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Agree and looks like retail is back to 'greed' mode coming into todays session: IBD has been blowing it for close to 2 years now and their turns have been consistently in the wrong direction.BullBear52x wrote:Complacency level is high at yesterday's closed, I doubt that the majority will be right, very over bought market right now.
11:30 bar was the first.Daniel wrote:Since yesterday's gap and go, SPY 15min timeframe there has been no 15min bar that has closed below the (upslope) 20period MA.
Almost did earlier this AM but did not.
IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&SDaniel wrote:IWM, rs leader on the day, holding well above daily VWAP, while spy and qqq are below. KRE continues to push its LOD.
NYSE up/down volume still about 50/50 on the day.
Mixed signals typical of an Opex Friday AM.
Impeccable analysis, as always, and normally I would join you as soon as IWM began to discernably shed its intraday relative strength.fehro wrote:IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&S
Thanks, and I totally understand.. the proper entry is on a break of the neckline, or the wedge for early entry. My concerns are, "IF" this is the "TOP".. we have potential complex wave 2's on all indexes near the highs.. but not technically making new highs.. so...wave 2... if we do break down "could" be on gap and a sharp drop. So probably a little early on my entry. If any index makes a new high.. then scratch all the above. I'm thinking/ leaning towards the aggressive side due to the weakness in TRAN. In 2007.. TRAN broke support *8-10 weeks (see below) before the Oct 2007 top.. after nearly after a 6 month sideways move... Very similar to where we are at.. so yes we "could" head up.. still before rolling over. But seems to be a good place to start. Will add on breaks.. strong support on the RUT at previous highs.. so have to see what happens at that pointDaniel wrote:Impeccable analysis, as always, and normally I would join you as soon as IWM began to discernably shed its intraday relative strength.fehro wrote:IWM may be a leader... but looks ripe for a possible swing short.. scaling into TZA .. RUT @ RS of H&S
But I'm always reluctant to initiate positions intraday on Opex Fri. Too many random movements from institutional manipulations. (Perhaps if still showing weakness at the close, when all settlements and reverberations and rebalancings are done...)