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02/28/2015 Weekend Update
02/28/2015 Weekend Update
The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation than distribution. The accumulation is falling faster than distribution though so it's just a little bit negative divergence.
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
Summary of the week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1588&p=185660#p185660
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1588&p=185660#p185660
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
T2 .. 3 or 4 indicators on the possible verge of indicating a direction change
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
preview of the next week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&p=185665#p185665
viewtopic.php?f=10&p=185665#p185665
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Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE.
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
Econ Info: Corporate profits % chg from previous year. We have 4wks till 4Q14 is reported. I read this as barely growing.
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgra ... sion_date=
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgra ... sion_date=
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
China announces rate cut
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ree-months
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ree-months
Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
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- selling into strength
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- buying on weakness
Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
SWING
First pullback target 208.97 (the December 29 high) to 208.73 (the Feb 20 low)
If we fail there, then the 38% retracement and back-test of the breakout area is at about 207
SPX returns during the QE Era
Source: Bianco Research via Ritholtz
First pullback target 208.97 (the December 29 high) to 208.73 (the Feb 20 low)
If we fail there, then the 38% retracement and back-test of the breakout area is at about 207
Source: Bianco Research via Ritholtz
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
Extended Trading Hours in VIX Options begins tomorrow
http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2015/02/2 ... 1366902549
http://www.cboeoptionshub.com/2015/02/2 ... 1366902549
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
IMHO - I don't see any immediate fear nor divergences
Spy vs NYSE Composite up/down volume - 9dSMA is soft
Skew - doesn't show any extremes
Spy vs NYSE Composite up/down volume - 9dSMA is soft
Skew - doesn't show any extremes
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- SPY vs. Nyse composite up/down volume (9day SMA)
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- SPX vs Skew
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
Biggest concern is forward earnings.
Factset on Earnings
Key Metrics
+ Earnings Scorecard: Of the 485 companies that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2014, 76% have
reported earnings above the mean estimate and 59% have reported sales above the mean estimate.
+ Earnings Growth: The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2014 is 3.7%. The Health Care and
Telecom Services sectors are reporting the highest growth in earnings for the quarter, while the
Energy sector is reporting the largest decline in earnings for the quarter.
+ Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2014 was 1.7%.
Seven sectors have higher growth rates today (compared to December 31) due to upside earnings
surprises, led by the Information Technology and Health Care sectors.
+ Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2015, 81 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 15 companies
have issued positive EPS guidance.
+ Valuation: The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 17.2. This P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s
closing price (2110.74) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($122.73).
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDF ... ht_2.27.15
Factset on Earnings
Key Metrics
+ Earnings Scorecard: Of the 485 companies that have reported earnings to date for Q4 2014, 76% have
reported earnings above the mean estimate and 59% have reported sales above the mean estimate.
+ Earnings Growth: The blended earnings growth rate for Q4 2014 is 3.7%. The Health Care and
Telecom Services sectors are reporting the highest growth in earnings for the quarter, while the
Energy sector is reporting the largest decline in earnings for the quarter.
+ Earnings Revisions: On December 31, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2014 was 1.7%.
Seven sectors have higher growth rates today (compared to December 31) due to upside earnings
surprises, led by the Information Technology and Health Care sectors.
+ Earnings Guidance: For Q1 2015, 81 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 15 companies
have issued positive EPS guidance.
+ Valuation: The current 12-month forward P/E ratio is 17.2. This P/E ratio is based on Thursday’s
closing price (2110.74) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($122.73).
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDF ... ht_2.27.15
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pezhead9000
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
http://www.businessinsider.com/february ... rns-2015-3
Friday's -0.30% closing loss trimmed the February monthly gain to a whopping 5.49%, the biggest monthly gain since October of 2011, 40 months ago, when the index rose 10.77%.
Friday's -0.30% closing loss trimmed the February monthly gain to a whopping 5.49%, the biggest monthly gain since October of 2011, 40 months ago, when the index rose 10.77%.
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DellGriffith
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Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
In recent times (from Jan 2014 forward) the day after MFI comes off the overbot conditions, we get a pretty big jump, sometimes a gap up immediately. It happened again on friday, maybe target is SPY 215 this week? We also have an inverse head and shoulders on the SPY 5 minute chart.
bearish as of SPY 406 on 2/17/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
currently: end bearish as of SPY 406 on 3/6/23
Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
Thoughts to help me clarify AAPL next week:
I think I'd said on Friday fruit needed something.... another invite. It didn't get it and closed the day ugly. And so far, as of Sunday, there's nothing. No New York Times piece about a future invisible space ship they're working on or anything stupid shit like that— and Wall Street loves stupid shit.
NEXT Monday's watch event, 3/8/15, is something that *everyone* knows the stock is going to run up into and sell off afterward. Get it? EVERYONE? Not good.
Elsewhere: Samsung dropped their latest iPhone knock-off. (Hey look! It's not made of plastic anymore! We rule!) Should be good for CNBC et al to book talking heads to prattle about how the iPhone 6 juggernaut is simply a "blip" on AAPL's way to irrelevance. (And who knows? Maybe it is. But it sure the hell ain't gonna be a bunch of knock-off artists like Samsung that brings 'em down.)
60 and 30 min timeframes closed at support Friday— you could try to rationalize that "it held". I wouldn't.Those timeframes look not great. *Looks* to be heading to $127, where it will try for double bottom. After that, $125
No reason for me to own right now. This pullback seems reasonable given the 12% run since Jan earnings and the overbought readings. Protect profits. Likely that better entries await. If it rockets up Monday, hurray! It needs to get above $130-$130.30 to know the shit's for real— Don't hold your breath. Stay cool and let price come to you.
Bear: $127, then $125; Bull: $130-$130.30ish, then $131.
I think I'd said on Friday fruit needed something.... another invite. It didn't get it and closed the day ugly. And so far, as of Sunday, there's nothing. No New York Times piece about a future invisible space ship they're working on or anything stupid shit like that— and Wall Street loves stupid shit.
NEXT Monday's watch event, 3/8/15, is something that *everyone* knows the stock is going to run up into and sell off afterward. Get it? EVERYONE? Not good.
Elsewhere: Samsung dropped their latest iPhone knock-off. (Hey look! It's not made of plastic anymore! We rule!) Should be good for CNBC et al to book talking heads to prattle about how the iPhone 6 juggernaut is simply a "blip" on AAPL's way to irrelevance. (And who knows? Maybe it is. But it sure the hell ain't gonna be a bunch of knock-off artists like Samsung that brings 'em down.)
60 and 30 min timeframes closed at support Friday— you could try to rationalize that "it held". I wouldn't.Those timeframes look not great. *Looks* to be heading to $127, where it will try for double bottom. After that, $125
No reason for me to own right now. This pullback seems reasonable given the 12% run since Jan earnings and the overbought readings. Protect profits. Likely that better entries await. If it rockets up Monday, hurray! It needs to get above $130-$130.30 to know the shit's for real— Don't hold your breath. Stay cool and let price come to you.
Bear: $127, then $125; Bull: $130-$130.30ish, then $131.
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BullBear52x
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- Joined: Tue Feb 22, 2011 3:47 pm
Re: 02/28/2015 Weekend Update
we are at the start line not the finish line.
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My comments are for entertainment/educational purpose only. NOT a trade advice.