11/21/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more distribution than accumulation, but distribution is down while accumulation is up, so we might be in bottoming phase.

When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.
When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.
When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money keeps selling big so it's close to case 1.), a warning sign.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[gappy]

E.o.d. last check. After the cash close. 5 minute.

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Poor end but fear not pax americana will escort Santa in thru the no fly zone.

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Vote Cobra. glta

[gappy]

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Silver. Anyone else take these 3 handles? 15 minute.

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If so, let it ride carefully if you're still short. Weekly.

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[Al_Dente]

SCHWAB’s recap of the week by David L. Blake, edited for brevity:
The week ended with the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all back in positive territory for the year. The rally was broad based with every sector higher led by the Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) and Technology Sector (XLK). The underlying technical indicators were mixed but showed negative divergence. In addition, the Advance/Decline line for the NYSE and NASDAQ didn't confirm the strength of the broader markets upward move. Negative divergence shows up in the technical indicators when prices are rising but some of the indicators aren't moving higher in concert. Although negative divergence isn't a sell signal by itself, it represents a warning of possible trouble ahead. The major averages were able to punch through resistance levels this week which will now represent support areas. Most notable was the clearance of the 200-day moving average by the Dow and S&P 500. In addition, the DJ Transportation Index, which has been a laggard, broke through a resistance area at 8275-8285 which bodes well for the market. If the transports can push above the 200-day moving average at 8410 it would be the first time since May that the index has been at that level. Stocks rallied on hopes of additional stimulus overseas and that could supply the catalyst to kick in a “Santa' rally”. I may sound like a reluctant bull but I can't ignore the negative divergence in the indicators nor can I discount the fact that the Shiller P/E for the S& 500 was at 26 on Friday. That's 58% higher than the historical mean of 16.6 for the S&P 500…. The FOMC in their post-meeting statement left little doubt as to their intentions to raise rates in December and the stock market shouldn't be surprised if rates tick higher for the first time in nine years. Some have questioned whether the terror attacks this week could push the Fed action out until 2016 but I wouldn't count on it. This week the CME Group FedWatch pegged the probability of a rate hike at 73.6%.

[fehro]

Weekly /Daily Candles doji/ inverted hammer leaning on the dailies. SPX / DJ-30 / DJ-20 more so... no hammer tho on the VIX daily. Weeklies trying so hard for an outside reversal of last week.. RUT weak, TLT a green for a second week a tad interesting, VIX holding support of sorts.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies

[fehro]

T2 Indicators http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm mixed few indicators trying to signal buy, but a tad more on the sell side

[fehro]

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily.

[fehro]

Yields

[AndrasGy]

Last week crushed any bear dreams for 2015.

In the coming weeks I prefer bull case:

- NYMO spike below -60 was very good entry point in recent years
- Buy in November sell in December
- RSI(3) above 30 for 25 days

[Unique]

See blog for better format: http://aapltechnicals.blogspot.ca/

ES Weekend Update: Keep It Simple Stupid Series – The Bear Train Derailment

Friday’s day session started out with an hourly bull breakout bar that needed to hold half to continue higher. Bears stepped in at the 2094.50 high when the first immediate target was fulfilled. Subsequently, it was just a shakefest the 15minute chart forming lower highs for a few few hours until bulls sticksaved at the 1HR 50SMA support near the end of the day. Bulls won the battle of the weekly candlestick since they pretty much retraced 100% of last week’s bear bar.
A quick recap of what occurred this past week:
• Monday the market got the deadcat bounce as we had expected and daily closed as a huge bull engulf bar
• Tuesday consolidation day where daily 8EMA,20EMA and 200SMA was rejected first try
• Wednesday bears failed to defend their levels as bulls retook the 61.8% fib retracement level and closed above all the moving averages. A full retrace back to 2110.25 was in the works. Along with possible cup and handle 100% measure move target at 2128.50. This concluded that it was not a deadcat bounce anymore since the daily bear train short re-entry setup was over
• Thursday another consolidation/shakefest day for hourly moving averages to play catch up
• Friday initial hourly breakout that became an intraday shakefest and bulls sticksaved at 1HR 50sma near the end of the day. Waiting for next week’s straight continuation after monthly options expiration shenanigans is over

What’s next?
Daily closed at 2088.75, bulls have managed to close above the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level. This concludes that a full retrace to 2110.25 is in the roadmap now. Price is above all the daily 8EMA, 20EMA and 200SMA levels and bears had failed their swing re-short entries setup.
The first immediate target of 2092 was fulfilled on Friday. This is a bull train until price proves otherwise as it is above the daily 8EMA and 20EMA.

As long as price remains above 2070, the immediate targets are 2100 and 2110.
The intermediate target is now the cup and handle 100% measure move that targets 2128.50.

Weekly Chart Perspective
This week the bulls managed to retrace the previous week’s bear bar entirely, this should provide a nice feedback loop of trapped bears squeeze once price triggers above 2011.50 the November 9th week high. A straight continuation up/consolidation week first then up the next week are the probable scenarios based on the current setup. It is also a shortened week due to Thanksgiving which means we will not be trading regular size positions after Tuesday/Wednesday.

Monthly Chart Perspective
In the context of the monthly chart, August 2015 vs October 2014 formed a double bottom – this is the intermediate swing breakout bulls are looking for new ATH. Remember, the October monthly bar was a huge bull engulf that still gives the potential of a breakout the next few subsequent months as long as price stays above October’s half way candle point.

[uempel]

Chart with daily BB13/1 (green), BB20/2 (light blue) and MA 9. System suggests that SPX has to break above the green area in order to solidify the bullish picture. On Friday SPX turned when it hit the upper band of BB13/1.

[ALdaytrade]

Why are there no $SPX futures?

[brucekeller]

Why are there no $SPX futures?

What do you mean?

Oh, they stopped trading at 8:06? I'm not at home so can only see through investing.com and finviz.

[ALdaytrade]

Why are there no $SPX futures?

What do you mean?

Oh, they stopped trading at 8:06? I'm not at home so can only see through investing.com and finviz.

Investing is back.