10/02/2015 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Double top breakdown, although I don't believe double top target, way too many failures, but this is what happened when everybody expects huge up today. I really was surprised to see lots of guys yelling for huge up today. Judging by the close yesterday, it did look like big guys were expecting some really good news, so too bad I kind believed so for the 2nd day in a row I hold a small long overnight. Lesson learnt, surprise is always with the trend!

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/10 ... ay-update/

[uempel]

This was sent out in the early (European) morning, two hours before the jobs report at 8:30 a.m.


The S&P 500 Index has followed the path which we expected to follow the August selloff. The index retraced quite exactly 61.80% of the August selloff on the day of the FED interest rate decision on 17.9.2015. The failure to break upwards suggested that another short-term decline was to be expected.

Indeed, this decline has pulled the index back towards the support zone around 1870 to 1830. This is the range, a break of which would shift the weight of the evidence from the bullish Elliott Wave interpretation to a more bearish one. So far, we still treat the August correction as wave IV within the long-term uptrend from 2009. If the support holds depends on our momentum readings. The S&P would have to recover to around 1945 to signal a short-term momentum bottom. Moreover, it would have to rise above 1970 for the medium-term momentum to signal a new uptrend.

For now, the index remains in its trading range between 1830 and 1970. Ideally, the index would see some more minor weakness to a successful test of 1850 in October. This would fit the Cycle Composite for 2015, which calls for a cycle low in October. It could be followed by a resumption of the uptrend. This is the scenario we call the inflation scenario.

The FED decision to leave rates unchanged centered around the argument of global growth concerns. However, what seems to be more of a concern to the stock market is the outlook for inflation, as measured for example by the Consumer Price Index. A major concern here is that the uptrend in the CPI has slowed to the extent that the absolute trend in the CPI could in fact turn down. If the CPI breaks the low from January 2015 at 234, it would also signal a major top and stress the deflation scenario. Obviously, the price of oil plays a key role here because much of the slowdown in the CPI is derived from the oil decline. For now, Crude oil is consolidating above long-term support at 38. A clear break above 50 would be an encouraging sign that the financial markets are more likely to re-instate the reflationary trend.

For now, our Global-40 Stock Markets Model still shows most technical indicators in red. If the S&P fails to hold the support around 1830 the deflation scenario would become the preferred scenario, if also the CPI tops out.

As we continue to assess the risk/reward of the deflation/inflation scenarios with a respective break in the S&P from the present trading range we stick to our neutral equity view.

© RB at CS

[fehro]

Mind the lower trends… today's weekly candle close will be key. Mind the lower open gaps.

VIX over 27.50-28 … measured move for the messy invs H&S is 44.50!! so be very careful over that level!

DXY - USD$ very sharp drop in the dollar looses - 200d sma

Gold pops $30ish!! -- /GC key level 1146-50, '46 8 month downtrend, '50 1yr breakdown level.. over those gold will move very sharply up! - delayed chart trading at 1133-36

[fehro]

H&S SPX 5m/ SPY target 1875 / 187.50

[gappy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6PsBm4VeJQ

Capture.PNG

Vote Cobra. glta

[Unique]

ES Chart Update

[Junior Buffett]

ES Chart Update

Unique, Let us know when your train arrives at the station. So we can board the train!

[Unique]

FYI, ES approaching back to hourly extreme oversold signal region laugh

Waiting for price to confirm, bulls need a minimum of 15m bull bar reversal to signal a decent R/R bounce

[Unique]

ES Chart Update

Unique, Let us know when your train arrives at the station. So we can board the train!

Currently, I am long 1889, stop 1883.
Target 1 = 1905. Target 2 = 1912
Med probability trade at best.

[Al_Dente]

NFP missed expectations

[fehro]

SPX .. holds first levels.. looking for gap lower fills.. neckline retest first? possible resistance here..too

[fehro]

TLT / GLD big movers... USO slips..

[Daniel]

NFP missed expectations

Good morning AD, thank you for joining us with this hot breaking news.



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Unique, what does the SS? on your original chart mean?

[marcueus]

Well guys, bottom was on tuseday - but we can today retest it so few more folks could get long - ofc, there iss also possibility that we will go under 1869 - but than we will get down move till at least 1700

Best option for today coming arround 1875 and possibly making hammer

[Unique]

NFP missed expectations

Good morning AD, thank you for joining us with this hot breaking news.



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Unique, what does the SS? on your original chart mean?

Sticksave at 61.8% fib level is a common occurrence nowadays.... it is what it is

If busts 61.8% then 78.6% becomes immediate target...

[DellGriffith]

Hi guys! There was some talk about $TICK yesterday. There is a free 5-minute $TICK here, altho its not bounded in that 500 to -500 range. http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=% ... Date=#jump

[finman66]

Headline should read "Bulls skewered by NFP ...... again"

Oh, the fickleness of government manipulated numbers

[Unique]

ES if 1883 goes, next level 78.6% = 1875

[Daniel]

Sticksave at 61.8% fib level

Ah. Hockey analogy. My best guess had been "sure-shot".