05/09/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

members only report provided more research on the gap fill I just mentioned: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/05 ... g-the-gap/

This very very nice of you to have done this.
Thank you.

[BullBear52x]

This consolidation has taken the wind out of both bulls and bears alike. looks like bulls are in for another attempt to breakout.

%B is back in bull territory.

Chart pattern is also imply a bullish bias.

What about sell in May? last year was buy in May.

from it is what it is department, sell the rips is at hand, keep it simple.

[Al_Dente]

As long as VIX futures remain in contango, the percentage change in XIV (orange dashed line) will look quite generous (even with an annual XIV expense ratio of 1.35%, deducted from XIV on a daily basis), and will pancake everything around it.
This chart is three-months percentage performance

On Friday “$VIX futures contango settled at 10.96%. Contago costs are very high for long term $VXX, $UVXY holders” [source: VixCentral]
[Viz: If contango is 10% it means that the second-month future is 10% higher than the first-month future.]

[fehro]

Near term musings on USD/GOLD/OIL. GOLD long term monthly still looks sick.. and I've been talking about that H&S for months mentioning to take it with some doubt.. it sure is pretty!

Anyhow... not sure why but I'm starting to "feel" bullish about gold.. need a confirmation of price movement.. as per one of Jesse Livermore's rules.. Don’t trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion. It seems to be sitting here a tad too long at this level... and "feel" a move and hold above the 50d, "could" see a 200d break..with the key level in the 1260-80ish range. This move "could" be explosive. Seeing a few negative mainstream reports/calls on gold (contrarian view) and the talk of the Gold markets/exchanges setting up in China may take power away from London markets? and then the usual stuff.. Greece, US Debt, reserve currency status, etc. just rambling here. The daily vol on Friday on GLD/50d pushed me to go long calls... cautiously. "IF" the move up starts to impulse will add aggressively. (short term still possible triangle on the 60m mind the breaks)

The USD movements could add to the move and with that.. possible a H&S on the USD which could take us to the end of summer to reach the target?

OIL also a tad mixed... near term still looks like a H&S 60m, which could build into the daily ( not marked middle chart, but you get the idea). Last week's candle is ugly/ bearish leaning. Could be still wedging up within bearish rising wedge.. the pullback support level will be of interest, and of course with an eye on the USD movements. All for what it's worth.