04/11/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Now we know institutions do accumulate while the market was pulling back (remember the last 2 weeks when the market was pulling back, the chart shows more accumulation than distribution?). The chart below is from stocktiming, it does tell us the truth.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks.
Good week.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1630&p=188925#p188925

[Al_Dente]

this week:

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1637&p=188928#p188928

[Al_Dente]

AAPL:
1) Top panel: The boring default MACD, does a nice signaling job for medium-term folks (keyed to the solid red/green vertical lines).
It issued five signals in seven months; actually, the current buy signal is still pending.

2) Third panel up from the bottom: Bolinger %B does a nice job of finding interim bottoms (keyed to the dashed-green-vertical lines).

3) Second panel up from the bottom: “AAPL relative to SPY.”
When AAPL outperforms SPY it gets a flood of money, conversely, when AAPL starts underperforming SPY, folks go elsewhere. Currently it is pretty flat.

4) Bottom panel: Given that AAPL now comprises 3.9% of SPY and 14.4% of QQQ and 4.7% of the dow, you may be interested in that 7-month
percentage-performance comparison.

[DellGriffith]

Consecutive trading days without hitting / approaching upper bb
ALL of SPY history

33 days from Oct - Dec 2012
33 days from Apr - June 2010
34 days from May - June 2006
35 days from Aug - Oct 2002 (dot com bust)
36 days from July - Aug 2011 (end of QE2 and before Operation Twist)
36 days from Feb - Apr 2015 (end of QE3 & worry over rate hikes)
37 days from Oct - dec 2007 (recession officially began in dec 2007)
39 days from May - June 2011 (end of QE2)
39 days from Sept - Oct 2000 (dot com bust)
39 days from Jan - Mar 2003 (dot com bust)
40 days from Dec 2014 - Feb 2015 (end of QE3)(longest streak in past 7 years)
42 days from Aug - Oct 1999 (a series of fed rate hikes to slow economy)
42 days from Aug - Oct 2001 (dot com bust)
43 days from July - Sept 1998 (asian flu)(russian economic crisis)

-- anything 45+ days happened during an economic bust --

45 days from Feb - Apr 2001 (dot com bust)
46 days from Mar - May 2002 (dot com bust)
48 days from Jan - Mar 2000 (dot com bust)
48 days from May - July 2008 (credit bubble bust)
49 days from Dec 2007- Feb 2008 (credit bubble bust)
60 days from May - Aug 2002 (dot com bust)
82 days from Sept - Dec 2008 (credit bubble bust)



We came very very close to the upper bb on friday, and I will call that a hit.

At 36 days, the streak that just ended is tied for 16th all-time. Both streaks for 2015 are bolded in the list.

By virtue of ending the streak, we are now free to see a major correction occur at any time. With no active QE currently at work, it is surely possible.

[Al_Dente]

Friday XIV completed a “bearish 3 gaps up” candle pattern.
So the candle rules are: stay long until this pattern is confirmed, which would be if/when price crosses below the midpoint of Friday’s candle (about $39.17, see the green line/arrow).

[candlesticker.com]

[DellGriffith]

when SPY was down near the lower bb, stock market internet forums were fretting about a large drop. now that SPY is near the upper bb, im reading proclamations of a big rally due. as usual, posters are selling low and buying high.

[fehro]

INDEX daily/weeklies candles

[fehro]

Industry weekly %

[fehro]

T2

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

SPX weekly

[fehro]

Weekly SPX

[Al_Dente]

Mon – Apr 13 - quiet
Tue - Apr 14 - 08:30 - Retail Sales
Tue - Apr 14 - 08:30 - Producer Price Index (PPI)
Tuesday Earnings reports: CCX, INTC, JNJ, JPM, WFC and others

Wed - Apr 15 - 07:00 - MBA Mortgage Index
Wed - Apr 15 - 08:30 - Empire State Manufacturing
Wed - Apr 15 - 09:15 - Industrial Production
Wed - Apr 15 - 10:00 - NAHB Housing Market Index
Wed - Apr 15 - 10:30 - Oil Inventories
Wed - Apr 15 - 14:00 - Fed's Beige Book
Wednesday Earnings reports: BAC, NFLX, DAL, USB and others

Thu - Apr 16 - 08:30 - Initial Jobless Claims
Thu - Apr 16 - 08:30 - Housing Starts & Building Permits
Thu - Apr 16 - 10:00 - Philadelphia Fed
Thu - Apr 16 - 10:30 - Natural Gas Inventories
Thursday Earnings reports: AXP, C, UNH and others

Fri – Apr 17 – 10:00 - U Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Friday Earnings reports: GE, HON and others
[GE popped Friday on the announcement of plans to exit the banking business and refocus on industrial operations, buyback $50 billion of their own shares (already board approved), and bite the tax bullet and repatriate $36 billion in foreign cash – WSJ.
Analysts are now scrambling to revise their earnings projections so they don’t get caught with their dicks out.

[Cobra]

Based on the feed back, I added "How to use info" session in the weekend report, hopefully can ease the confusion: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/04 ... -reversal/

[Royal Flush]

ES closed the week at the top fork (2095.75). If it breaks through the next resistance is above at 2102.75

[Royal Flush]

I have a sell signal on $USDCAD but I am waiting until it reaches the top of the triangle to trade.

[BullBear52x]

What to look for in a week to come?

Bears: I'll look at a reversal, see red dots/arrows
Bulls: I'll look at green dots, respect the reversal line (blue line) if it comes.

[BullBear52x]

AAPL? still in the woods.