart patterns

[flrtrader]

 This week's low is a Gann 90 degrees in time from the 4/15 low, so it is interesting that we are seeing the strongest NYSE breadth intraday today since the day after the 4/15 low.

Many readings are just as we were coming out of the Jan/Feb lows, Its my thoughs we just put in a good test of the ES 1950 level and as an auction we ran out of sellers. The bears had their best opportunity that they've had in a while. This week is the tell I have many indicators that will give very reliable buy signals with as little as 1% moves up.

Either we trade sideways a few days then begin a strong rally or we rally right out of the gate on monday. The Russian problem is the only wildcard, if things don't escalate there bulls are in charge.

I am back to work full time regular job so iits hard for me to post thru the week.

last week I was long from 1962 going into thursday got stopped out at 1972 ES and reentered at 1958 ES playing the double bottom, missed that but was relieved when the market closed and stopped the panic.

Trading spy weeklys and hold 198's 

[daytradingES]

http://www.forex-tribe.com/Learn-About- ... tterns.php a cheat sheet of sorts of chart patterns

Thanks for the link

I went to one link ascending broading wedge and I'm wondering if they have this correct
"progressive reduction in the amplitude of the waves".
looks like the waves are increasing in amplitude, noh?

[marty]

 This week's low is a Gann 90 degrees in time from the 4/15 low, so it is interesting that we are seeing the strongest NYSE breadth intraday today since the day after the 4/15 low.

Many readings are just as we were coming out of the Jan/Feb lows, Its my thoughs we just put in a good test of the ES 1950 level and as an auction we ran out of sellers. The bears had their best opportunity that they've had in a while. This week is the tell I have many indicators that will give very reliable buy signals with as little as 1% moves up.

Either we trade sideways a few days then begin a strong rally or we rally right out of the gate on monday. The Russian problem is the only wildcard, if things don't escalate there bulls are in charge.

I am back to work full time regular job so iits hard for me to post thru the week.

last week I was long from 1962 going into thursday got stopped out at 1972 ES and reentered at 1958 ES playing the double bottom, missed that but was relieved when the market closed and stopped the panic
Trading spy weeklys and hold 198's 

Do you see any connections to this ?
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/1 ... coming-up/

[quientuves]

And what if institucionals decide to return to the stockmarkets???

[Out of Bounds]

Here you go:
http://www.worldtimezone.com/markets12.php
A nice map to let you figure out when the markets open and close.

[gappy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I04ahVpyT-g

a.PNG

b.PNG

Vote Cobra. glta

[fehro]

Here you go:
http://www.worldtimezone.com/markets12.php
A nice map to let you figure out when the markets open and close.

cool! thanks!

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY bollinger bands are wound extremely tight now. BB width has fallen to 1.9. We're primed for a big move either up or down now. The entire bollinger band is above the 50 dma now but daily SPY has both dropped (Aug 15th, 2013) and rallied (Dec 18th, 2013) from that position with tight BBs. MFI is in a downtrend but its also verging on breaking out to the upside, so that doesn't tell me the direction.

It seems (as always) that the best strategy is to sit tight and wait for daily SPY to break either up or down, and then ride that new trend as it emerges.