10/06/2015 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

It will be even be nicer to trigger come2papa sell at 2x top, the risk is even less for bears

Sometimes you're too cryptic for me amigo...

no, sorry you feel that way, I am looking for key word like "bull or bear are dead again" and "squeeze", as you can see the day the market goes sideways or down there are less post here on this forum, that too tells me the population are more bullish than bearish regardless.

[fehro]

SPX red VIX red… again… TLT green .. triangle 5m .. doji the daily SPX.. ?

[Unique]

DUST: Possible 5minute Cup and handle formation 100% measure move = 18.91.

61.8% = 18.21

Invalid under 15.7.

[BullBear52x]

How is this chart be so confusing? sell the rips when RSI > 70 and drop back under 70 to trigger. chase down using chart pattern like bear flag at the moment.

[Trades with cats]

Down loaded some updated indicators this weekend. Public shout out to Fat Tails, your stuff is the best! Now I can do VWAP on the cash market only while still using extended trading hours tick charts. So what I see today is that ES keeps stalling out around VWAP. I am probably wrong (and I don't use volume with tick charts) but I think they are hitting the sell button at that level.

[BullBear52x]

on the fast finger chart intraday of intraday, from last buy green arrow stop is now sitting at 1979. if stop out next sell, reversal candle will trigger the sell, this is not easy but I still show where the buy and sell.

[fehro]

looking more and more like a bear flag.. on the 5m.. could break sharply here.. SPX 5m /60m.. another inverted hammer

[Tutti]

Down loaded some updated indicators this weekend. Public shout out to Fat Tails, your stuff is the best! Now I can do VWAP on the cash market only while still using extended trading hours tick charts. So what I see today is that ES keeps stalling out around VWAP. I am probably wrong (and I don't use volume with tick charts) but I think they are hitting the sell button at that level.

TWC - what are your thoughts on the fundamentals behind the oil move of late? You always have a well informed take.

[MrMiyagi]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[BullBear52x]

Intraday buy got stop out, next...find excuse to sell.

[MrMiyagi]

Anyone holding shorts overnight? Feels like the Bears looked at the calendar, saw it's October and will hibernate, today was a last paw attempt...

[Cobra]

!!! POWER HOUR !!!

[Al_Dente]

[MrMiyagi]

qqq

[BullBear52x]

last sell intraday, peace!

Long term new sell triggered today.

[BullBear52x]

Anyone holding shorts overnight? Feels like the Bears looked at the calendar, saw it's October and will hibernate, today was a last paw attempt...

yes, for long term holding, 1992.5 is a stop.

[Trades with cats]

On oil the media narrative is that all the shale drillers will go broke. The vulture funds are still circling but they haven't gotten any deals yet. The public, which has to include hedge funds, keeps knife catching which has allowed the drillers to buy one more drink on someone else's money. Supposedly the junk bond market is closing to these firms, but Umpel's comment about money men today talking up oil implies they are hoping for one more round of fees. After all with three month Treasuries at 0 maybe potential yield is more important than return of capital.

This week the printed rumor is concerns that Russian aircraft will cause an issue in the middle east. In smaller print tanker rates are going up because the Chinese and others are using them for floating storage. So some future demand is being shifted to the current period. At the same time we are finally seeing a small reduction in US output but so far it is trivial. Sometime next year the Iranians will start selling an additional million and a half barrels a day (the Kerry legacy). At that point North American, Brazil and any other high cost producers are officially "dead man walking". The official guesses are that the world is currently producing a million barrels a day too much, US needs to shed at least 700,000 barrels a day, but no one really knows for sure.

Realistically how long can a surge in prices last as the refineries shut down to switch to winter blend. And there is only one winter blend so we become a single market for the worlds surplus gasoline.

With all the negatives and the price so low it is the perfect set up for a short covering rally and if you can play them there will be plenty of opportunities this winter. Just remember that longer term $60 is the claimed price where the shale drillers will turn up new production.

[MrMiyagi]

yes, for long term holding, 1992.5 is a stop.

Allright, thanks BB52x, hasta manana.

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: Long term chart sell the rips today. This chart is so simple the president candidates can under stand include congressmen/women. Peace.

[Tutti]

On oil the media narrative is that all the shale drillers will go broke. The vulture funds are still circling but they haven't gotten any deals yet. The public, which has to include hedge funds, keeps knife catching which has allowed the drillers to buy one more drink on someone else's money. Supposedly the junk bond market is closing to these firms, but Umpel's comment about money men today talking up oil implies they are hoping for one more round of fees. After all with three month Treasuries at 0 maybe potential yield is more important than return of capital.

This week the printed rumor is concerns that Russian aircraft will cause an issue in the middle east. In smaller print tanker rates are going up because the Chinese and others are using them for floating storage. So some future demand is being shifted to the current period. At the same time we are finally seeing a small reduction in US output but so far it is trivial. Sometime next year the Iranians will start selling an additional million and a half barrels a day (the Kerry legacy). At that point North American, Brazil and any other high cost producers are officially "dead man walking". The official guesses are that the world is currently producing a million barrels a day too much, US needs to shed at least 700,000 barrels a day, but no one really knows for sure.

Realistically how long can a surge in prices last as the refineries shut down to switch to winter blend. And there is only one winter blend so we become a single market for the worlds surplus gasoline.

With all the negatives and the price so low it is the perfect set up for a short covering rally and if you can play them there will be plenty of opportunities this winter. Just remember that longer term $60 is the claimed price where the shale drillers will turn up new production.

Nice and level headed take , t/y