04/22/2016 Live Update

[ALdaytrade]

SPX .. dabble small short. here… see if VIX support holds

Nice job on these charts!

[Cobra]

kind of ascending triangle, bias is up.

[fehro]

SPX little wedge break… battle for the weekly candle close .. careful of hard sell into the close

[JFR]

Have a Coke. Good day for Coca-Cola in the markets.

[fehro]

SPY 2m.. bulls vs bears… minor H&S or bigger invs H&S .. part of an even larger H&S 60m ..

[Junior Buffett]

SPY 2m.. bulls vs bears… minor H&S or bigger invs H&S .. part of an even larger H&S 60m ..

I was reading one article..guy was showing charts from Feb and trying to set up herd mentality..that at that point people were expecting oil to hit in teens, Gold to hit below $1000 and S & P is in Bear trend.

back to today..he is showing S & P chart and claiming that since most of the people still believe that we are in bear territory, we are now heading for new 7 year bull market!

What I don't understand is who in right mind still think that S & P is in Bear territory? and on what basis he is claiming 7 year bull cycle from here?

[MrMiyagi]

spy

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/04 ... ay-update/

[MrMiyagi]

Have a good weekend everyone!

xle

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Ratbastrd]

SPY 2m.. bulls vs bears… minor H&S or bigger invs H&S .. part of an even larger H&S 60m ..

I was reading one article..guy was showing charts from Feb and trying to set up herd mentality..that at that point people were expecting oil to hit in teens, Gold to hit below $1000 and S & P is in Bear trend.

back to today..he is showing S & P chart and claiming that since most of the people still believe that we are in bear territory, we are now heading for new 7 year bull market!

What I don't understand is who in right mind still think that S & P is in Bear territory? and on what basis he is claiming 7 year bull cycle from here?

Hi Guy's, don't post very often but thought I would chime in on this since I just did some research on the subject, because I was confused about something I read on forward earnings estimates.

Consider this:
(4/10/14) SPX Forward 4-quarter earnings estimate $122.77. P.E. ratio 15(x) PEG 1.98(x)
(4/10/15) SPX Forward 4-quarter earnings estimate $123.49. P.E ratio 7(x). PEG ratio is 29.5(x)
(4/10/16) SPX Forward 4-quarter earnings estimate $123.50. P.E ratio: 16.4(x) PEG ratio: 17.3(x)

(4/10/14) SPX closed at 1833.08
(4/10/16) SPX closed at 2050

- Now consider that there have been nearly 2 trillion in corporate stock buy backs by SP500 companies over the last 3 years. Using back of the napkin math, I estimate that this has reduced the cumulative float of the SPX by a little more then 30%.

- Someone rightfully pointed out that the dollar rose precipitously in 2014 which has impaired profitability.

- This is true but doesn't come close to filling the delta between earnings / lower cumulative float (which has artificially reduced PE, presumably by the same 30%)

- When one considers that most of those buy backs have been financed by newly issued corporate debt, facilitated by ZIRP, we get a very interesting picture.

2 trillion in new debt, declining earnings, and a rising interest rate environment.

Given all this, I am curious exactly what the talking heads will use as catalyst for further price expansion. Unless the dollar drop precipitously, 2134 looks to be the zenith of this bull market.

JMO of course.

[Trades with cats]

Never Forget!
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent." from A. Gary Shilling, Forbes (1993) v. 151, iss. 4, p. 236.

Have a good weekend. I will be pretending to be a peasant farmer turning over my garden with nothing for help as cold beer is not allowed on the new diet