02/06/2016 Weekend Update

[Out of Bounds]

Paging Al_Dente

I forgot to post this for you:

[gappy]

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source ... ?sfvrsn=26 Vote Cobra

Capture.PNG

glta

[Al_Dente]

Paging Al_Dente
I forgot to post this for you:

thanks boss
here's one 4 u

[Al_Dente]

[pezhead9000]

WSJ Block Money Flow: 2010-Today

[pezhead9000]

WSJ Block Money Flow June 2015-Today: Showing positive divergence. Friday, January 29th had +20,001M.

[pezhead9000]

Current planning assumptions

[brokebybernacke2]

Current planning assumptions

That is THE chart pez!

[Al_Dente]

1 year and 6 months, Sector Performance
SPY is purple
Note the horizontal-red line is zero (0%)
SPY has given up all the gains made in the past 1 year, 6 months
Ouch

[Al_Dente]

Current planning assumptions

That is THE chart pez!

+1

[Out of Bounds]

here's one 4 u

I just can't bring myself to trade gold or oil - I've seen too many lose so much, got stung on my first trade and quit those two.

[TraderJoe]

I read in a newsletter that there are 2 head & shoulder formations now;
On of them is complete with a target of 1800.
If this target fulfills, it will complete the second and the new target for this H&S will be 1500.

Any input???

[daytradingES]

6:36 AM 2/8/2016

Monday, February 8th, 2016
OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -1.31%) are down -1.12% at a 2-week low and European stocks are down -2.11% at a 15-1/2 month low on global economic concerns. Weakness in crude oil and in copper pushed energy producers and mining stocks lower, while the cost of insuring the debt of European financial companies rose as the Markit iTraxx Europe Senior Financial Index of credit-default swaps climbed +11 bp to 132 bp, the highest in 2-3/4 years. A loss of confidence is another negative for European stocks after the Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence fell more than expected to the lowest in 13 months. The weakness in stocks and signs of distress in the European corporate bond market fueled a surge of safe-haven buying of government debt that pushed Germany's 2-year note yield down to a record low -0.506% (data since 1990) and the yield on the German 10-year bund down to 0.247%, a 9-1/4 month low. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.10%, Australia -0.02%, India -1.34% with Hong Kong, China Taiwan Singapore and South Korea closed for holiday. Japanese stocks bucked the trend and closed higher as a rally exporters led the overall market higher after Friday's U.S. Jan payrolls report boosted the dollar against the yen and improved the earnings prospects of Japanese exporters.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) is up +0.19%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.29%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.27%.

Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 +0.26%) are up +6 ticks.

The Eurozone Feb Sentix investor confidence fell -3.6 to 6.0, weaker than expectations of -2.2 to 7.4 and the lowest in 13 months.
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MARKET COMMENTS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 -1.31%) this morning are down -21.00 points (-1.12%) at a 2-week low. Friday's closes: S&P 500 -1.85%, Dow Jones -1.29%, Nasdaq -3.44%. The S&P 500 on Friday closed sharply lower on concern about the U.S. economy after U.S. Jan payrolls rose by only +151,000, weaker than the +190,000 consensus. In addition, there was concern that the Fed may still be on course to raise interest rates based on rising wages after Jan average hourly earnings rose +0.5% m/m and +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH16 +0.26%)this morning are up +6 ticks. Friday's closes: TYH6 +3.00, FVH6 -1.25. Mar T-notes on Friday closed higher on the smaller-than-expected increase in U.S. Jan non-farm payrolls (+153,000 vs. expectations of +190,000) and on reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven rate fell to a 1-week low. T-note prices were undercut by the U.S. Jan average hourly earnings report of +0.5% m/m and +2.5% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.2% y/y.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.17%) this morning is up +0.187 (+0.19%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0032 (-0.29%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.31 (-0.27%). Friday's closes: Dollar Index +0.557 (+0.58%), EUR/USD +0.0051 (-0.45), USD/JPY +0.09 (+0.08%). The dollar index on Friday closed higher on the +0.5% m/m increase in U.S. Jan avg hourly earnings, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the biggest monthly increase in a year, which bolsters the case for the Fed to keep raising interest rates. The dollar index was also boosted by weakness in EUR/USD after German Dec factory orders fell more than expected.

Mar crude oil (CLH16 -2.62%) this morning is down -78 cents (-2.53%) and Mar gasoline (RBH16 -2.16%) is down -0.0207 (-2.09%). Friday's closes: CLH6 -0.72 (-2.27%), RBH6 -0.0389 (-3.78%). Mar crude oil and gasoline on Friday closed lower on a stronger dollar and on the persistent oil glut with U.S. crude stockpiles more than 130 million bbl above the 5-year avg.


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Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China were all closed for the new year holiday. China, a focus of recent market concern, will be closed for the entire week.

Beijing has been struggling to underpin the yuan, which faces depreciation pressure as China's growth rate slows to its lowest levels in a quarter of a century.

"The Chinese currency is under quite notable market pressure and that requires quite active intervention from the authorities," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ currency economist Lee Hardman in London. "That poses downside risk to Asian currencies and the Aussie, which is seen as the China proxy."

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday showed an increase of just 151,000 jobs last month, short of expectations for a rise of 190,000.
Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China were all closed for the new year holiday. China, a focus of recent market concern, will be closed for the entire week.

Beijing has been struggling to underpin the yuan, which faces depreciation pressure as China's growth rate slows to its lowest levels in a quarter of a century.

"The Chinese currency is under quite notable market pressure and that requires quite active intervention from the authorities," said Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ currency economist Lee Hardman in London. "That poses downside risk to Asian currencies and the Aussie, which is seen as the China proxy."

The U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday showed an increase of just 151,000 jobs last month, short of expectations for a rise of 190,000.
Speculators slashed bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a sixth straight week through Feb. 2, as net longs fell to their lowest level since roughly the third week of October, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The dollar index .DXY>, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major rivals, fell 0.2 percent on Monday to 96.841, approaching a trough of 96.259 plumbed last Thursday, its lowest since October.

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares plunged to 16-month lows on Monday, extending a aggressive sell-off, while bond yields and oil also fell as investors shed risky assets on persistent concern over the pace of global growth.

Data over the weekend showing China's foreign reserves fell for a third straight month in January, as dollars were dumped to defend the yuan and curb capital outflows, did nothing to calm investors. Though the fall was less than some had feared, it was the second biggest on record.

That followed a mixed U.S. jobs report on Friday that had sent stocks on Wall Street lower.

Crude oil futures skidded over 2 percent to just over $33 by 5.15 a.m. ET, as a meeting between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and Venezuela provided little indication that steps would be taken to boost prices. Earlier, oil had gained as much as 1 percent on hopes that an agreement would be reached to curb supply.
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[uempel]

Looking back at January/February 2008:

February 2008

February 2016

[uempel]

Paging Al_Dente

I forgot to post this for you:

The attachment capture.png is no longer available

WMT: did WMT show a good-bye kiss at 67? I think there is further work to be done on the downside. In my view the odds don't favor the bulls up at this level.

[Wallstreetrader]

Time to reverse sh to lo

[pezhead9000]

Thought we would see a short-term rebound - looks like Euro bank contagion is spreading. Chart of Euro bank CDS spreads.