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Boss, when you compare the chart to August then you see that the the hedger position big up way earlier than the second leg down. also, in institution dis/accu chart, it seems there were several cross over around 09/17. therefore i don't think there is a contradiction. pretty much a good predictive indicator, but not well timed.Cobra wrote:Smart money keeps buying so pointing to a bottom. Combining with the institutional buying and selling chart, so the Friday's sell off was just a surprise, the next week will resume up?
How I use the chart:
I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:
1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.
So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.
Aargh. Chartless. I got 1780sp target for this run down assume fed will step in by thenfehro wrote:Weekly/Daily candles not pretty.
Like gap down monday scenario nasdaq tech lead way short other indices as they catch up, people late to bail...rhight wrote:My 2 cents :
An interesting consolidation pattern (continuation or reversal?) has developed since the January low on the SPX. I’m not sure which it is, although my cycle study suggests a couple possibilities discussed below.
Shorter term, a 60 min swing up to test a downtrend from the 12/29/15 2081 Hi through the 2/1/16 1947 Hi may be in order. Perhaps tellingly, Thursdays Hi at 1927.35 did not reach this downtrend line (1931 on that day), producing a key reversal on the 60 min chart. That was after a gap down on Tuesday morning that remains unclosed. Price wise, these look like bearish portents. Still, the gap up from 1/22 hasn’t closed and is firm support.
A move up on Monday would be met with declining 5 and 20 DMA’s, the gap at 1915, the downtrend at ~1920 and the 61.8% retrace of the swing down from 1947.
Potentially substantial resistance, at least for a 60 min swing. If we see a lower Hi on the 60 min swing (< 1927) then that could open the door to a break of support at 1870.
If we gap down on Monday, we may be off to the races on a wave 3 of 5 discussed below.
EW choices:
Bull : we are in the b wave of an abc wave 4 retracement of the Dec/Jan downtrend, and wave c will extend up to major resistance in the 1980 - 2000 range. My cycle analysis gave a window of 2/4 to 2/9 for a high probability Daily cycle Hi, and so we could still go charging up for a few days.
Bear : wave 4 of the downtrend from the December Hi completed at 1947, and we have now completed wave 1 and 2 of the 5th wave. We are now in the early stages of wave 3 of 5, and a big move down may commence in a couple days. IF 1947 was the Daily cycle Hi, then cycle analysis yields a high probability for a Low between 2/18 and 2/23. The image shows the turning points that I used in this analysis. No price predictions because the statistical window in so broad given the wide swings in the past 6 months. Better to look at other factors as a trend emerges. Full disclosure : in cash, closed a short a eod Friday.