02/05/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Range, direction not clear.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 1905 20d SMA, mind the morning gap opening around 1910. Take out Wed lows, look gap fill 1873-70. Below that then 1840ish. above yesterday's HOD, look for 1938-43 open gap

[fehro]

SPX - pre open

[daytradingES]

8:00 AM 2/5/2016
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choppy o/n => choppy day-time?


sideways band 1922.50-1890
prob stop running to low side

slow start today - machine and sleep - estimates later
but
1921
1887.25
as working numbers


OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.07%) are up +0.16% and European stocks are up +0.32% ahead of the monthly U.S. payrolls report. Equity prices have been tracking crude oil prices for direction and Mar WTI crude (CLH16 +1.23%) is up +1.29%. Gains in European stocks were limited after German Dec factory orders declined more than expected. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan -1.32%, Hong Kong +0.55%, China -0.63%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -0.08%, Singapore +2.53%, South Korea +0.17%, India +1.14%. Japan's Nikkei Stock Index fell to a 2-week low as bank stocks fell after Citigroup cut its ratings on Japan's three biggest lenders by assets. Also, exporters moved lower after the yen slid to a 2-week low against the dollar and undercut the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) is up +0.19%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.06%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.17%) are up +5 ticks.

German Dec factory orders fell -0.7% m/m and -2.7% y/y, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and -1.4% y/y, with the -2.7% y/y drop the biggest annual decline in 3-1/4 years.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jan non-farm payrolls (expected +190,000, Dec +292,000) and Jan unemployment rate (expected unch at 5.0%, Dec unch at 5.0%), (2) Dec trade balance (expected -$43.20 billion, Nov -$42.37 billion), and (3) Dec consumer credit (expected +$16.0 billion, Nov +$13.951 billion).

There are 7 of the S&P 500 companies that report earnings today: Tyson Foods (consensus $0.89), Weyerhaeuser (0.24), Estee Lauder (1.11), AMETEK (0.63), CME Group (0.90), Aon (2.09), Moody's (1.05).

U.S. IPO's scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences today include: none.
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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 151K vs 190K Expected; UE Rate 4.9% vs 5% Expected
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 151K vs 190K Expected; UE Rate 4.9% vs 5% Expected
Fri, 05 Feb 2016 08:30:00 -0500
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Futures little changed ahead of U.S. jobs report
By Tanya Agrawal

(Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the January employment report that could provide clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook.

* U.S. employment gains likely slowed in January to 190,000 jobs from 292,000 jobs in December as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded. The data is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET.

* U.S. equities have been tracking oil prices since the start of the year.

* Oil prices, which were up about 1 percent, have been extremely volatile this year, and this week in particular, as a slump in the dollar .DXY> and potential talks on output cuts clashed with reports of record inventories.

[JFR]

Small gaps down on ES, NQ and YM. YM already filled.

[Tutti]

To those not happy with their 2016 performance I would like to suggest that your morning could be much worse. LNKD -35% DATA -50%

[fehro]

SPX pink trend 1899 next key level, NDX takes out yesterday's LOD.. and oh as per yesterday…viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1937&p=214296#p214293 SPX 20d< 1903

[JFR]

$TICK running in the negatives.

[Trades with cats]

Trying to bounce.

[uempel]

Bullish Percentages weak after yesterday's huge move to the upside:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... BPENER|B|0

SPX broke below the daily MA 20 and MA 9. If the index stays below into the close it's a bad sign for bulls.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:02 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/02 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX testing 20d again 1903

[daytradingES]

9:13 AM 2/5/2016

updated levels
Est High= 1918.75
Est Low= 1891.00

[fehro]

SPY 15m.. lots of room to go either way.. and take China "offside" next week Bears, lower red, then Pink B, Bulls yellow neckline.. lots of gap material for Monday

[brokebybernacke2]

Put a fork in it

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. B with a little Friday NYMO chatter.

The cycle is up?
A lower high was set yesterday. If we get a closing lower low, I'll be marking January 29 as the cycle high and price benchmark.
The bulls could still take NYMO higher though. So, the cycle is up until it is not. Just have to wait and see.

We hit two target areas this week. Resistance levels are dropping and thus possible further upside targets are slipping lower.
Given the look of things, the upper target areas look like very remote possibilities to me.
However, the middle keltner band, currently at SPX 1971ish, could be doable if we can get another thrust within what may be an upward channel here.
This middle keltner band is dropping about 2.5 handles a day now roughly.

If we get a closing lower low on NYMO, turning the cycle down, I'll be slapping some downside targets on this chart.

Last Friday, I got a bit bearish given the extreme NYMO move.
I closed longs Monday and caught a nice day trade short on Wednesday.
I am flat now, but am oriented to put long back on.
There is pretty good asymmetry to be had if one can imagine a trip to the middle keltner band.
Let's see how today unfolds. Mr. Market can do what he wants, and I don't have a clue what that will be.

[fehro]

SPX 1905 20d SMA, mind the morning gap opening around 1910. Take out Wed lows, look gap fill 1873-70. Below that then 1840ish. above yesterday's HOD, look for 1938-43 open gap

SPX

[Cobra]

Fib 61.8% mm, vol surge, should be a rebound here first then we'll see.

[fehro]

VIX acting very hairy this am.. somethings a tad strange