Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Ferho, Exactly right. Specs are in control of oil for the time. Reported that Hedge Funds are at nine month high for long contracts. Huston Ship Canal shut down at 2130 last night. If it stays closed for a day or two that will guarantee a decent draw next week. Longer term the teapot refineries have increased Chinese demand for oil by 12% so you know most of that product is being exported, no wonder their ports are all clogged up.
My guess is Da Boyz will use the next couple weeks of inventory draws to keep prices up. After a little bit we will start seeing news reports about world wide product storage close to filling (that's plowing the field). Then towards the end of the summer drive season (assuming the economy doesn't hockey stick up) they will discover that we are out of storage and slam it down to a spike low around 20 or what ever it takes to make a chunk of the operators actually stop pumping. Cutting off credit hasn't rebalanced the market, bankruptcy doesn't seem to be forcing a rebalancing, so the only thing left is getting price below the cost to pump it out of the ground.
If you really want to understand shale, just look at the Natural Gas market. My wife gets checks every month for well royalties that have been in her family for 3 generations. They are 20% of what they were a decade ago and that is after 7 years of the Government's war on coal. And just as they get the export liquefaction trains turned on world prices drop from $12 to $4 something because of the gulf states and the Aussies. It's like buying stock in 1930.
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
/CL - USOIL - possible resistance.. possible support on DXY.. still looking for a 20w SMA 35.33 tag in oil.. maybe too optimistic.. weekly candle lower low, *LOWER high.. but hammer at the moment.. but only one day in.. dabble USO P
Attachments
Last edited by fehro on Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
buyers did come in as expected. now it's 2nd test of day high, 40% chances of double top. wait.
Attachments
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.