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Not sure I'd ever say the market is "supposed" to do anything. It's random walk behavior so at any given moment there is a natural 50/50 chance.Cobra wrote:
I see nothing wrong. It might be a rising wedge but nowadays who cares about wedge, it's not a bearish pattern most of the time. today suppose to down but if up then the old day bulls are back, let's see.
At any given day, market tends to have higher percentage going up than down as cobra's daily stats show. 53% vs 47%.cletus wrote:Not sure I'd ever say the market is "supposed" to do anything. It's random walk behavior so at any given moment there is a natural 50/50 chance.Cobra wrote:
I see nothing wrong. It might be a rising wedge but nowadays who cares about wedge, it's not a bearish pattern most of the time. today suppose to down but if up then the old day bulls are back, let's see.
From Investopedia
Random walk theory gained popularity in 1973 when Burton Malkiel wrote "A Random Walk Down Wall Street", a book that is now regarded as an investment classic. Random walk is a stock market theory that states that the past movement or direction of the price of a stock or overall market cannot be used to predict its future movement. Originally examined by Maurice Kendall in 1953, the theory states that stock price fluctuations are independent of each other and have the same probability distribution, but that over a period of time, prices maintain an upward trend.
In short, random walk says that stocks take a random and unpredictable path. The chance of a stock's future price going up is the same as it going down. A follower of random walk believes it is impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk. In his book, Malkiel preaches that both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are largely a waste of time and are still unproven in outperforming the markets.
Malkiel constantly states that a long-term buy-and-hold strategy is the best and that individuals should not attempt to time the markets. Attempts based on technical, fundamental, or any other analysis are futile. He backs this up with statistics showing that most mutual funds fail to beat benchmark averages like the S&P 500.
Random walk theory is pure bunk. Were it true, the market would not go up or down in the longer term and everything would be a zero sum game.JFR wrote:If trends exist, then it is not random.